This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
After a small break, we're back at it with three critical games. We actually have two elimination matchups and one Game 1. That's super exciting for NBA fans and it will surely lead to starters playing huge minutes. That makes things a little easier on us and hopefully, we don't see any more injuries.
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel
Slate Overview
TOR-BOS: Toronto enters Game 1 as a 2.5-point favorite, with a total sitting at 216.
LAC-DAL: With Dallas facing elimination, Los Angeles comes in as a 9.5-point favorite, with a sky-high total of 238.
UTA-DEN: With Utah up 3-2 in the series, they enter this matchup as a 2.5-point favorite. The total is currently sitting at 219, down from the 222 opening.
Positional Breakdown
PG: Jamal Murray is playing the best basketball of his career and is up top here at $8,600. Kemba Walker and Kyle Lowry follow him up in the mid $7,000s. Mike Conley is currently at $6,700, while Lou Williams is at $5,800. Trey Burke, Seth Curry and Monte Morris are all viable at $5K or lower.
SG: Luka Doncic is the highest-priced player on the slate at $11,400. Donovan Mitchell is having a career series and sits at $8K. Paul George and Fred VanVleet are just below while Marcus Smart is one of the best values out there at $5,300. The cheap options at this position are not in consideration.
SF: Kawhi Leonard is the top dog here at $10,800. Pascal Siakam is at $8,500, while Jaylen Brown is $2K below. Dorian Finney-Smith and Tim Hardaway Jr are intriguing in the mid $5,000s. Joe Ingles and Jerami Grant are also in play around $5K.
PF: With Kristaps Porzingis out, Jayson Tatum represents the elite just below $10,000. Serge Ibaka is at $6,800, while Michael Porter Jr, Marcus Morris and Maxi Kleber sit in the $5,000s. Paul Millsap, Daniel Theis and Royce O'Neale all have upside at $5K or lower.
C: Nikola Jokic is at $9,300 in this elimination game. Rudy Gobert makes for a good option at $7,300. Montrezl Harrell sits at $5,700, while Ivica Zubac is just below $5K. Marc Gasol and Boban Marjanovic are viable if you're looking to punt.
Injuries to Monitor
Gordon Hayward (BOS)
Hayward has left the bubble to rehab his ankle issue. That means he'll miss at least the first three games of this series. Look for Marcus Smart to continue to start.
Kyle Lowry (TOR)
Lowry suffered a foot injury in the Game 4 win over Brooklyn but enters this matchup with a probable tag.
Bojan Bogdanovic (UTA)
Bogdanovic remains out due to a wrist injury.
Will Barton (DEN)
Barton is out for the rest of the season with a knee issue.
Gary Harris (DEN)
Harris is questionable for this matchup with a hip injury. Even if he's ready to return, he'll likely to be limited having not played since the bubble began.
Patrick Beverley (LAC)
Beverley has been dealing with a calf issue and enters this matchup questionable. If he returns, look for Landry Shamet to return to the bench.
Kristaps Porzingis (DAL)
Porzingis is out for the rest of the series after tearing his meniscus. Look for Maxi Kleber to continue to start while Luka Doncic and Trey Burke pick up the usage.
Luka Doncic/Dorian Finney-Smith/Trey Burke/Tim Hardaway Jr (DAL)
Rick Carlisle might be trolling here, but all these guys are on the injury report with minor ailments. Look for all of them to suit up.
Elite Players
The studs on this slate are going to determine everything. How can we possibly fade Doncic and Leonard? These two are combining for nearly 120 FanDuel points per game in this series and they could be even better in an elimination game. We're not forgetting about Jokic either, who could play 40-plus minutes in a must-win matchup. Jamal Murray and Donovan Mitchell have also been going nuts in that series and it'll be critical to find the right combination of star players.
Expected Chalk
Luka Doncic, DAL ($11,400)
It's going to be tough leaving Doncic out and it's likely going to put him in almost everybody's lineup. It's easy to see why when looking at his numbers though, averaging 30.7 points, 9.6 rebounds and 9.1 assists over his last 15 games. Those are ridiculous numbers from a 21-year-old and it's scary to think what he'll do facing an elimination game and without KP in the lineup.
Nikola Jokic, DEN ($9,300)
This price really surprised me. I figured Jokic would be north of five-figures facing elimination, simply because he should play monster minutes. Not only has he seen 39 minutes in back-to-back games, Jokic also averaged 39.6 in last year's playoffs. This has 45 minutes written all over it here and that would equate to over 50 fantasy points when looking at Jokic's usual production. All of that is going to force him into a ton of lineups and we haven't even discussed how the center position is the weakest area on this slate.
Key Values
Maxi Kleber, DAL ($5,400)
With Porzingis missing, we love Kleber. Not only has Maxi already been playing 33.4 minutes a game in this series, he's also been asked to cover Kawhi Leonard. That's going to keep him in this game for 40 minutes in a must-win circumstance and that's big news for a guy who's produced at least 24 FD points in three of his last four games. Kleber's been doing that with limited shot attempts and a low percentage, so he could be an absolute monster if he gets hot.
Marcus Smart, BOS ($5,300)
With Hayward gone for now, it's strange Smart's price didn't rise closer to $6,000. If you look at Smart's 43 starts this season, he's averaging 31.4 FanDuel points per game across 35 minutes of action. That's the production you'd see from a $6,500 player, making Smart look like a major discount. That doesn't even take into consideration they're facing a Toronto team with two elite guards, likely forcing Smart into even more minutes and more hustle statistics.
