This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We're finally into the Conference Semis after a long opening round and we have two series going in opposite directions. The Eastern Conference showdown between the Bucks and Heat has been one-sided in favor of Miami. The Western Conference series on this slate is actually the opener between the Lakers and Rockets. That makes both of these games critical in different ways and I look forward to breaking it down for you guys!
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel
Slate Overview
MIL-MIA: With Miami up 2-0 in this series, Milwaukee enters this matchup as a 5.5-point favorite in a must-win game. The total is currently sitting at 223.5
HOU-LAL: In Game 1 of this series, Los Angeles comes in as a 6.5-point favorite with a 226 total.
Positional Breakdown
PG: Russell Westbrook looks too low at $8,500. Goran Dragic is balling out, sitting at $7,200. Eric Bledsoe is a solid play at $5,600 while George Hill, Alex Caruso and Kendrick Nunn are in consideration below $4,500.
SG: James Harden is the cream of the crop at $11,000. Jimmy Butler is posting an $8,700 salary while Khris Middleton is sitting at $7,500. Tyler Herro looks interesting at $5,400, while volatile sharpshooters like Danny Green and Duncan Robinson sit in the mid-$4,000s. Andre Iguodala, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Wesley Matthews are viable punt plays.
SF: LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo sit $200 apart, just below $11K. Eric Gordon is coming off a big game at $5,600. Jae Crowder represents one of the best values at $5,000 while Danuel House is at $4,600. The cheaper guys are not viable at this position.
PF: Anthony Davis is the highest-priced player on the slate at $11,200. Bam Adebayo has been a monster and follows him up at $8,000. Robert Covington also looks like a great pick at $6,800. You could also go with Kyle Kuzma or Jeff Green below $5K as value plays.
C: Wow, this position is a nightmare. We have Brook Lopez up top at $5,700, with P.J. Tucker following up at $5,100. If you're feeling crazy, you can use JaVale McGee, Dwight Howard or Kelly Olynyk as punt plays. Just use Lopez or Tucker.
Injury Situations to Monitor
It looks like we'll have all of the key pieces in play here, but here are a few injuries to monitor:
LeBron James/Anthony Davis (LAL)
These two come into this matchup with probable tags, but both are fully expected to suit up.
Eric Bledsoe (MIL)
Bledsoe made his return from injury in Game 2 and should be ready for 30 minutes here.
Kelly Olynyk (MIA)
Olynyk is questionable with a knee issue. If he's out, look for the minutes to be divided by Duncan Robinson and Derrick Jones Jr.
Andre Iguodala (MIA)
Iguodala suffered an ankle sprain in Game 2 and is questionable here. If he's out, look for Tyler Herro and Derrick Jones Jr to pick up more minutes.
Elite Players
Honestly, these slates are going to be very annoying to figure out. It's usually easy to pick a stud in a two-game slate but we have to choose from Anthony Davis, James Harden, LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo. It's going to be imperative to get at least two of those guys into your lineup because using three leaves you very thin in terms of salary. They're actually priced in the order I just listed, which is somewhat surprising when you consider Giannis is typically tops. That makes him my favorite play of the bunch, particularly with his team back against the wall down 0-2.
Expected Chalk
Anthony Davis, LAL ($11,200)
I'm just guessing, but I think Davis will be the most used player among the big four on this slate. The reason is because of the Houston narrative. Everyone knows the Rockets play small-ball and that's going to make a lot of people think that AD will destroy them. It's a very possible assumption, but you're certainly paying the price at $11,200. The regular season really doesn't help us either, with AD scoring 32 FD points in one of those meetings and 70 in the other. Nevertheless, look for Davis to be in nearly half of the lineups.
Brook Lopez, MIL ($5,700)
The center position is an absolute disaster on this slate, with Lopez leading at just $5,700. The only other viable option is P.J. Tucker and that's going to force almost everyone into using Lopez. He's been solid too by scoring at least 28 FD points one eight straight games, which ironically matches his season average. Many will be taking Lopez and you may have to do the same.
Key Values
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($10,600)
Giannis as a value? I know that sounds strange, but look at this price tag. Antetokounmpo has been flirting with $12,000 all season long and he's at $10,600 in the season's biggest game. His team is down 0-2 in the second round and it's going to make him hungrier than ever. That motivation pairs beautifully with the fact Giannis is likely looking at 40 minutes of action which is rare for a guy who played just 32 minutes a game during the regular season. What's funny is that we think he's struggling right now, scoring at least 44 FD points in all seven playoff games this season while averaging 54 FanDuel points per game.
Jae Crowder, MIA ($5,000)
If Iguodala and Olynyk are out, this is probably the best value play of the day. Even if they do suit up, Crowder is still way too undervalued. If you take out the regular-season finale where Crowder played just eight minutes, he's averaging 25 FanDuel points per game across 28.5 minutes per game over his last nine outings. That role has further increased during this series, as he's playing at least 35 minutes in both fixtures. If we get Crowder seeing 35 minutes at $5,000, we simply can't fade him.
