This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
It's a bit strange to see the same teams play every other day and examine these slates, but it does add an interesting dynamic. This is all about adjustments and it's fascinating to watch these rotations develop along with the series. There's also the big elephant in the room - and that's Luka Doncic's ankle. His status is going to determine how this slate is played and we'll go over that more.
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel
Slate Overview
TOR-BKN: Toronto enters this game as a 12.5-point favorite and we have a total of 216.
DEN-UTA: Utah is a 2.5-point favorite, with a total sitting at 218.
BOS-PHI: Boston comes in as a 7.5-point favorite, with a total of 213.
LAC-DAL: Los Angeles is an 8.5-point favorite and we have a total of 231.
Positional Breakdown
PG: Kyle Lowry is up top at $8,200. Jamal Murray and Kemba Walker follow in the low-$7,000s, while Mike Conley is at $6,200 after a gem in Game 3. No one else is above $5K. Seth Curry and Trey Burke would be brilliant plays if Doncic is out and Shake Milton remains a decent value at $4,500.
SG: Luka Doncic represents the highest player on the slate at $10,500 yet again. Caris LeVert, Donovan Mitchell, Fred VanVleet and Paul George are all very close to $8,000. Lou Williams, Marcus Smart, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Jordan Clarkson and Norman Powell hover around $5K. If you're looking to punt at this position, Delon Wright, Alec Burks and Torrey Craig could be decent options.
SF: Kawhi Leonard is the elite here, sitting at $10,000. Pascal Siakam is barely below $8K, while Jaylen Brown and Tobias Harris sit around $7,000. Joe Ingles and Tim Hardaway Jr are in play just north of $5,000 and the options are very thin after those two. If Doncic is out, THJ is one of the best options out there. Don't forget about Dorian Finney-Smith and OG Anunoby south of $5K either.
PF: Kristaps Porzingis enters tops at $9,000, with Jayson Tatum just $200 behind. Michael Porter is sitting at $6,500, while Serge Ibaka, Al Horford, Marcus Morris, Jerami Grant, Royce O'Neale and Daniel Theis range between $4,500 and $6,200. Maxi Kleber is playing 33 minutes a game and makes a solid value at $4K.
C: Joel Embiid is the highest at $10,000. Nikola Jokic has seen a small salary drop to $9,200. Rudy Gobert and Jarrett Allen hover in the $7K-range. If you want to punt here - which I wouldn't do - go with Montrezl Harrell, Boban Marjanovic or Marc Gasol.
Injuries to Monitor
Gordon Hayward (BOS)
Hayward will miss Game 4 because of an ankle issue. Marcus Smart will start in his absence while Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown will carry the offensive load.
Luka Doncic (DAL)
Doncic suffered a nasty ankle sprain in Game 3 and his status is going to be critical on this slate. He's currently questionable and marked as a dreaded game-time decision. If he's out, look for Seth Curry and Trey Burke to pick up plenty of value while Porzingis would represnet one of the best plays on the slate.
Kristaps Porzingis (DAL)
Porzingis is probable yet again with that heel issue, but he'll play.
Gary Harris/Will Barton (DEN)
Barton remains out with a knee issue, but Harris has been upgraded to doubtful. Don't expect either to suit up.
Patrick Beverley (LAC)
Beverley is doubtful again here with a calf injury. Reggie Jackson started in Game 2 while Landry Shamet started in Game 3, although we anticipate Shamet getting the start again.
Ben Simmons (PHI) and Bojan Bogdanovic (UTA) both remain out with long-term injuries.
Elite Players
Luka Doncic is the top option on the slate at $10,500, but his status literally changes everything. Joel Embiid and Kawhi Leonard follow up at $10,000 and both are great options the way they're playing. I'd try to squeeze at least two of these guys into your lineup if possible. Nikola Jokic looks like a decent value at $9,200, with Denver playing a critical Game 4 down 2-1.
Expected Chalk
This is yet another section that's dependent on Doncic. If he's out, look for Porzingis to be used in almost every single lineup. The same goes for Curry, Hardaway and Burke, with all three guys picking up a ton of usage in his absence. In terms of other teams, Joel Embiid is likely to be used a lot. He's averaging 30 points and 13 rebounds per game in this series and should be leaned on even more with Philly playing an elimination game. In addition, Kyle Lowry will probably be significantly used at a weak PG position. There aren't many reliable options there and it's going to force a lot of people to click that green mark next to Lowry's name based on his consistency.
Key Values
Seth Curry/Trey Burke/Tim Hardaway Jr (DAL)
This is cheating, but all three would be locks if Doncic is out. The simple fact is he swallows up a ton of minutes and usage, opening the door for these guys to succeed. We're talking about someone who has a 37 percent usage rate in these playoffs while providing about 30 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists a game. That's a lot of statistics to make up and these three are surely going to be the ones to take it. Don't forget about Porzingis, who averaged about 50 fantasy points per game in games that Doncic missed earlier on this season.
Shake Milton, PHI ($4,500)
Milton found his way into my article on Friday and we're going right back to the well. He's done nothing but produce since being inserted into the starting lineup, averaging 24 FD points per game over 27 total starts. Milton enjoyed one of his best outings in Game 3 by collecting 30 fantasy points across 37 minutes of action. If he plays 35 minutes again here, he's pretty much guaranteed to provide 5x value or higher.
