This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Sunday's featured slate on DraftKings offers seven games that kick off at 6 PM ET. Several elites and a host of value options are available for our lineup builds. Let's first take a look at how the sportsbooks are approaching the contests.
PHI (-13) vs. CHA O/U: 217.5
ORL (-3.5) vs, IND O/U: 204
MIL (-7) @ OKC O/U: 222
NY (-2) vs. CLE O/U: 214
PHO (-3) vs. BKN O/U 233
POR (-8) vs. ATL O/U: 227.5
LAL (-10) vs. TOR O/U: 216
GAME TO TARGET
In order to bring more picks to the forefront, I will be fleshing out selections in these targeted games that receive equal endorsement alongside my other targets for the slate.
BKN/PHO
This game checks all the boxes - a high O/U, a narrow spread, and star power galore. Kyrie Irving ($9,700) leads the way in terms of price. And if you're looking at his past five contests, it's hard to find a point guard with a more stable floor. He continues to coast along with DKFPs in the high 40s and low 50s, and last season blew out projections in his two games against the Suns. The major injury exploit involves DeAndre Jordan (ankle) who is probable to return today, but could you really fault the Nets if they took it easy with Jordan after what Jarrett Allen ($6,100) did over the past two games? With 37 DKFP against Portland and 34 against New Orleans, it's a good idea to check the news later about Jordan's potential minutes. And if he's on a restriction of any kind, Allen deserves a look. Both Caris LeVert ($6,100) and Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,000) are nice targets at the mid-level, with Taurean Prince ($5,700) and Joe Harris ($5,100) coming in as value options for Brooklyn.
On the Phoenix side, you're getting stable star power from Devin Booker ($7,900) who also saw his price dip $500 after an uncharacteristic 32 DKFP day against Miami. Ricky Rubio ($7,100) continues to drop dimes in Phoenix, and that stat alone is helping him hit career levels that he hasn't seen since his days in Minnesota. Aron Baynes ($6,000) remains a decent target in place of Ayton, and could be in for a monster game against a soft Brooklyn frontcourt that's given up an average of 38 DKFP per game to opposing centers. Despite the high O/U, I'm limiting my picks to these three for the Suns, especially in cash games. There's just too much variance below Baynes.
GAME TO FADE
IND/ORL
You'll find some injury situations to potentially take advantage of here (see below), but I'm keeping my exposure low in this game. Most of the guys on both teams are overpriced relative to their potential contribution on Sunday, and the low O/U almost guarantees we'll fall into some traps if we pay too much attention to targets here.
POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN
Aside from some injury exploits, center looks like the safest place to spend up on Sunday as we see a pretty solid drop-off in production below $8,500. If you don't spend up, then you're likely reaching to the DK median or below, as the mid-priced guys aren't really attractive targets. Things are a lot more palatable at guard, where there are solid values top-to-bottom. it's a little dicey at forward below $6,000, but it certainly isn't terrible for a seven-game slate.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Ben Simmons (shoulder) OUT - Raul Neto ($4,500) is our value pivot here, but the rest of the Philly starters are all worth a look as prime point absorbers in Simmons' absence.
Hassan Whiteside (foot) QUESTIONABLE - It's unclear if Whiteside will play, but if he's out I would put Mario Hezonja ($4,100) at the op of my pivot list with Skal Labissiere (ankle) also injured.
Kyle Lowry (thumb) OUT - This will soon be demoted to an ongoing injury situation that won't merit a mention for some time. Norman Powell ($4,000) is currently your best pivot option here.
Serge Ibaka (ankle) OUT - Chris Boucher ($3,200) is in line for a boost, but it's Pascal Siakam ($9,400) who will see some major floor solidification and raise him to elite status.
Jeremy Lamb (ankle) OUT
Myles Turner (ankle) OUT
As I stated above, I'm not a huge fan of this game but I still think T.J. Warren ($5,800) could meet value in this game script, and of course Domantas Sabonis ($8,300) is always in play when Turner is out - I just don't like the price tag in such a slow-paced game.
