This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Wednesday's massive 13-game slate brings some game theory into play as you make your selections. With 26 teams playing, there will be a plethora of guys worthy of a roster spot. The key to slates of this size is finding usable guys that will be less popular. We'll talk about this issue a bit more after checking in with the Vegas numbers.
SLATE OVERVIEW
PHI (-6.5) @ CHA O/U: 217.5
CLE (-2.5) vs. CHI O/U: 211
WAS (-5.5) @ DET O/U: 208.5
IND (-4.5) vs. NYK O/U: 212.5
MIL (-5.5) @ MIA O/U: 214.5
TOR (-6.5) vs. OKC O/U:208.5
BKN (-6.5) @ HOU O/U: 225
MEM (-4.5) vs. DAL O/U:215.5
UTA (-8.5) @ MIN O/U: 219.5
DEN (-2) @ NOR O/U: 214.5
GSW (-13.5) vs. POR O/U: 218.5
SAC (-7) vs. ORL O/U: 220
LAC (2.5) vs. BOS O/U: 212.5
Let's continue our game theory discussion further. A cursory look at the pool reveals a lot of injury scenarios and value plays, and while there is merit to playing some of them, it's essential to not get too cute and fancy with these options. Find sound reasoning for why you feel compelled to spend down. Finding value accomplishes two things. It allows you to play more expensive options and opens the door for low-rostership opportunities in game-time calls (including rest days). We still have the Charlotte scenario as an example of the first reason, and the slew of questionable calls in Portland is an excellent example of the second reason. There is a considerable gap between the early and late games, leaving a trio of games at 10 p.m. ET. It makes sense to lock up some Portland value early, with the ability to late-swap once the starting lineup is announced.
INJURIES
PHI Tyrese Maxey (non-COVID illness) - QUESTIONABLE
If Maxey cannot suit up, Shake Milton ($4,900) and Seth Curry ($5,600) should see a usage boost against Charlotte.
CHA LaMelo Ball (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
CHA Terry Rozier (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
CHA Mason Plumlee (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
CHA Ish Smith (COVID -19 Protocols) - OUT
CHA Jalen McDaniels (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
The COVID-19 absences in Charlotte still reap a mountain of value, although some of the salaries have increased due to the length of the scenario. P.J. Washington ($7,200) is my favorite ply of the group, with Cody Martin ($6,000) coming in a close second. Miles Bridges ($8,400) is expensive but entirely in play here. James Bouknight ($4,000) and Nick Richards ($4,800) are candidates for increased minutes off the bench. Kelly Oubre ($6,800) also stands out as an excellent value despite a slight salary increase.
CHI DeMar DeRozan (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
CHI Alex Caruso (hamstring) - OUT
DeRozan's absence is a chance for Zach LaVine ($9,100) to take over a game. Lonzo Ball ($7,700) and Derrick Jones ($4,400) are also great plays amid the absences.
IND T.J. McConnell (wrist) - OUT
IND Justin Holiday (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Hiding away in the basement is Oshae Brissett ($3,800), who played 28 minutes and posted 28 FP in his last game. Although there's no direct correlation to the absences, he seems to be seeing more time in the scenario and won't be especially visible on this slate.
MIA Jimmy Butler (tailbone) -OUT
MIA Bam Adebayo (thumb) -OUT
Tyler Herro ($6,800) remains a great pivot option in this scenario. Dewayne Dedmon ($5,900) will also continue to start in Adebayo's place.
HOU Kevin Porter (thigh) - OUT
HOU Jalen Green (hamstring) - OUT
Jae'Sean Tate ($7,400) and James Harden weren't big fans of each other during their time as teammates, so I want to play the narrative there. Garrison Mathews ($4,700) and Eric Gordon ($5,200) will also step it up in the backcourt.
DAL Kristaps Porzingis (possible rest)
It wouldn't surprise me to see Porzingus sit in the back-to-back. Dorian Finney-Smith ($5,500) has played well in the rotation and stands to benefit from a Porzingis absence.
MEM Kyle Anderson (back) - DOUBTFUL
John Konchar ($4,000) and Xavier Tillman ($4,200) have enjoyed increased run during Anderson's absence.
MIN Karl-Anthony Towns (tailbone) - QUESTIONABLE
MIN D'Angelo Russell (ankle) - PROBABLE
Naz Reid ($5,000) will draw the start if Towns doesn't suit up.
POR Damian Lillard (abdomen) - OUT
POR CJ McCollum (lung) - OUT
POR Anfernee Simons (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
POR Nassir Little (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
POR Ben McLemore (hip) - QUESTIONABLE
You can now understand why late-swapping Portland options are so important. You can lock Norman Powell ($5,200) in, but if Simons can go, guys like Dennis Smith ($5,500) and Ben McLemore $4,000) will no longer be as viable. There's a possibility McLemore won't play, which would put Smith right back into the center of the conversation.
