This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
I actually covered this exact same slate on Friday and not much has changed since. What has changed is the direction of these series, with Milwaukee shockingly going down 3-0 to Miami and Los Angeles losing their opener against Houston. Both were surprising results and it adds some intrigue to this slate. With that in mind, let's get into it!
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel
Slate Overview
MIL-MIA: Milwaukee has been a favorite in every game of this series, but that's finally changed here. In fact, the Heat are a 1.5-point favorite, with the total sitting at 219.5.
HOU-LAL: After a shocking blowout win by Houston in Game 1, Los Angeles enters this matchup as a 5.5-point favorite with a total at 225.
Positional Breakdown
PG: Russell Westbrook remains pretty cheap at $9,000. Goran Dragic is balling out, sitting at $7,200. Eric Bledsoe represents a really good value at $5,200. Rajon Rondo, Alex Caruso and George Hill are all good plays in the mid-$4,000s.
SG: After a gem in Game 1, James Harden sits up top here at $11,000. Jimmy Butler is at $8,800, while Khris Middleton carries a $7,500 salary. Tyler Herro is a great value at $5,100. If you want someone cheap, you could punt with Danny Green, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Andre Iguodala or Duncan Robinson.
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo is up top here at $11,200, while LeBron James is at $10,500. Almost everyone will use one of them and they're likely going to pair them with either Eric Gordon at $5,600 or Jae Crowder at $5,100. Danuel House is interesting at $4,600.
PF: Anthony Davis is the king here at $11,400. Bam Adebayo follows him up at $8,200 while Robert Covington is at an even $7K. Jeff Green and Kyle Kuzma are also viable options below $5K.
C: We talked about this on Friday and this is easily the worst position on the slate. Brook Lopez is the highest-priced player at the position, just below $6K. P.J. Tucker is the only other guy worth considering at $5,300.
Injury Situations to Monitor
Thankfully, there are almost no notable injuries on this slate but there are a few things we need to keep an eye on.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
This is the one big injury we have to monitor. Giannis is questionable with an ankle injury and if he's out, look for Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe to be the best plays on the slate.
Kelly Olynyk (MIA)
Olynyk is questionable with a knee injury. He sat out Game 3 and likely won't play more than 20 minutes even if he is ready to go.
Andre Iguodala (MIA)
Iguodala suffered an ankle sprain in Game 2 but was able to suit up for Game 3. Look for him to play his usual 25 minutes here unless that bad boy swells up.
Danuel House (HOU)
House departed Game 1 with a head injury, but is not on the injury report.
Elite Players
These Miami, Milwaukee, Los Angeles and Houston slates are going to be difficult to figure out. The reason is because four superstars are available. Picking between James Harden, LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo is a tough task, especially since you can only squeeze two of them into your lineup. You can try to get three, but it leaves you awfully thin everywhere else. Out of these guys, Davis offers the best matchup. In terms of motivation, Antetokounmpo is your guy with his team down 3-0. These are going to be my two studs yet again, but don't forget about James just above $10,000.
Expected Chalk
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($11,200)
Giannis was the most-covered player on Friday's slate at 52 percent and we have to assume that will be the case again here if he plays. The simple fact is, the Bucks need to win. While that was the case in Game 3, it's undoubtedly a fact with his team down 3-0. That means we might finally get the 40-minute game we've all been waiting for, which is truly scary for a guy who barely cracked 30 minutes a game in the regular season and flirted with 60 FD points anyway. This might be one of those cases where you have to swallow the chalk and take the guaranteed 60 points. If he does end up sitting, Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton are also going to be used universally.
Brook Lopez, MIL ($5,800)
Lopez was actually in this section on Friday and proceeded to be in 42 percent of the lineups. That total was actually lower than I expected, and it may get even higher here. The reason for that is because P.J. Tucker is the only other viable center available, which is definitely not a great sign. Tucker was surprisingly only 23 percent covered and it's hard to understand what the other 35 percent were doing in that tourney. Anyways, Lopez will likely be in half the lineups on this slate.
Key Values
Jae Crowder, MIA ($5,100)
Crowder was in this section on Friday and we're going right back to the well. He's established himself as one of the most valuable players for the Heat, playing at least 34 minutes in all three games of this series. Crowder has also been productive with that playing time, averaging 26 FanDuel points per game. That means he should be about $500 higher and he's easily one of the best bets out there to surpass 5x value.
P.J. Tucker, HOU ($5,300)
Why was Tucker only used in 22 percent of lineups on Friday? That alone makes me want to use him again here, but it's hard to overlook his current role. Not only did he play 34.3 minutes per game during the regular season, Tucker is also averaging 24.3 FD points per game across 36 minutes of action over his last six fixtures. That even includes an unproductive blowout where he played just 21 minutes, making him a viable bet to play 40 minutes. One of the best parts about using Tucker is that we have a 20-point floor at the weakest position on the slate. He's way more trustworthy than Brook Lopez and costs way less.
Rajon Rondo, LAL ($4,700)
Rondo made his first appearance since the bubble began in Game 1, collecting 23 FD points across 24 minutes of action. This is someone who can always be productive when given the minutes. And if the opening loss was any indication, they need Rondo's play-making in the second unit. That makes him a huge value below $5K and he could be one of the best values if he plays 30 minutes against the fastest-paced team in the NBA.
