This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We return from the All-Star break with a healthy 13 games over the next two days. Perhaps unfortunately for bettors, 11 of those take place Thursday. However, of the four teams tipping off Wednesday, three have a defensive deficiency at one position or another that we can target.
Props to Target
Rarely in this column do we target large point totals if only because so many things could go wrong that would jeopardize a line that is generally priced to the gills from an odds perspective. That being said, I think Wednesday's slate might provide a couple of relatively safe options. It's a bit of a surprise considering San Antonio's decade-long defensive dominance, but this latest iteration of the franchise is dreadful at stopping opposing point guards, allowing the second-most points-per-game to the position (27.2) in the league. Considering Luka Doncic (back) was able to play in the All-Star contest and registered 36 points the last time these two teams battled in this Texas rivalry, I'll gladly take the over when it comes to 28.5 points (-122).
The only team worse at defending opposing point guards is the Wizards, who happen to be playing a suddenly dangerous Ja Morant and the Grizzlies. Many were expecting a bigger leap by the No. 2 overall pick entering his second season, and while it's taken halfway through the season, the 21-year-old's back-to-back 35-point outings might be signaling the aforementioned arrival. In both of those games, Morant found his way to the charity stripe at least 10 times; a major milestone considering he was averaging just under five attempts from the free-throw line in the month of February. It's hard to predict free-throw attempts, but if Morant is deploying a suddenly more aggressive attitude, it should work against a Wizards unit that allows the most free throws to opposing PGs in the league (5.5). As a result, over 23.5 points (-121) should be in play.
It wouldn't be a DraftKings Sportsbook breakdown without targeting at least one overly aggressive figure. Other than Bradley Beal doing Bradley Beal things, there shouldn't be a reason the o/u sits at 32.5 points (under -106). We just saw the Griz/Wizards square off eight days ago and Memphis managed to limit Beal to his lowest point total (23) since February 5. A dreadful 8-of-18 from the floor certainly helped matters, but for this context it's important he drew just six free-throw attempts, about 2.5 less than his season average to date. The dynamic All-Star has gone over 32.5 points in six of the last eight games so this is by no means a lock, but I'm willing to bet Memphis can replicate its defensive strategy well enough to contain the 27-year-old.
Here's my perhaps favorite bet since starting this series. We all know DraftKings doesn't allow you to do same-game parlays for "reasons", but I do think there's major value in a specific parlay Wednesday.
By taking Jonas Valanciunas to hit a double-double (-335) and combining it with either Dejounte Murray under 7.5 rebounds (-143) or Murray over 4.5 assists (-152), you're looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of +114 odds, which is a tremendous value for two things that seem all but assured.
No team allows more rebounds to opposing centers than the Wizards and Valanciunas has scored at least double-digit points in all but one game since the start of February. On the other hand, Murray has recorded at least five assists in each of the last seven games and is slowly starting to see play more playing time, averaging 34 minutes in that stretch. I'd personally lean the assists direction, but you can also target the aforementioned rebound figure since the Mavericks are generally good at locking down opposing PGs on the glass (allow sixth-fewest rebounds to opposing PGs).
Best Bets
- Luka Doncic over 28.5 points (-122)
- Jonas Valanciunas double-double + Dejounte Murray over 4.5 assists (+114)