ELITE PLAYERS
Nikola Jokic ($11,000) will probably play tonight, and despite his lofty salary, he is a solid option against the Pelicans. There are some value centers on the docket as well, but the next big man up in the elite category for me would be Rudy Gobert ($8,800) against a Minnesota team that could be without Karl-Anthony Towns. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200) has eligibility at PF and C, and although there is some blowout risk against Miami, I can't find a good reason to stay away from him.
At guard, Stephen Curry ($10,700) also has some blowout risk, but he could go off in three quarters against Portland. Luka Doncic ($9,900) will look to bounce back from a poor game on the front end of a back-to-back, and he is more of a contrarian elite for me. Although James Harden ($10,200) has faced his former team before, it makes sense to play the narrative against his former team in Houston. The Rockets have recently won a few games, so there might be extra motivation for Harden to put Houston in its place.
Also consider: Jayson Tatum, BOS ($9,700) @ LAC
EXPECTED CHALK AND CORE TARGETS
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC ($8,700) @ TOR
SGA is an excellent example of a less-popular core player. He returned to action with a 56-FP total thanks to a huge 30/13 line against the Pistons, and he faces another soft team in the Raptors, who rank near the button in opposing field-goal and three-point percentage. Although we tend to hold our noses when clicking on the Thunder, SGA is checking all the boxes currently.
Pascal Siakam, TOR ($8,000) vs. OKC
Siakam continues to work back to 100 percent, but I believe his salary is an excellent value spot against the Thunder. He's had two games with 40-or-more FPs in two of his past three games and enjoys dual eligibility, allowing him to fit in multiple places. The Thunder are a horrible rebounding team, so tonight, look for a double/double in Siakam's future. Fred VanVleet ($7,900) is another Toronto player who could smash in this spot.
Tobias Harris, PHI ($7,600) @ CHA
Harris' game goes off early, but he could be a great beginning core for many of your lineups. We have immediate game data for this matchup, and Harris excelled with a superb 48-FP performance. He's one reason why Joel Embiid didn't make my list in the elite section, as I think there's a nightly possibility that Harris' salary difference can pay off the point differential between the two players.
Malcolm Brogdon, IND ($7,400) vs., NYK
There are interesting options like Brandon Ingram and Christian Wood around this price point, but I will take Brogdon almost every time. When he can match big assist numbers with his usual batch of rebounds, the Pacers point guard will pop for colossal production. I also like Caris LeVert ($5,100) as I think the Pacers will play him as they search for a suitor before the trade deadline, but Brogdon is the chalk play here.
Also consider: Cole Anthony, ORL ($8,200), Wendell Carter, ORL ($6,500)
VALUE PLAYS
I don't have to tell you where the real value is tonight. You'll have to do a little late-swap work, but the best deals lie in the injury section. Here are some more values that slipped through the cracks.
Jaren Jackson, MEM ($6,300) vs. DAL
Jackson should have a cameo in a Roney Dangerfield movie because he continues to get no respect from the fantasy sites. His upside makes this salary point almost ridiculous, and I think the same can be said for Dillon Brooks ($5,900). With Ja Morant out for an extended period, Brooks and Triple-J are on notice to be the linchpins of this offense in the paint, and so far, they've delivered. I love both of them at these salaries.
Jusuf Nurkic, POR ($6,300) @ GSW
If things line up perfectly for Jurkic, he could end up as one of the best values in the game. With a backcourt in disarray, it makes sense for whoever is remaining to attack the Warriors. While you can't call Golden State a small-ball team with Draymond Green patrolling the baseline, utilizing Nurkic to the maximum seems the best way for Portland to have a chance against the red-hot Warriors. This is a combo matchup/instinct call, but I think it's worthwhile.
Nicolas Claxton, BKN ($3,600) @ HOU
You should probably wait on this call, but with the back-to-back and a weak opponent, there's a possibility that Steve Nash might sit LaMarcus Aldridge. That event would put Claxton at the forefront, and he could quickly meet value if he draws the start.
Ayo Dosunmu, CHI ($4,800) @ CLE
Dosunmo provided a diverse stat line, and he should continue to see a lot of minutes while DeRozan sits. As he gets more comfortable with the starters, his already-solid assist and rebound numbers should rise along with his scoring output
You will notice that Paul George and the Clippers did not get much exposure tonight, but they will come into play as contrarian options when it is time to late-swap Portland players. you can gain some roster diversity by reaching for value options there.
