This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Wednesday offers us another massive 11-game slate with a list chock-full of the league's best talent -- let's get right to it!
SLATE OVERVIEW
GAMES TO TARGET
HOU (-8) @ WAS O/U: 230.5
Some of the league's top DFS targets will be on display here, and although some of the budget chalk is rising in price quickly on both teams, the potential point total makes for an ideal game to build from.
GSW (-5) vs. PHO O/U: 228.5
Resuscitated by a nice win against New Orleans, the Warriors head to Phoenix set to prove that they have enough offensive firepower to compete. Two of the league's best players face off against the budget-friendly Suns, whose highest-priced player is at an attractive $7,500.
MIL (-2.5) @ BOS O/U: 222
This game will probably be one of the more competitive games on the slate, as two candidates for the East title will tangle in the Garden. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10.800) will attempt to rebound from what most would consider as a down game versus Cleveland.
GAMES TO FADE
ORL (-9) vs. NY O/U: 205.5
I think Vegas isn't giving the Knicks enough credit, but either way, this game will prove to be a bit of a snoozer for DFS purposes. Like most games I select to fade, you might find one or two guys to take a flier on in GPPs, but the expected point total will be enough to keep me away from most options here.
TOR (-9) vs. NY O/U: 209.5
This is another case where Vegas seems to underrate a team early, namely the Pistons. They'll be a lot more threatening when Blake Griffin returns, but for now, you're looking at a team with just one dependable option in Andre Drummond ($9,400). On the other end, there are more tantalizing selections, but I'm going to curb my exposure to most of them in what should be a pace-down fame for the Raptors.
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change)
POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN
Like most slates of this size, the field isn't going to have many soft spots. The guard pool is massive, and the forward selections are deep, but center might be where we see a significant drop after the top four. I will likely opt to go high at this position.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
BOS: Enes Kanter OUT; Daniel Theis QUESTIONABLE
This situation could open op an opportunity for Robert Williams ($4,600), especially if Theis fails to suit up. If Theis ends up playing, his $4,400 price tag makes him a viable budget candidate.
POR: Zach Collins OUT
Saddled with a lot of other long-term absences, Portland will lean on Hassan Whiteside ($6,700), and although we'll likely see a start for Anthony Tolliver ($3,200) he's a high risk/reward candidate who will lose minutes to guys like Mario Hezonja and Skal Labissiere, potentially crippling his value.
OKC: Steven Adams QUESTIONABLE
The fact that Adams actually requested to be removed from the last game due to a knee issue is evidence that it wasn't minor. Even though he brushed off concerns about the injury, I would keep an eye on this situation. If he doesn't go, Nerlens Noel ($3,300) would likely be the next guy up.
ELITE PLAYERS
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($10,800) @ BOS
Giannis had a down game against the Cavs, but he also only logged 29 minutes in a game where the Bucks were in control for the duration. I suspect he'll take on a much larger role against a Boston team that's already yielding an average of 31.2 DKFP against much weaker opposing forwards.
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN ($9,900) vs, Joel Embiid, PHI ($10,000)
Let's assume we like both of these guys equally in a vacuum. A closer look at last year's matchups only reveals one game when they were both on the floor, and Embiid easily outplayed Towns, who actually failed to meet projections in both games against Philly. That's cause enough for me to move off Towns and roll with Embiid instead.
Russell Westbrook, OKC ($9,600) @ WAS
I'm still going to roll with Westbrook as James Harden's streaky shooting makes him not quite worth the price tag. Although Westbrook isn't cheap, either, I feel a bit more confidence in him as his one-year history versus the Wizards is a little better than Harden's.
I'm also somewhat enthusiastic about rostering Stephen Curry ($9,500) against the Suns, but I do so with a modicum of caution. D'Angelo Russell ($7,900) is a streaky guy who can take over a game at any given moment, and he's had historical success against the Suns. The point differential between these two have been enough to warrant fading Curry in direct comparison to Russell based on price, but against the field, Curry still looks like a reasonable play.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
I will do my best to hit a couple of players at every position in this section.
Kyle Lowry, TOR ($7,400) vs. DET
I did have this game as one to fade, but Lowry has quietly upped his game in the early stages of the season. As the weeks wear on, we'll likely see Lowry take rest days here and there, but his early four-game average of around 42 DKFP per game is extremely attractive relative to his price tag. Additionally, the Pistons have struggled against opposing point guards so far, yielding big totals to Malcolm Brogdon and Ben Simmons.