ELITE PLAYERS
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($11,200) @ OKC
The train keeps on rolling for the Greek Freak. With three straight games at 60 DKFP and above, he's a difficult guy to fade. Let's say he hits 60 at this price - he still comes in at 5.3x value and about $186 per point. So despite the price tag, he's still perfectly reasonable.
LeBron James ($10,300) and Anthony Davis ($9,900), LAL vs. TOR
I don't list them together to say they are interchangeable - they certainly aren't. The rationale is pretty simple. The absence of Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka both impact their potential in this game. While Pascal Siakam will handle the frontcourt aptly, facing Anthony Davis is no laughing matter. Unfortunately, there's no documentation of a game in the past year where these two were on the floor at the same time, but I would still have to give Davis a slight edge here. The synergy between Davis and James is important due to the King's hybrid point implementation. And I think this spot is so soft, you can roster both with some confidence. The tradeoff is you only have $5,000 per player left for your remaining spots - but things could be worse!
Joel Embiid, PHI ($9,100) vs, CHA
The Hornets haven't played against a notable center over the past five games, so Embiid's presence will be a rude awakening. At this price, we really need Embiid to break free from the 40 DKFP doldrums. And in recent days, we've seen glimpses of a breakout. Is Simmons' absence a plus or minus for Embiid? The safe answer is, it depends. Guys like Tobias Harris and Josh Richardson would need to be a bit less selfish and funnel the ball inside, and maybe some errant backcourt shooting could make Embiid primed for a few putbacks to pad his score.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Trae Young, ATL ($9,200) at POR
No doubt he'll be highly owned, but I am just not sure about Young. He drops off about 8-10 DKFP when he's on the road, but Portland has been extremely forgiving to opposing point guards, Perhaps the matchup will help cancel out that metric. He looked great against the Kings two days ago, and an injury-free Young could certainly net 50 DKFP, but that's really the amount we need to make him worth it.
Jabari Parker, ATL ($6,800) at POR
Parker has proven he's the answer for John Collins, with an average hovering near the 40 DKFP range. That's good for almost 6x value, and I'll take that kind of salary/point ratio all the way to the bank. With Hassan Whiteside's potential absence, Parker's needle could move even higher.
Devonte' Graham, CHA ($6,700) at PHI
The coming-out party for Graham continues as his sophomore breakout season has arrived. Although he's not the everyday starter, he still sees more than 30 minutes per game, and a Philly team without Ben Simmons could be a palatable spot for Graham. The only knock is that they're making a trip from Charlotte to Philly on a back-to-back, although I wouldn't heavily factor in fatigue at this early stage of the season.
Eric Bledsoe, MIL ($6,200) @ OKC
Bledsoe's been hanging around at this price churning out value like crazy when healthy. Over the past five games, he's sitting right near 40 DKFP. And if we can get him on Sunday for just $155 per point, I'm grabbing him and I suspect many others will follow suit.
VALUE PLAYS
As we dip below the DK median, I'm not seeing as many budget options as I'd like. We'll do our best, though.
Kelly Oubre, Jr, PHO ($5,900) vs, BKN
The fast pace and high over/under here might be enough to get Oubre over the 30 DKFP threshold, but it's a risk I'm only taking in a tournament lineup. He's been on a disappointing stretch, but the situation couldn't be any more favorable than it is on Sunday.
Kyle Kuzma, LAL ($4,300) vs. TOR
I'm waiting on a big day from him, and Toronto ranks 30th against his position. Could this be the day? It's insane to even suggest Kuzma is battling for playing time, but that's what happens when Avery Bradley and Danny Green play well enough to keep you off the floor. He certainly looks healthy, and though he needs to ease off the long range shots until he sheds some rust, I think Kuzma's price is just too good. Even if we could just get 28-30 DKFP here, we're justifying the add at this price.
George Hill, MIL ($4,100) at OKC
If the game gets out of hand, could we see more of Hill in the second half? If the Bucks' second unit shows that they can handle the Thunder, Hill could find himself in a nice spot for this price. If he can replicate his excellent game against the Clippers earlier in the week, he'd absolutely destroy value. I wouldn't expect that from him, but he could definitely pop if he gets enough minutes.
Be sure to check back in with RotoWire for the latest information before Sunday's games lock.
