FanDuel NBA: Thursday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Thursday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

The postseason rolls on Thursday with another four-game slate that features the second go-around for teams that played their Game 1s on Tuesday. All eyes will certainly be on the Trail Blazers-Lakers nightcap after Portland's Game 1 upset, but there's arguably just as much intrigue in the Magic-Bucks rematch after Orlando also pulled quite the surprise in their opening salvo versus Milwaukee. Meanwhile, the Heat-Pacers and Thunder-Rockets battles are from curtain-jerking preliminaries.

We'll begin by diving into the three games with particularly high projected totals Thursday, and we'll proceed to examine the general state of each position, review key injuries and delve into expected chalk plays and both under-the-radar and popular value plays to consider.

Before delving into the slate, a reminder that FanDuel has reverted to its previous format of NOT dropping the lowest scoring in lineups after a one-year experiment with that feature. Therefore, it will be important to be prudent with each selection, as each player's total will count toward your final score.

Without further ado, let's get into Thursday's slate!

Slate Overview

Here's a further look at the games with the three highest-projected totals on Thursday's slate:

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers (Projected total: 229.0 points) 

Despite the fact these two teams combined for just 193 points in Game 1, this is the highest projected total on the slate. Oddsmakers clearly believe there will be much more of an offensive breakout, and there's certainly no shortage of stars that can light up the scoreboard between these two squads. All of the big names on either side are undoubtedly in play during what should be another wire-to-wire battle.

Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks (Projected total: 227.0 points) 

Sort of lost in the hoopla of the Trail Blazers' upset of the Lakers was the fact the Magic shocked the Bucks with 122 points and a double-digit win in Game 1. Orlando hadn't scored more than 101 points in any of their four regular-season meetings against Milwaukee, and the Bucks themselves had actually put up 111 points or fewer in three of those contests. Nevertheless, oddsmakers clearly believe there's another offensive breakout likely in Game 2, despite the fact these two teams boast superior defenses.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets (Projected total: 226.0 points) 

The two teams combined for 231 points Tuesday despite Russell Westbrook's absence for the Rockets. That total was particularly noteworthy when considering the two teams' prior three meetings finished with totals of 228, 205 and 219 points. Jeff Green and Eric Gordon did step up impressively to help fill the scoring vacuum created by Westbrook's absence, so perhaps this total is right in line with expectations.

Positional Breakdown

PG: Naturally, Russell Westbrook's ongoing absence looms extremely large, but that same level of elite production is still available via Damian Lillard. Chris Paul, Malcolm Brogdon, Goran Dragic and even Eric Bledsoe are solid alternatives if you need to pay down to a degree.  

SG: James Harden didn't exactly explode for one of his top-end efforts in Game 1 despite Westbrook's absence, but he still provided a stellar 37-point, 11-rebound double-double and is a clear-cut top choice at the position. Jimmy Butler, CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton form a solid second tier, but if Victor Oladipo is forced to sit out with his eye injury, that would naturally thin things out a bit.

SF: The duo of Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James are an elite duo up top, but if you're unable to afford their five-figure salaries, T.J. Warren, Danilo Gallinari and Carmelo Anthony offer solid upside at much less expense. Meanwhile, Eric Gordon could turn out to be one of the best point-per-dollar values of the slate in Westbrook's absence.

PF:  Anthony Davis is the most expensive option overall and is fully expected to play through his knee soreness, while Bam Adebayo, Robert Covington, Kyle Kuzma and Jeff Green are all lower-salaried options at different price points that could offer strong value. Aaron Gordon's 50/50 status and Zach Collins' confirmed absence does affect depth to an extent.

C: Nikola Vucevic is at the top of the heap and is coming off a 35-point, 14-rebound double-double in Game 1, while Jusuf Nurkic, Myles Turner and Steven Adams are some of your top options below him if you're budgeting at the position. However, there are scarce viable options below that trio.

Injury Situations to Monitor

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

Russell Westbrook, HOU (quadriceps) 

Westbrook is out for Game 2. Eric Gordon, Jeff Green and Ben McLemore all thrived in Westbrook's absence in Houston's Game 1 victory.

LeBron James, LAL (groin) 

James is probable with the groin soreness that's plagued him on and off for several months. He's fully expected to play.

Anthony Davis, LAL (knee) 

Davis is probable with right knee soreness and is fully expected to play in Game 2. 

