Handicapping the NBA: Thursday Picks

Handicapping the NBA: Thursday Picks

This article is part of our NBA Picks series.

Alex Barutha: Lakers (-195) vs DEN -- DraftKings, 1:00 PM CT

The Nuggets' defense is slowly improving, and they aren't a complete disaster on that end of the floor anymore. Still, I like the Lakers here. We know LA can get hot offensively, but more importantly, they have the defensive talent to make life difficult for Denver. I'm banking on the Lakers doing everything possible to force the ball out of Jokic's hands, forcing Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. to beat them. I think, in general, that's a winning strategy and something the Lakers can pull off with the talent they have.

Nick Whalen: Anthony Davis OVER 8.5 rebounds (+100) vs. DEN -- DraftKings Sportsbook

Looking back to the 2020 postseason, Davis had at least nine rebounds in two of five games against the Nuggets. He's coming off of his worst rebounding game of the season (2 REB vs. ATL on Monday), but the numbers suggest Davis can bounce back. Prior to Monday, Davis had grabbed six or fewer rebounds three times this season. Each time, he followed up with double-digit rebounds in the next game. I like that trend to continue Thursday, as I expect Davis -- and the Lakers coaching staff -- to make it a point of emphasis that he doesn't spend all night hanging out on the perimeter. 

Joe Bartel: Kyle Kuzma under 10.5 points (+100) - (DraftKings Sportsbook 11:14 AM CT)

If Anthony Davis (quad) is out for whatever reason I'd run away from this bet entirely, but there doesn't seem to be any indication that will be the case. As it stands, I'm pretty surprised to see Kuzma's O/U point total so high. The 25-year-old is averaging just 9.9 points and 24.0 minutes per game, both career lows, and those numbers are buoyed somewhat by games in which Davis and other starters have missed. It's not just that though -- the forward has crossed the over just twice in the last seven games and one of those came when Davis was out entirely. There really wasn't a lot of value on this slate altogether so I wanted to target a bet with the best odds-to-hit ratio, but regardless taking the under feels like a smart play.

Ken Crites: I'm taking the OVER on Donovan Mitchell scoring 23.5 points at Atlanta

Mitchell is hot, averaging 24.7 points per game in his last 13 contests while shooting 46.2% from the field. The Hawks rank 13th in points allowed per game (110.6), but are missing defensive wing stopper De'Andre Hunter. I think Mitchell will light up Kevin Huerter, Trae Young and Cam Reddish. Clint Capela is definitely helping Atlanta's interior D, but the Hawks are ugly on the perimeter without Hunter.

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ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Joe Bartel
Joe Bartel is RotoWire's Operations Specialist and football contributor among many other things. When not at the office, he's probably playing a variety of Gen 4 console games or rooting on his beloved Green Bay Packers.
Alex Barutha
Alex is RotoWire's Chief NBA Editor. He writes articles about daily fantasy, year-long fantasy and sports betting. You can hear him on the RotoWire NBA Podcast, Sirius XM, VSiN and other platforms. He firmly believes Robert Covington is the most underrated fantasy player of the past decade.
Ken
An early RotoWire contributor from the 90's, K-Train returns with the grace of Gheorghe Muresan and the wisdom of Joe Gibbs. Ken is a two-time FSWA award winner and a co-host on the RW NBA Podcast. Championships incude: 2016 RW Staff NBA Keeper, 2019 RW Staff NFL Ottoneu Keeper, 2022-23 SiriusXM NBA Experts, 2022-23 SiriusXM NBA Kamla Keeper and 2023-24 FSGA NBA Expert Champions. Ken still owns a RotoNews shirt.
Nick Whalen
Now in his 10th year with the company, Nick is RotoWire's Senior Media Analyst, a position he took on after several years as the Head of Basketball Content. A multi-time FSGA and FSWA award winner, Nick co-hosts RotoWire's flagship show on Sirius XM Fantasy alongside Jeff Erickson, as well as The RotoWire NBA Show on Sirius XM NBA with Alex Barutha. He also co-hosts RotoWire's Football and Basketball podcasts. You can catch Nick's NBA and NFL analysis on VSiN and DraftKings, as well as RotoWire's various social and video channels. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram @wha1en.
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