This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
While an injury to Tobias Harris ruined an otherwise pretty good Thursday breakdown, I've officially learned my lesson regarding betting massive points+rebounds+assists (PRA) totals. It's going to be hard passing up the opportunity to make Godfather references for future articles, but it's for the greater good. Friday presents a nine-game slate, although Bam Adebayo's knee injury essentially removes one team from the equation while the mess of a game that will be the Kings/Pistons evidently presented too many variables for DraftKings to offer any sort of props.
Points Props
Truthfully, I don't understand how DraftKings came to this conclusion which always makes me nervous, but at the moment you have to take the under when it comes to Theo Maledon's 10.5-point figure (-110). Sure Trae Young has turned into a human turnstile again after showing flashes of competence defensively last season, but if there's a guard that should take advantage of mismatches in the Atlanta backcourt I have to imagine it would be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, not Maledon. The 19-year-old guard is averaging just 8.5 points despite playing close to 33 minutes a night across the last six games and has scored over 10 points just twice in that stretch, so there's really nothing in the box score that would indicate this sudden of a jump, either.
Sticking in the same game, I'm also taking under 18.5 points (-110) when it comes to John Collins. The Thunder allow the most boards and steals to opposing power forwards in the entire league, but they are actually one of the better teams when it comes to limiting scoring from PFs. Much of that has to do with closing out on 3-point attempts (PFs shoot a league-low 29.9 percent from deep against the Thunder), so while I could easily see both Collins and center Clint Capela having monster total PRAs, I think the former will come up short from a scoring perspective.
Not that I'm trying to create a Hawks/Thunder theme, but when you have a point guard who has played for both it's the only natural transition. I mentioned this as well on the Handicapping the NBA: Friday Picks edition so I won't go into too much detail, but I think you have to take the over when it comes to Dennis Schroder scoring (16.5, -118). The Lakers are desperate for some offense and with fresh legs, I think the 27-year-old is going to have to be a catalyst to buck the team's recent slide.
Finally, there's no better team when it comes to defending point guards than the Heat, so while we might not have many prop bets on Miami's side, we can take advantage of their defense. Mike Conley is only averaging 15.3 points in the month of February as is, so taking his 15.5-point under (-110) makes a lot of sense.
Rebounds/Assists Props
I've been doing this long enough to know that when odds take a dramatic spike in one direction or another, it's generally a cause for concern. That being said, it's just hard to rationalize a way in which Coby White goes over 4.5 assists (under 4.5, -152) Friday. The Suns are one of the best teams when it comes to limiting assists from opposing point guards (tied with the Rockets for best in the league at 6.9 per game), but the Bulls also tend to let White and Zach LaVine oscillate between the main facilitator on any given night. Maybe DraftKings knows something we don't -- earlier Friday morning these odds were closer to -110 -- but just from a statistical standpoint, this is a bet to monitor.
Long-time readers know I love targeting forwards with lower PRAs so I'm happy we can finally go back to the well when it comes to Jae'Sean Tate's 19.5 PRA over (-110). Prior to Wednesday, Tate had gone over this PRA in five of the last six games, and to make matters even better, the Raptors quietly allow top-10 production to opposing power forwards in every major counting category save for steals.
Consider this bet a placeholder. I'm assuming as we get closer to tip-off more sportsbooks will be a bit more fluid with player prop bets, but for the moment you should at least bookmark the over when it comes Kyle Kuzma's 7.5 rebounds (-110). It's no secret Enes Kanter has been a defensive liability ever since he was forced into the starting lineup, but with Marc Gasol only averaging 20.3 minutes per game this season, there's really no way the grizzled veteran will be able to see enough time on the court to take advantage. I'd really love to bet any sort of line when it comes to Montrezl Harrell, but so long as sportsbooks continue to use this archaic system that features starting players only, you might as well defer to Kuzma, who I think has the minutes-floor necessary to take advantage of Kanter's porous low-post presence.
There are few locks in Friday's slate so instead of pressing the issue, I figured I'd at least point out one bet that I like from an odds perspective. The Warriors finally have a healthy frontcourt after lengthy absences from James Wiseman and Kevon Looney, but I do think Draymond Green is in a position to see plenty of minutes at center, where the Hornets struggle to clean up the glass (16.6 rebounds to opposing center per game, tied for second-worst in NBA). Taking Green's 7.5 rebound over (+110) gives you plus odds and he's hit that mark in each of the last two games.
Best Bets
- Dennis Schroder over 16.5 points (-118)
- Jae'Sean Tate over 19.5 points/rebounds/assists (-110)
