This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We've got a massive nine-game slate on Wednesday, so let's dive right in!
SLATE OVERVIEW
First, we'll take a look at how the bookmakers view Wednesday's slate.
IND (-5.5) vs. WAS O/U: 220.5
DET (-2.5) vs. NY O/U: 211
TOR (-8) vs. SAC O/U: 219
HOU (-16.5) vs. GS O/U: 233
ATL (-2.5) vs. CHI O/U: 218
MIN (-5) @ MEM O/U: 224.5
DAL (-7.5) vs. ORL O/U: 207.5
UTA (-2) vs. PHI O/U: 210
MIL (-3.5) @ LAC O/U: 226
The blowout potential for Houston and the low pace for Dallas give me some early indicators of how this slate will shake down as I build my core. I'm a fan of giving exposure to the potential NBA Finals preview of MIL/LAC, and Memphis' infusion of new talent should make the MIN/MEM game another plum target.
POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN
We're fairly stacked at guard on tonight's slate. And you should be able to find great value throughout the list. Things start to get dicey at forward once you get below DK's median of $6,250, so that may be a position where we're spending up. The center position is top-heavy with three bonafide elites you can build around, and beyond them, there are a few value plays worth scouting.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Kawhi Leonard (rest) - OUT
Kind of a shame in what could have been a fun game against the Bucks. While a host of guys should get a boost, but I think Maurice Harkless ($3,200) could yield the most value. Lou Williams ($6,500) should also assume a bigger role and may start in place of Leonard.
D'Angelo Russell (ankle) - OUT
Picking a Warrior out of the lot is a bit of a crapshoot, but Eric Paschall ($6,500) is who I'm currently most comfortable with.
Myles Turner (ankle) - OUT
Domantas Sabonis (calf) - OUT
Goga Bitadze ($4,200) had ownership of 90 percent in one of my contests last night and did exactly what you'd expect him to do in this game script, with a nice 32 DKFP score - excellent for this price.
Derrick Rose (hamstring) - OUT
Reggie Jackson (back) - OUT
Keep riding with Bruce Brown ($4,700) as this injury situation continues.
We also now know all about John Collins' suspension in Atlanta. It's widely speculated that Jabari Parker ($6,700) will be the guy to absorb a lot of his output, but there's also value to be had with De'Andre Hunter ($4,300).
ELITE PLAYERS
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($11,700) @LAC
Some of the heat is taken off this game due to Kawhi's absence, and I'm not completely sold on his price, but I'd be foolish not to mention the Greek Freak as a premier guy on the slate. He's scored over 50 DKFP in each of his last four games and went as much as 20 points above that number during that span. That's what you'll need from him to match value at this price, and it's quite feasible in what should still be a hotly-contested game.
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN ($10,000) @ MEM
It's looking more and more likely that the bulk of my lineups will have a center as its core elite, and Towns will make a showing in a lot of them. He should be well-rested and ready to go after serving a two-game suspension, and when he last faced the Grizzlies and Jonas Valanciunas, he went to town on them with 71 DKFP. The addition of Brandon Clarke gives Valanciunas a bit more support inside, but I expect Towns to come back and lay the hammer down with a huge stat line.
Luka Doncic, DAL ($9,800) vs. ORL
I hemmed and hawed about this pick because I absolutely detest the line, but on a night where both Harden and Westbrook will be in blowout mode, Doncic still looks sensible. If Vegas is correct, Doncic should still be a consistent presence even if the game gets out of hand, ad he's logged consistent minutes, no matter the score. The Magic are roughly middle of the pack versus opposing point guards, and they've recently given up big games to Chris Paul, Eric Bledsoe and Kyle Lowry.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Trae Young, ATL ($9,100) vs. CHI
I have no doubt that a lot of players will be calling Young's number on Wednesday. He started out cold in his return from injury but looked like his old self in the second half versus the Spurs. LeBron James is the only elite guy that the Bulls have faced in a point guard role, and the King absolutely destroyed them. While James and Young couldn't be less similar, they both have the ability to explode on any given night. Wednesday could be time for another massive line from Young.
Jeremy Lamb, IND ($6,900) vs. WAS
Even though the Wizards are on the tail-end of a back-to-back, Lamb has seen high ownership as the presumptive leader of this team while Victor Oladipo is sidelined. There's a plethora of guys around this price that will serve you with nights in the 30 DKFP range, but Lamb's ceiling is what you're reaching for at this price. The Wizards are about as bad as you can get defensively, so Lamb could have a field day despite the fatigue factor.
Clint Capela, HOU ($6,400) vs. GS
The Warriors are out of sorts and definitely have frontcourt problems without Draymond Green and Kevon Looney, so I think people will flock to Capela based on the Warriors' struggles and the overall lack of competition for playing time on the Houston roster. He's practically forced into a role where he's going to see a 30-minute load nightly. This fact gives me confidence in him, even if the game turns into a blowout.
RJ Barrett, NY ($6,700) at DET
The rookie will square off against one of the league's worst defenses so far this season, and as I've said in previous columns, the sharps seem to love this rookie. He's had high ownership on every slate, and that's mostly due to the very consistent floor he's presented so far. As long as he can stave off Frank Ntilikina, he should continue to see 30 minutes a game, and plenty of opportunities to put up respectable numbers.
VALUE PLAYS
I anticipate utilizing multiple elites on Wednesday, so we need some value shots to get us under our cap. I already identified some value in the injury section -- here are a few more worth considering.
T.J. Warren, IND ($5,800) vs. WAS
This is as high as I'll go in this section, but like Lamb, Warren is another guy that is taking the lead in this offense. While I don't expect the 48 DKFP he put on Charlotte, the 37.5 DKFP per player we need to get to 300 is definitely within the realm of possibility.
Isaiah Thomas, WAS ($5,300) at IND
Unlike many who want to see him fail, I'm a fan of Thomas and think he could fit in well opposite Bradley Beal as the regular guy in this offense. He's averaged right around 30 DKFP per game and has floated as high as 36 DKFP, which certainly isn't bad at this price.
Dillon Brooks, MEM ($4,900) vs. MIN
Brooks is seeing extensive court time off the bench and has largely delivered in every contest. Though he's only averaging 23 DKFP per game, he's popped for scores of 33 and 30 DKFP over a six-game span. The Timberwolves are soft against his position, so he's a nice-risk/reward candidate for me.
Here a few other guys at various price points that slipped through the cracks that I'm also endorsing:
Andre Drummond, DET ($10,800) vs. NY
Pascal Siakam, TOR ($8,000) vs. SAC
Zach LaVine, CHI ($7,200) @ ATL
Eric Bledsoe, MIL ($6,300) @ LAC
To conclude the article, a quick note about James Harden and Russell Westbrook. I'm sure you'll notice that I've excluded them from consideration tonight, despite the high O/U. I think both are in play, but I envision them on the bench in the fourth quarter of this contest. I can't tell anyone to fade them, but for tonight they are off my list.
