This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
For Sunday's schedule, we will exclude the early ORL/DET game and instead focus on the remaining five-game slate that will begin at 6 PM ET.
I've been toying with lineups for a good 30 minutes before penning this article, and usually, I'll have a good blueprint for how to move forward, but slim slates like these are tough. The margin for error is greater, and I'm still stewing over where to spend high. First though, a little summary of how I did regarding last night's picks.
The answer: Pretty darn well. I hit every contest I entered, running with only slight variations from a Harden/Durant/Jokic stack that I endorsed. Picks of Jeff Green and Thomas Bryant were also chalk across the board, with a dash of Cody Zeller, and I finished solidly in the 330-340 range. Great for cash and enough for a solid GPP double-up. No big money, but a substantial profit.
On the injury front, one situation sticks out that may make or break the value side of my lineup construction, and that's the status of DeAndre Jordan. A pivot to Dwight Powell ($3,500) would make things a lot easier for us, but as of right now we don't know how this will shake out. You could make a case for Powell either way and hope that Jordan plays fewer minutes, but I'm not high on taking that risk.
The other place that is in question involves Joel Embiid. Again, our value selection would get a big boost from Mike Muscala ($3,700), but the handicap here is that this game against the Trail Blazers is one of the last games on the slate. I'm a bigger proponent of playing wait-and-see with Embiid and using a Philly placeholder like J.J. Redick or a mid-value Portland player like Aminu, and if Embiid is out, I could then slide Muscala in and find a spend-up among the remaining games. Jordan's game tips off at the same time. Unless we get early news, this would be a tight call to make, but I think on such a shallow slate, it's worth trying if you're at the ready.
Most of the injury landscape remains the same, but it looks like we may have Paul George back, and that will also be worth monitoring. It profoundly impacts where we spend up tonight. If George doesn't suit up, Russell Westbrook's high price becomes more palatable.
Here's what I'm going to do today, and will probably continue to do moving forward when it's applicable. I'm going to lay out my usual assortment of options, and then give a couple of scenarios of lineup construction that I favor among the endorsements I've given. That's how I gave you the Harden/Durant/Jokic stack yesterday, so it seems like a good plan.
GUARDS
Luka Doncic, DAL vs. OKC ($8,100): I was already clear about Westbrook and Simmons will get a mention below, but I think Doncic's floor is solidifying to a point where I can ride him at this price and not worry about taking a hit. His five-game DKFP average has him sitting right at 45, and I can justify paying the price for the potential ceiling that might pop in this matchup. He had 42 DKFP against the Thunder in their last matchup, but if we end up without Embiid, we're playing a drastically different team.
Lonzo Ball, LAL vs. SAC ($6,700): Ball has been on fire without Rajon Rondo and LeBron in the lineup, and if you look at that 57 DKFP beatdown he gave the Kings earlier in the week, you're salivating at the potential of a repeat performance. Aside from switching the venue to the Staples Center, I don't see any reason why this situation can't be replicated.
Brandon Ingram, LAL vs. SAC ($5,900): I couldn't find a reliable place to land much lower than this, so you'll have to forgive my inability to diversify our salaries like I usually do, but trust me – it's for your own good. I think DraftKings should consider giving Ingram a forward designation, but for now, we're locked into using him at guard or utility. A Lakers stack is actually conceivable here. Granted, Ingram didn't have the game that Ball had against the Kings, but he fared better than Kuzma. All you have to do is look at the trend since his return from injury to realize his potential here. Without LeBron stealing his thunder, Ingram could erupt for a big total.
Other guards to consider: Ben Simmons, PHI at POR ($8,500), Justise Winslow, MIA vs. MIN ($6,500), Tyus Jones (if Teague sits), MIN at MIA ($4,900)
FORWARDS
Kawhi Leonard, TOR vs. CHI ($9,200): Leonard, and the rest of the Raptors, really let me down against the Magic. I expected Vucevic to have a good game, but I didn't see that kind of a beatdown coming. I think you have to expect a rebound from the Raptors here, and I doubt Kawhi was too pleased about his performance in his last game. I think his ownership will still be high despite his mediocre outing, but it's looking more and more likely that he'll be a focal point of my rosters today.
Lauri Markkanen, CHI at TOR ($6,600): Little by little, the Bulls are letting Markkanen go, and let's face it – the Bulls have nothing to lose, especially against Toronto. They're going to let him try to be the difference-maker, and it's patently clear that he has all the tools to make that happen. Since they let him loose, he's averaged around 40 minutes and has established a decent DKFP floor in the low 30's. This is more of a GPP play due to what I think will be really low ownership. I believe Orlando showed us that Toronto has some soft spots, and there's a good chance that Markkanen can find them.
Harrison Barnes, DAL vs. OKC ($5,500) OR Jerami Grant, OKC at DAL ($5,000): This is a tale of two lines that will likely be identical, but only if we see George off the floor. If George were to sit, I'd be happy saving the $500 and getting a similar line, but I think rostering Barnes is ultimately the safer play. Wesley Matthews is out, DeAndre Jordan is a question mark, and the Mavs are going to need their veteran to contribute.
Other forwards to consider: Jimmy Butler, PHI at POR ($6,700), Bogdan Bogdanovic, SAC at LAL ($5,600)
CENTERS
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at MIA ($9,800): If you're looking for eye-popping totals, a center isn't a bad place to spend up today, and I'm certainly considering it. My instincts tell me that Embiid will be out, but even if I'm wrong, I'm ok with leaving that potential output on the table. And spending a little less on Towns, who should have a double-double kind of night against the Heat. He might be a bit high-priced, which is why I felt the need to look back to 2017 and see how Towns fared against the Heat and the results were pretty good. Towns hasn't met value against many tough defenses, but I'm ok with him tonight.
Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. PHI ($7,000): While writing a wrap for Nurkic the other night, I marveled at how well the guy has been playing lately. And wouldn't it be great if Embiid was out? Yes, it would. Nurkic has become an almost-nightly double-double threat, and while the backcourt will have their hands full with Simmons and Butler, Nurkic could be set up for a nice total, especially if Embiid sits.
For the third slot, I'm leaving it to the Mike Muscala/Dwight Powell situation I mentioned above. I really do think it's worth saving some money here if you can wait around for the news.
Here are some stack considerations. As I said, I'm leaning toward Leonard as my lead, and I think that based on the Embiid question mark, I'd be an idiot to not go with Simmons here. If I slotted in a Doncic or even Damian Lillard (unmentioned but I like the play) as well, I still have an average of $4,800 per player Add Nurkic, and you're down to $4,300 per player.
For me, this makes Towns an unlikely reach unless I made him my third, in which case you'd be looking at $4,500 per player and a nearly identical player pool. Should George play, he becomes an immediate consideration in this stack, and if he sits, Westbrook becomes viable, though you'd have to sacrifice more to make that happen. So, that's where I am at right now. I hope it's helped you out!
