This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Game 1 went pretty much as expected. Denver got out to an early lead, and it was never really close in the second half. They actually led by at least nine points for the closing 30 minutes while up by 21 at the half. While Miami has been shocking their opponents throughout this postseason run, it's hard to imagine that happening again here. My pick is for Denver to close this thing out in five games, which would potentially make this my final Sunday article of the season. We're hoping that isn't the case. But if it is, I want to thank all of you for reading throughout the year!
Guards
Jamal Murray, DEN vs. MIA ($37)
When do we start talking about how Murray is one of the best NBA postseason performers? In Denver's two most recent playoff runs, he's averaging 27 points, 5.1 rebounds, 6.4 assists and 1.3 steals per game. It's the role that makes Murray really valuable since he's averaging nearly 40 minutes and over 20 shots. He's been even better this year with at least 40 Yahoo points in 10 of his last 12 outings while generating a 48-point average.
Gabe Vincent, MIA at DEN ($15)
Vincent is being valued like a role player coming off the bench, and that's simply not who he is anymore. He's been Miami's starting point guard the last few months while averaging 25 Yahoo points across 33 minutes a night over his last 15 outings. GV also boasts a 27-point average in his last four fixtures and is becoming one of the Heat's key offensive figures. As long as Vincent's logging 35 minutes and taking double-digit shots, his salary should never remain this low.
Guard to Avoid
Kyle Lowry, MIA at DEN ($13)
Lowry has been limping around in every playoff game, and it's sad to watch the former All-Star struggle so badly. Over his last seven games, he's averaging 18 Yahoo points across 24 minutes. That looks even worse when diving into Lowry's subpar shooting as he's only averaging 6.1 raw points during that span. The potential return of Tyler Herro makes Lowry's prospects even scarier as that will take away minutes, touches and shots.
Forwards
Jimmy Butler, MIA at DEN ($42)
Butler has struggled with his shot of late, but he's still enjoying an epic playoff run. The feisty forward is averaging 27.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 2.0 steals over his last 20 outings. That's less surprising when digging into Butler's postseason numbers as he's averaging 27.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 2.1 steals across the last two playoffs. He's also destroyed Denver the last two years by posting a 45-point average against.
Caleb Martin, MIA at DEN ($18)
Martin really let his team down in the opener, but he should bounce back Sunday. He was arguably the most valuable player in the Eastern Conference Finals with at least 32 Yahoo points in five of seven games. Martin also scored 46 Y! during the final two of that series and is being leaned on as one of the offensive focal points. All we need is 25-30 fantasy points for him be a solid value, and we'll bet on him returning to that form we witnessed in the previous round.
Forward to Avoid
Aaron Gordon, DEN vs. MIA ($21)
Gordon was the star of the first quarter in Game 1, but didn't do anything outside of that. The Nuggets chose to exploit his fantastic matchup, but Miami responded and held him down across the final three quarters with 12 points and four rebounds across the opening eight minutes but only four points, two rebounds and one assist from the other 28 minutes. The Heat's top-5 defense made some critical adjustments, and we hate AG's form coming into this series since he's scored 18 or fewer fantasy points from four of his previous five appearances while only averaging 23 Y!.
Centers
Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. MIA ($56)
It didn't even feel like Jokic went off Thursday, but he finished with 27 points, 10 rebounds and 14 assists in another masterclass performance. The two-time MVP is making history these playoffs as he's averaging 32 points, 13.5 rebounds, 10.8 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks over the last 13 outings. That equates to over 70 Yahoo points per game, and there's simply no chance you can fade Jokic on a single-game slate.
Bam Adebayo, MIA at DEN ($27)
Adebayo carried Miami in Game 1, and he's got the best individual matchup of anyone on the floor. Jokic is the league's best offensive player, but he's also a terrible defender. That was on full display when Bam racked up 48 Yahoo points in the opener. The big man averaged nearly 40 Y! during the regular season and has posted at least 32 fantasy points from 11 of his last 13 outings.
