This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We've got a large 11-game NBA slate to run through for Wednesday, so let's get right to it!
SLATE OVERVIEW
PHI (-12) vs. NY, O/U: 213
SA (-2.5) @ WAS, O/U: 237.5
MIL (-11) @ ATL, O/U: 232.5
TOR (-3) vs. ORL, O/U: 208
BKN (-3.5) vs. CHA, O/U: 219
MIA (-10) vs. CLE, O/U: 212.5
DAL (-14) vs. GS, O/U: 218
CHI (-1) vs. DET, O/U: 220
UTA (-3.5) @ MIN, O/U:219
DEN (-1) vs. HOU, O/U: 222.5
At first glance, it looks like the SA/WAS game has all the markers of a game to target, as it checks the boxes with a narrow point spread and the highest O/U of the slate. The pace differential is only 2.82 so we shouldn't expect much deviation from either team in that regard.
Your marquee guys here are Bradley Beal ($9,500) and DeMar DeRozan ($8,100), but I favor Beal due to his higher floor. It's not a great price tag for the standout off-guard, but he's on an insane three-game run where he's hit highs of 68 DKFP and lows of 56 DKFP. Not bad. There's value here as well, as I continue to like Isaiah Thomas' value at $5,500. He's now reaching 30 minutes of court time regularly. Rui Hachimura ($4,800) is also a decent GPP candidate, as he's shown the ability to pop up into the 30 DKFP range in the right game script.
My game to fade has to be the CLE/MIA game. Not a lot to like here. You've got shooting guard elite here in Jimmy Butler, and you are going to find a little bit of value when we touch on players for both teams in the injury section. As a result, this game will be for value dives only.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Kawhi Leonard (knee) QUESTIONABLE
Bottom line here? We just don't know. I certainly don't blame Doc Rivers for holding him out. They've got such a talented roster, they can shoulder the load without him. It's a wait-and-see situation here, but I can probably just reasonably fade the spot on such a large slate, though you can slot him in late in GPPs if he suits up.
Kyrie Irving (shoulder) OUT
Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,200) has been on fire in Irving's absence. One look at his recent stat lines will illustrate why he's highly, highly recommended.
Andrew Wiggins (illness) QUESTIONABLE
I have a feeling we'll see Wiggins back on the court on Wednesday. If he doesn't go, I can't really endorse a pivot because no single player has stepped up enough to warrant a mention in this situation.
Justise Winslow (concussion) OUT
I'm confident with Kendrick Nunn ($6,100) as a suitable pivot in this situation
Tristan Thompson (rest) OUT
Larry Nance will start in Thompson's absence
With the aforementioned endorsements (in bold) in mind, let's move on with the rest of our selections.
ELITE PLAYERS
For starters, James Harden ($11,600) and Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200) are always reasonable, but both players face tough teams on Wednesday, I would have to favor Giannis a bit more than Harden against the Bucks if I choose to go this high. To be honest, I'm probably going to do my best to stay off them in most of my lineups.
Luka Doncic, DAL ($10,400) vs. GS
Doncic finds himself in by far the best situation for an elite on Wednesday. The Warriors are woefully understaffed in the backcourt, and I think Luka will have free rein to make shots on his home court. The Warriors are also on a back-to-back that started with a hard-fought win against Memphis. Doncic had an insane 78 DKFP against San Antonio two days ago, and I expect him to keep rolling.
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN ($9,600) Vs. UTA
Towns is rounding into form as expected, and although you can't count out a guy like Rudy Gobert, Towns' Utah history isn't bad at all. Over the past two years, he's only dipped below 50 KFP twice over five games.
Trae Young, ATL ($9,400) vs. MIL
Maybe Giannis should move up and guard Young? Trae is poised to feast on the Bucks' weak backcourt defense as he continues his legendary march through a sophomore season that's littered with superlative stat lines. He's an almost nightly add if you can afford him.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Paul George, LAC ($7,800) vs. BOS
I like George on his own merit, but I love him if Kawhi is still absent. While I'm as excited about the eventual debut of this duo as anyone, George will crush value at this price on his own, which won't stay this low for long. Luckily for us, it's only gone up $200 since his debut. Some might shy away from him due to an un-George-like stat line against the Thunder, but that's an aberration I'm not overly concerned about.
Blake Griffin, DET ($7,100) @ CHI
Now that Griffin's back, his salary will begin to rise, but he's simply too tantalizing at this low price. As his price balloons, his usage should expand right along with it. We already saw a six-minute bump between his first and second game back, and with multiple days of rest, we are almost guaranteed to see him return. While you have to temper your expectations with Griffin, the ability to pop off a huge line is always possible, and worth the risk.
Lou Williams, LAC ($6,500) vs. BOS
I like Williams if Leonard sits, but I really don't think I mind him either way. Williams has enjoyed playing the Celtics in the past, with steady numbers in the mid-30 DKFP range over the past two years. I'd expect a significant uptick with Leonard out.
Tobias Harris, PHI ($6,200) vs. NY
While there's no denying the plum spot Joel Embiid ($10,000) is in against the Knicks, I like Harris as a candidate to come close to Embiid's value at a much cheaper price. Marcus Morris and Julius Randle can play defense, but Taj Gibson is going to need help with Embiid. If Philly's big man gets double-teamed under the basket, who's open? Harris.
VALUE PLAYS
Coby White, CHI ($5,300) vs. DET
His price is almost getting too high, but I like White enough to keep firing him up. The Pistons defense is pretty soft across the board currently, but they're especially weak in the backcourt, and currently rank 28th against defending the three. White's long-range shot is starting to warm up, and he went 3-for-6 from beyond the arc against the Bucks two days ago.
P.J. Washington, CHA ($4,700) @ BKN
I think you can ignore the blowout versus the Raptors and focus on the fact that Washington has been the best frontcourt option for Charlotte, and I've always enjoyed playing whoever Jarrett Allen has to defend. If you eliminate the unfortunate Toronto game, he's averaging a respectable 13.1 points and 5.8 rebounds per game.
Patty Mills, SA ($4,000) @ WAS
Although Dejounte Murray will get some extended time with Derrick White (foot) out, Mills should fare equally well at a much more favorable price. I'd ignore the numbers and focus on opportunity in this spot because his recent stats won't do much to bolster your confidence.
Cam Reddish, ATL ($4,000) vs. MIL
You've got to like the guy's...enthusiasm? After getting ejected last week for two flagrant fouls, he charged right back and put up two decent stat lines, both of which can easily meet value at this bargain price. With an average of around 30 minutes of court time over the past two games and a three-point shot that's waiting to warm up, I like Reddish's potential to meet and possibly exceed his recent production against the Bucks.
SUMMARY
Variance is always a killer on large slates like this, but it's also a great time to load GPPs, especially single-entry contests, where the field will be weaker and more variant in ownership. It's also a good time to try experimenting with multiple lineups while working with a budget you can afford. There's no shame in loading 20 lineups into a $0.25 GPP. While your potential prize might be smaller, you're spending only five bucks and can enjoy tracking lots of different lineups, while also padding your loss with a 50/50, head-to-head or double up. For Kawhi info and other late-breaking information, be sure to check back in at RotoWire before tip-off.
