This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Thursday's two-game postseason ledger features a pivotal Game 3 in the Celtics-Raptors series, along with a series opener over in the West between the Nuggets and Clippers that includes a notable rest advantage for Los Angeles. Health is largely good across all four rosters, meaning we'll see each team going against their opponent at full strength. However, it could be a lower-scoring night for DFS purposes, as the projected totals check in at 215 and 223 points, respectively.
We'll begin by diving into the projected total for the two games, followed by an examination of the general state of each position, a review of key injuries and a look at expected chalk plays and both under-the-radar and popular value plays to consider.
Before delving into the slate, a reminder that FanDuel has reverted to its previous format of NOT dropping the lowest scoring in lineups after a one-year experiment with that feature. Therefore, it will be important to be prudent with each selection, as each player's total will count toward your final score.
Without further ado, let's get into Thursday's slate!
Slate Overview
Here's a further look at the two games on Thursday's slate:
Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics (Projected total: 215.0 points)
It's already crunch time for the Raptors, which can't afford another loss after barely dropping Game 2 on Tuesday night. The issue for Toronto is a lack of offense, as they've failed to hit the 100-point mark in each of the first two games of the series. Kyle Lowry, who's still reportedly battling ankle soreness, is just 10-for-28 from the floor over the first pair of contests, while backcourt mate Fred VanVleet is an even worse 11-for-38 in that span. VanVleet's problems against Boston notably extend beyond the current series, as he also shot just 33.8 percent versus the Celts over four regular-season games. Given the two squads have combined for 206 and 201 points in the first two installments of the series, this total seems reasonable, even when factoring in a potential shooting improvement and more aggressive mindset by the Raptors.
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers (Projected total: 223.0 points)
Just 48 hours removed from an epic Game 7 win over the Jazz, the likely tired Nuggets are right back on the floor against a Clippers team that's had the benefit of three full days of rest between their own series-clinching win against the Mavs on Sunday and Thursday's semifinal-round opener. It's worth noting the last two games of the three-game regular-season series between the teams finished with a combined 235 points apiece, and the first one finished with a total of 218. Consequently, even factoring in Denver could have some sluggish legs, this contest could certainly exceed the 220-point mark, especially considering Kawhi Leonard and Paul George shot 50.9 percent and 51.4 percent, respectively, in a combined five regular-season games versus the Nuggets.
Positional Breakdown
PG: Jamal Murray, Kyle Lowry and Kemba Walker head up the pool here, which already makes it a very strong position group. Additionally, Lou Williams, Reggie Jackson and Patrick Beverley, the latter expected to return from his calf injury, are strong value options, while Monte Morris and Reggie Jackson could also see a solid minutes load at bargain prices.
SG: Shooting guard has a clean bill of health and a strong trio up top as well in the form of Paul George, Fred VanVleet and Marcus Smart. There are some viable cost-savings options as well, with Norman Powell, Torrey Craig, Landry Shamet and Gary Harris all carrying some risk but offering serviceable upside if they log enough minutes and get hot.
SF: Kawhi Leonard isn't going to come cheap at $10.5K, but he earned the boost after exploding for 72.3 FD points in the Game 6 win over the Mavs and scoring no fewer than 50 FD points during the series. Pascal Siakam and Jaylen Brown are very strong pivots off Leonard, while OG Anunoby and Jerami Grant could pay off nicely as value plays.
PF: There's pretty solid depth here across the pricing spectrum, as Jayson Tatum, Serge Ibaka, Daniel Theis, Michael Porter and Marcus Morris are all options that can fit varying budgets. Paul Millsap and JaMychal Green are two bargain-bin selections that have a chance to offer a solid return at low rostering rate in tournaments.
C: This is an interesting position group overall, as you have Nikola Jokic as the one elite option and a number of value choices in the form of the Clippers duo of Montrezl Harrell and Ivica Zubac, as well as Marc Gasol and Robert Williams. Enes Kanter would normally also be included in the conversation, but Brad Stevens has left the big man on the bench altogether during each of the first two games of the series against the Raptors.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
Patrick Beverley, LAC (calf)
Beverley is expected to play in Game 1, which could lead to a significant boost for the Clippers' defensive outlook. The veteran will likely spend a substantial amount of time on the Nuggets' Jamal Murray. If Beverley immediately reclaims a starring role, the playing time of both Reggie Jackson and Landry Shamet would likely take a hit.