C.J. McCollum, POR ($6,600) @ OKC
Simply put, McCollum has been crushing it, and demonstrating some serious upside relative to his price. McCollum historically plays tag with Damian Lillard as to who will go off for the night, but C.J's price is low enough that it's a sound investment to expose yourself to that risk. Wednesday's matchup is also favorable, as the Thunder is giving up 32 DKFP versus opposing shooting guards so far this season.
Tobias Harris, PHI ($6,700) vs. MIN
I really like Harris in this spot. He's currently averaging close to 40 DKFP per game and will lineup against journeyman Treveon Graham for most of the game, which should be a complete mismatch. I expect sky-high ownership for Harris, but that won't keep me from rostering him in my cash builds.
Bojan Bogdanovic, UTA ($5,500) vs. LAC
The Clippers will face the tough Utah defense in what should be one of the team's biggest challenges to date. Say what you will about the Clippers -- though they're stacked offensively, their defensive numbers have left a bit to be desired thus far. Bogdanovic is seeing a whopping 38 minutes per game in the earlygoing and averaging close to 40 DKFP over three contests. That's quite a bargain for $5,500 in a game that I think will be close and competitive.
Myles Turner ($7,000) or Domantas Sabonis ($7,900) IND @ BKN
Although he's gotten better over time, Jarrett Allen isn't known for his defense. DeAndre Jordan is also primarily an offensive threat and effective off the glass, but there's no question that Brooklyn's soft spot is in the interior. Both of these guys are priced reasonably enough, and I predict a lot of DFS pros will follow suit and give them more exposure than usual. I wouldn't stack them, but I would seriously consider rostering one of them, with a nod to the slightly higher-priced Sabonis.
VALUE PLAYS
Here's where we will make or break our slate. Most, if not all of these picks will be geared towards achieving room for 1-2 elites, so the prices will sit at and below the $5,000 range.
Rui Hachimura, WAS ($5,400) vs. HOU
The rookie has an interesting matchup against P.J. Tucker, who I also like at $4,800. I rate Hachimura a lot higher than some of my RotoWire counterparts, primarily due to the opportunity he has to make an impact in Washington. So far, he hasn't disappointed, with a three-game average of 30.2 DKFP per game, while seeing 30+ minutes in each contest. Houston has given opposing interiors a good bit of room in the early going, so I like Hachimura as a decent, low-owned value opportunity.
Josh Richardson, PHI ($5,300) vs. MIN
The Richardson hype train rolls on in DFS circles, and I must admit I've been off of him so far. I'm beginning to change my mind now that he's firmly planted himself into the starting lineup at the two, and is finding his shot after some bad shooting nights in the preseason. I would prefer him to stay off the deep ball, as currently, he isn't shooting purely enough to be an asset from that range. He hits enough of the ancillary categories to be relevant, but what we're really looking for is a more consistent conversion percentage and a good plus-minus.
T.J. Warren, IND ($5,100) at BKN
The minutes are certainly there for Warren, and he's never afraid to put up shots. He finally converted more of them against Detroit, and added an impressive five steals in that contest. I think most Pacers will be low-owned on Wednesday, but Warren could yield a good total relative to his price tonight.
Davis Bertans, WAS ($3,700) vs. HOU
When you see a guy at this price game logging over 30 minutes a game, you have to give him an extended look based on opportunity alone. We're seeing a steady upward trend in both minutes played and production over the first three games of the season. His rebounding numbers are a little less than I'd like to see, but at this low price he should be capable of beating value with ease.
I'll conclude this article with a small list of other players I favor tonight, but since the slate is so large, I don't have room to give a detailed report on all of them:
Fred VanVleet, TOR ($6,100) vs. DET
Kemba Walker, BOS ($8,300) @ MIL
Kelly Oubre, PHO ($6,200) @ GS
On a final note, I think on slates this large, I think you have two ways to go. You can either load up on elites for a stars-and-scrubs approach, or build your lineup around one elite and round out with a more balanced lineup. I think the latter is usually the way to go, and I think it's especially true on this slate, with many worthwhile options in the $6-$7K range.
As always, check in with RotoWire before game lock to get up-to-date information on your selected players!
