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Slate Overview
DEN at MIA: The Nuggets lead the series 2-1 after they bounced back from a home loss in Game 2 by stealing Game 3 in Miami. It marked the third home loss of the postseason for the Heat, who are 6-3 at Kaseya Center heading into Game 4.
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Injuries to Monitor
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MIA - Tyler Herro (hand): OUT
Elite Players
Guards
Jamal Murray, Nuggets ($17,400) at Heat
Murray put up a performance for the ages alongside his partner in crime, Nikola Jokic, as they each tallied 30-point triple-doubles in Game 3, becoming the first teammates in NBA history to do so in the same game. Murray finished with 66 DK points in the game, marking the fifth time in the last seven outings that he went over 50.
Caleb Martin, Heat ($9,300) vs. Nuggets
Martin played 32 minutes off the bench in Game 3 and totaled 22.8 DK points, with 10 points, three rebounds, three assists and two steals. He moved back to the bench as a result of playing through an illness in Game 2, but prior to that, he tallied 48 DK points in back-to-back outings. Martin is averaging 12.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 0.9 steals per game through the postseason.
Forwards/Centers
Jimmy Butler, Heat ($18,300) vs. Nuggets
Butler totaled 38 DK points in the last outing, standing as the second time he finished with less than 40 DK points in the first three games of the Finals. The Heat superstar is averaging 27.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 1.8 steals through 20 appearances in the postseason, including four games with more than 60 DK points.
Aaron Gordon, Nuggets ($9,900) at Heat
Gordon logged a double-double with 11 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and a steal in Game 3, for a total of 34.5 DK points. He surpassed 25 DK points in all three Finals games so far, and he is averaging 13.0 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game in the postseason.
Bam Adebayo, Heat ($14,100) vs. Nuggets
Adebayo has put up three strong games to start the Finals, including two with more than 50 DK points, while averaging 23.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.0 blocks per outing. He will continue to have his hands full on defense, but his offensive game should continue to work well as a method to put pressure on the Nuggets' star frontcourt.
Expected Chalk
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets ($23,400) at Heat
Jokic has eight triple-doubles in the last 11 games, including a total of 80.8 DK points in the previous outing, with 32 points, 21 rebounds, 10 assists and two blocks in 44 minutes of action. The Nuggets' big man is just nine rebounds away from becoming the first player in NBA history to amass 500 points, 250 rebounds and 150 assists in a single postseason, and he is more than likely to reach that mark, as he is averaging 30.5 points, 13.4 rebounds, 10.1 assists, 1.0 steals and 0.9 blocks through the playoffs.
Value Picks
Gabe Vincent, Heat ($9,000) vs. Nuggets
Despite averaging 13.6 points, 1.6 rebounds and 3.7 assists through the postseason, Vincent finished with just 11.5 DK points in Game 3. He should get back on track, as he showed he can be a difference-maker against the Nuggets with 33 DK points in Games 1 and 2.
Bruce Brown, Nuggets ($7,500) at Heat
Brown topped 20 DK points in Games 1 and 2, but he finished with a total of 13.5 in Game 3. Brown is averaging 11.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.1 steals through the postseason and is likely to continue producing solid DK totals thanks to his multi-faceted effort.
Max Strus, Heat ($6,600) vs. Nuggets
Strus hit at least 20 DK points in the last two games, picking up his pace relative to the previous few outings. He is averaging 5.7 points, 3.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists through three games in the Finals, and he is shooting an average of 41.3 percent from the field at home in the postseason.
Duncan Robinson, Heat ($4,800) vs. Nuggets
Robinson shot 5-of-9 from long range over the last two games and is shooting 44.2 percent from long range at home in the playoffs. He will continue to fill a significant role in the absence of Tyler Herro (hand), averaging 18 minutes of playing time over the last 15 outings.
Kevin Love, Heat ($) vs. Nuggets
After an impressive effort with a total of 25 DK points in Game 2, Love came up flat with just 9.5 DK points in Game 2. Nonetheless, the veteran big man should be set to bounce back at home, where he is shooting 40 percent from long range in the postseason.