Other injuries to monitor:
Vlatko Cancar, DEN (foot)- OUT
Longer-term injuries/absences: Gordon Hayward, BOS; Javonte Green, BOS; Patrick McCaw, TOR; Oshae Brissett, TOR; Will Barton, DEN
Elite Players
We have just one five-figure salary player in Kawhi Leonard ($10.5K), who, as mentioned earlier, has earned the distinction with a stellar postseason thus far that consists of averages of 32.8 points (on 53.8 percent shooting), 10.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 2.3 steals. Nikola Jokic ($9.8K), Jayson Tatum ($9.2K) and Jamal Murray ($9K) follow Leonard on the salary scale, and all three have certainly proven capable of providing at least a 5x return on their costs this postseason. Murray does potentially carry a bit of a caveat, however, as he could be suffering some fatigue after such a difficult series against the Jazz that ended just two nights prior. Additionally, the expected return of Beverley for the Clippers could make getting open shots a lot more challenging.
Beyond that group, consider Pascal Siakam ($8.2K), Kyle Lowry ($7.8K) and Paul George ($7.7K) as the three next-less-expensive candidates likely to offer elite-level production on their salaries. Lowry has struggled in the first two games against the Celtics but shot better than 50.0 percent against them in the regular season, while George, as alluded to earlier, also did very well against the Nuggets during this past campaign.
Expected Chalk
All of the players just listed in the prior section are certainly going to be on plenty of rosters, along with many of the talented mid-priced players with secure roles such as Kemba Walker, Fred VanVleet, Jaylen Brown and Serge Ibaka.
As usual, I've also compiled the names of some sub-$6K value plays that should also find themselves on plenty of rosters and listed them under the next section.
Key Values
Montrezl Harrell, LAC vs. DEN ($4,900)
One would never have placed Harrell into the "under the radar" value category during his spectacular regular season, especially because his salary would never have allowed it. However, a number of mostly underwhelming performances since making his Orlando debut in Game 1 of the quarterfinal-round series against the Mavericks have greatly lowered both price and expectations for the energetic big man. Harrell has only had one breakout game – he posted 34.7 FD points in Game 5 – and he's logged over 20 minutes in just two of his first six games. However, this small layoff for L.A. likely served as a good chance for coach Doc Rivers and Harrell to take a breath and evaluate his performance, and with rested legs and his conditioning likely back to normal levels, he's likely in for a role much closer to his regular-season one in this second round. Harrell averaged a whopping 43.3 FD points in two regular-season contests against the Nuggets and has already provided at least a 5x return on his current salary on 48 occasions this season, making a strong case for considering him, especially in large-field tourneys at what could be a lower rostering percentage than usual.
JaMychal Green, LAC vs. DEN ($3,700)
Green always seems to be largely ignored in DFS circles, as his returns are admittedly not often anything that will be a difference-maker in tournaments. Nevertheless, the veteran big man can space the floor effectively and is trusted by coach Doc Rivers, meaning he should once again enjoy a secure role in the frontcourt rotation during the semifinal round. Green logged double-digit minutes in each of the six quarterfinal-round games against the Mavericks, and although he certainly had a couple of duds, he also provided 14.5 and 14.6 FD points in two other contests. Looking back to the regular season, Green provided at least 5x return on his current salary in 24 games (only one of them a start), and he'll be facing a Nuggets squad that's allowed the second-highest shooting percentage (47.9) to opposing second units, including the highest three-point percentage (37.9) to bench players.
Other under-the-radar value plays to consider: Norman Powell, TOR vs. BOS ($4,700); Paul Millsap, DEN vs. LAC ($4,100); Mason Plumlee, DEN VS. LAC ($3,500)
Popular value plays to consider: Marcus Smart, BOS ($5,700); Lou Williams, LAC ($5,300); OG Anunoby, TOR ($5,300); Michael Porter, DEN ($5,100); Ivica Zubac, LAC ($4,900); Jerami Grant, DEN ($4,800); Torrey Craig, DEN ($4,200); Robert Williams, BOS ($3,800)
