This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We have a compact two-game slate on tap Monday, as the Heat and Bucks kick off their semifinal-round battle and the Rockets and Thunder face off in a pivotal Game 6. Both games carry plenty of intrigue, as Miami actually has performed well against the Bucks this season, taking two of three meetings, while OKC will be looking to bounce back from one of the more forgettable offensive halves one will see in a postseason game in Game 5 on Saturday.
Before delving into the slate, a reminder that FanDuel has reverted to its previous format of NOT dropping the lowest scoring in lineups after a one-year experiment with that feature. Therefore, it will be important to be prudent with each selection, as each player's total will count toward your final score.
Slate Overview
Here's a further look at the two games on Monday's slate:
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks (Projected total: 223.0 points)
Despite the solid defensive reputations of both squads, two of the three regular-season meetings between them contained plenty of offensive fireworks. The two combined for 257 points in an overtime victory by the Heat back on Oct. 26, and they then tallied 246 points in a seeding game Aug. 6. Milwaukee could be without Eric Bledsoe (hamstring) on Monday, however, which could certainly affect their scoring ceiling. Nevertheless, the projected total here is more than reasonable when considering Milwaukee scored at least 118 points in three of its last four contests against Orlando in the first round, and the Heat is averaging 112.0 points per contest overall since the start of the regular season.
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (Projected total: 226.5 points)
This series has been a bit difficult to figure out, as we've had some robust totals and a pair of sub-100-point performance by the Thunder. The clubs put up 231, 226 and 231 points in Games 1, 3 and 4, respectively, but Houston's two double-digit victories have finished with totals of 209 and 194 points. Each squad will be at full health for this critical contest, and both Russell Westbrook (seven points on 3-for-13 shooting) and OKC (31.5 percent shooting, including 15.2 percent from three-point range) are capable of much better than their abysmal Game 5 offensive efforts.
Positional Breakdown
PG: A potential absence on the part of Eric Bledsoe (hamstring) puts the availability of a key mid-priced option in doubt, but the position still features Russell Westbrook up top and both Chris Paul and Goran Dragic as strong alternatives if you're looking to save some cash. George Hill could also become a very popular value play if Bledsoe sits out, but the rest of the pool is pretty much barren.
SG: There's much better depth at SG, beginning with James Harden and the impressive trio of Jimmy Butler, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Khris Middleton below him as less expensive options. Then, Dennis Schroder, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson form a third tier of viable plays.
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo is the unquestioned top option at the position, and then there's a significant dropoff to the likes of Eric Gordon and Danilo Gallinari as arguably the next two highest-upside pieces. However, Danuel House, Jae Crowder and Darius Bazley are all under consideration as value plays.
PF: You won't have to break the bank here, as Bam Adebayo is at the top of the pool and is followed by Robert Covington and Jeff Green. However, the bad news is that's about the extent of anything resembling what could be termed as a relatively "safe" choice. Nerlens Noel and Marvin Williams may be the other options that have a chance of offering a decent return.
C: Brook Lopez, Steven Adams and P.J. Tucker are your three options at this spot that have what can be described as secure roles. All have certainly had their moments this postseason, but Lopez could ultimately be the best play of the bunch if Bledsoe does indeed sit out, as he's averaged 1.0 FD point per minute with his teammate off the floor this season.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
Eric Bledsoe, MIL (hamstring)
Bledsoe is questionable with the hamstring injury he picked up in the Game 5 win over the Magic on Saturday. If he's unable to suit up, George Hill could be the direct beneficiary in terms of a spot start, while the usage rates of the remaining members of the starting five would increase to varying degrees.
Other injuries to monitor:
Luc Mbah a Moute, HOU (knee)- QUESTIONABLE
Deonte Burton, OKC (illness)- QUESTIONABLE
Gabe Vincent, MIA (shoulder)- QUESTIONABLE
Chris Silva, MIA (pelvis)- OUT
Elite Players
We have two players sporting five-figure salaries Monday, with Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11.5K) and James Harden ($11.2K) unsurprisingly carrying that designation. Each should be in for their typically robust workload, and Antetokounmpo heads into the semifinal-round series against the Heat having averaged 25.0 points, 14.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.3 blocks and 1.3 steals across 32.3 minutes in three prior games.
Below that top duo, Russell Westbrook ($9.4K), Jimmy Butler ($8.5K) and Chris Paul ($8.2K) may be the likeliest candidates for elite-level production. Westbrook should improve on his very poor Game 5 return showing Saturday, while Paul should be playing with utmost urgency given that the Thunder face elimination.
Expected Chalk
All of the players just listed in the prior section are going to be on plenty of rosters, along with many talented mid-priced players with secure roles such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Khris Middleton, Goran Dragic and Dennis Schroder. With Bledsoe as the only potential absence of note, there won't be any injury-influenced chalk with the possible exception of George Hill if he's announced as the starter in Bledsoe's place.
Key Values
Jae Crowder, MIA vs. MIL ($4,700)
Crowder may be somewhat popular given the dearth of choices on a two-game slate, but he's still likely to be rostered at a lesser clip than several of his teammates and other value plays. The veteran wing was solid over the last three games versus the Pacers, scoring 22 to 28.1 FD points in those contests. He also compiled 22.3 FD points over 25 minutes against the Bucks in a seeding game Aug. 6, and he scored more than 25 FD points in three seeding contests overall. Finally, it's worth noting Crowder also scored 38.2 and 27.8 FD points in two other regular-season contests against Milwaukee, highlighting his ability to deliver a very strong return on his current salary.
Darius Bazley, OKC vs. HOU ($3,600)
Bazley exploded for 27.9 FD points on the strength of a 10-point, 12-rebound double-double in Game 5, representing one of the few bright spots for the Thunder. There's no question there's risk attached to rostering him, as he'd played under 20 minutes in each of the other four games of the series and topped out at 19.3 FD points in that sample. Nevertheless, his Game 5 effort isn't a total outlier – Bazley has scored over 20 FD points in 17 games overall this season and postseason, and only five of those have been starts. He has a pair of 19-plus FD-point tallies against the Rockets in addition to Saturday's breakout, and Houston ranked in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency rating (26.5) and three-point shooting percentage (36.4) allowed to power forwards.
Other under-the-radar value plays to consider: Nerlens Noel, OKC vs. HOU ($3,900); Marvin Williams, MIL vs. MIA ($3,800)
Popular value plays to consider: Brook Lopez, MIL ($5,700); Robert Covington, HOU ($5,600); Steven Adams, OKC ($5,500); Danilo Gallinari, OKC ($5,500); Tyler Herro, MIA ($5,200); Jeff Green, HOU ($5,100); Danuel House, HOU ($5,000); Duncan Robinson, MIA ($4,700); George Hill, MIL ($4,400), P.J. Tucker, HOU ($4,200); Kelly Olynyk, MIA ($4,000)