Victor Oladipo, IND (eye) 

Oladipo is considered a game-time decision after getting poked in the eye in Game 1 on Tuesday. If he's unable to go, Aaron Holiday and Edmond Sumner may be the direct beneficiaries in terms of shooting guard minutes, while the usage for the rest of the starting five should see a boost. 

Jae Crowder, MIA (ankle) 

Crowder carries a questionable tag to face the Pacers in Game 2.

Rajon Rondo, LAL (thumb)   

Rondo is considered questionable for Game 2 and may have a realistic chance to make his Orlando debut. He was able to practice Monday, which lends credence to the notion he may be able to suit up.

Luguentz Dort, OKC (knee) 

Dort is out for Game 2, likely leaving small forward duties to Andre Roberson and Terrance Ferguson. 

Aaron Gordon, ORL (hamstring)

Gordon is questionable for Game 2 after sitting out Game 1. If he's unable to suit up, Gary Clark may draw the start at power forward again in his stead. 

Michael Carter-Williams, ORL (foot) 

Carter-Williams is doubtful for Game 2.

Zach Collins, POR (ankle) 

Collins will not play in Game 2 against the Lakers. 

Other injuries to monitor

Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (elbow) - OUT 

Longer-term injuries of note: Nassir Little, POR

Elite Players

Despite a four-game slate, we have five players with five-figure salaries – James Harden ($11.8K), Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11.3K), LeBron James ($10.5K), Anthony Davis ($10.4K) and Damian Lillard ($10K). Naturally, there's a case to be made for all of them, but perhaps none of them carry a better combination of price and expected usage than Lillard, who's simply taken his already highly impressive game to another level in Orlando.

As alluded to earlier, Vucevic ($8.3K) is one player below that salary level that can certainly provide elite-level numbers, as already demonstrated in the Magic's Game 1 upset.

Expected Chalk

We'll unsurprisingly see all of the names just mentioned in the prior section in plenty of rosters. Additionally, we can expect Eric Gordon to get an abundance of clicks on his name due to a combination of his $4.9K salary and his strong 21-point tally in Game 1.

As usual, I've also compiled the names of some sub-$6K value plays that should also find themselves on plenty of rosters and listed them under the next section.

Key Values

Danuel House, HOU vs. OKC ($4,200)

Eric Gordon ($4.9K) and Jeff Green ($5.1K) are two other excellent value Rockets options, and accordingly, their names are included in the list below this section. However, House is another member of Houston's rotation that will fit the "under-the-radar" description much more. The versatile wing averaged 21.6 FD points per game this season, and his return Tuesday from a toe injury that cost him the last three seeding games resulted in 17.7 FD points over a robust 28 minutes. House's playing time was one of the most encouraging aspects of his night, and given his above-average three-point shooting, he carries notably more upside. In fact, House scored 22.1 to 32.5 FD points in four of his first five seeding games, and he delivered at least a 5x return on his current salary on 32 occasions in 63 games this season.

JaKarr Sampson, IND vs. MIA ($3,600) 

Sampson appears to have a trustworthy role at the moment with the Pacers still looking to make up for the ongoing absence of Domantas Sabonis (foot). Sampson logged 17 minutes in Tuesday's Game 1 loss to the Heat, posting 17.1 FD points during that time. He'd also garnered 21.0 and 21.8 FD points in the last two seeding games while logging spot starts, but he actually played just 16 and 23 minutes in those contests, allotments in the range of what he could see Thursday. Given a salary that's just $100 away from minimum, Sampson could well deliver a 5x-6x return and offer you considerable flexibility elsewhere in your lineup.

Other under-the-radar-plays to consider: Darius Bazley, OKC ($4,600); Doug McDermott, IND ($3,600)

Popular value plays to consider: Eric Bledsoe, MIL ($5,900); Steven Adams, OKC ($5,900); Carmelo Anthony, POR ($5,500); Markelle Fultz, ORL ($5,500); Dennis Schroder, OKC ($5,300); Terrence Ross, ORL ($5,300); Evan Fournier, ORL ($5,100); Jeff Green, HOU ($5,100); Eric Gordon, HOU ($4,900); D.J. Augustin, ORL ($4,700); Tyler Herro, MIA ($4,600); James Ennis, ORL ($4,300); Gary Trent, POR ($4,200)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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