This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We're switching off the same series every other day and these four are ones I've become very accustomed to because of these articles. We're also getting a good grasp on how these rotations will look and I'm excited to get into it!
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel
Slate Overview
TOR-BKN: Toronto enters this game as a 10.5-point favorite and we have a total of 220.5
DEN-UTA: Denver is a 1.5-point favorite in this game, with a total sitting at 218.5
BOS-PHI: Boston enters this matchup as a 5.5-point favorite, with a total of 216.
LAC-DAL: Los Angeles is a 4.5-point favorite and we have a total of 232.
Positional Breakdown
PG: This represents the worst position of the day, with Kyle Lowry up top just north of $8K. Jamal Murray and Kemba Walker follow him up in the low-$7,000s while Mike Conley is at $5,800. No one else is above $4,600. Seth Curry, Reggie Jackson and Shake Milton make for great value plays below that.
SG: Luka Doncic is the highest player on the slate at $10,500. Caris LeVert, Donovan Mitchell, Fred VanVleet and Paul George are all within $300 of $8,000. Lou Williams, Marcus Smart, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Jordan Clarkson and Norman Powell are all around $5K. Torrey Craig could be a nice punt play at a minimum salary.
SF: Kawhi Leonard is in front here, just shy of $10,000. Jaylen Brown, Tobias Harris and Pascal Siakam are all in the $7,000s. Joe Ingles and Tim Hardaway are in play just north of $5,000 and there's really no one else worth considering.
PF: Jayson Tatum is tops at $9,000, with Kristaps Porzingis $500 behind. Michael Porter is sitting at $6,800 while Serge Ibaka, Al Horford, Marcus Morris, Jerami Grant, Royce O'Neale and Daniel Theis sit between $4,500 and $6,000. Maxi Kleber is playing 33 minutes a game and is a solid value at $4K.
C: Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic are the two best options here around $10,000. Rudy Gobert and Jarrett Allen hover in the $7K-range. If you want to punt here - which I wouldn't do - go with Montrezl Harrell, Boban Marjanovic or Marc Gasol.
Injuries to Monitor
Gordon Hayward (BOS)
Hayward will miss Game 3 because of an ankle issue. Look for Marcus Smart to start in his absence.
Mike Conley (UTA)
Conley is expected to make his return here after missing the first two games of this series for the birth of his child. That should take some of the usage away from Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles.
Kristaps Porzingis (DAL)
Porzingis has a heel issue, but his probable tag means he's unlikely to sit out this critical Game 3.
Gary Harris/Will Barton (DEN)
Harris remains out because of a hip issue and Barton is out due to a knee problem.
Patrick Beverley (LAC)
Beverley is doubtful here with a calf injury. Look for Reggie Jackson to start in his absence.
Don't forget about Ben Simmons (PHI) and Bojan Bogdanovic (UTA). Both remain out with long-term injuries.
Elite Players
We have five players at least $9,000, with Luka Doncic sitting up top at $10,500. He's hard to fade the way he's playing right now, averaging over 30 points per game and nearly a triple-double since entering the bubble. Joel Embiid is next at $10,100 and has rolled over the Celtics all season long. Jayson Tatum, Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Jokic are all in the $9,000s and all are great plays based on great performances. You have to get two of these guys into your lineup, and maybe three if you can afford it. If I had to choose three, I'd go Doncic, Jokic and Leonard. That would still leave you with over $5,000 per player for your remaining roster spots and that's not hard to do with so many quality value plays.
Expected Chalk
Donovan Mitchell, UTA ($8,200)
People know how well DM has been playing in this series, as he's averaged 60 FanDuel points per contest. That has raised his value to this big number but it's still not high enough for people to completely fade him. I am going to be one of those that does though, because I don't like that Mike Conley is returning. That takes the ball out of Mitchell's hands more and it also reduces shot attempts. If you fade him and he scores below 40 FD points, you've made a profitable decision.
Kyle Lowry, TOR ($8,200)
This is all about the point guard position, which is the weakest on this slate and it's going to force a lot of people into paying up for Lowry. There are only four players above $5,000 and the other three are iffy (Kemba Walker, Jamal Murray and Mike Conley). That's going push people into using Lowry and it wouldn't be surprising to see him in nearly half of the lineups.
Key Values
Dorian Finney-Smith, DAL ($4,400)
This dude is super underrated. Not only does DFS play monster minutes as their defensive stopper, he is also producing like a $6,000 player. If you take out the final game of the regular season bubble where he was rested and a game where he got injured in the first quarter, Finney-Smith has scored at least 19 FD points in 10 of his last 11 games. He happens to be averaging 27.3 fantasy points per game over those 11 outings in 34 minutes a game, which is tremendous from a player at $4,400.
Shake Milton, PHI ($4,000)
With Ben Simmons out, Milton should continue to start as the Sixers' point guard. If you look at the 26 games Milton has started this season, he's averaging 23 FD points per game across 27 minutes of action. That may not sound special, but it equates to 6x value at this small salary. This is a team with its back against the wall and we should see Milton fighting hard with the rest of the Sixers.
Some value guys worth considering below $5,000 include: Reggie Jackson, Maxi Kleber, Royce O'Neale, Torrey Craig, Daniel Theis, Montrezl Harrell and Seth Curry.
