This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Our Sunday column will be confined to the nine-game slate available for a 6:00 PM ET tip-off, so the ATL/DET and WAS/IND games will be excluded.
There's one injury in particular that caught my eye as I began my analysis, and that is the questionable designation applied to Derrick Rose in tonight's matchup against the Thunder. With Jeff Teague still sidelined, there is ample opportunity to exploit the Thunder's back-to-back status with Josh Okogie ($4,100) if Rose sits. Tyus Jones ($4,300) also merits some consideration, but it's been Okogie who has logged the most minutes in relief of Rose in recent days. Rose's status is a spot to watch as the day moves forward.
Otherwise, the injury landscape is relatively similar to what we've experienced recently. Kris Dunn ($7,200) remains a reasonable pivot for Zach LaVine (ankle), and Nikola Mirotic (ankle) is doubtful, making way for Julius Randle ($7,800) to put up decent numbers. Miami is still without Goran Dragic (knee), but Justise Winslow ($4,800) will likely return to the floor tonight, and I like his chances as the best pivot in this situation. Dallas also continues with their backcourt struggles as Dennis Smith (wrist) remains out, so J.J. Barea should once again see a bump in output.
GAME I LIKE: LAC at GS (-10), O/U-232.5: I'm a bit suspect of this 10-point spread. The world seems to think that the Clippers are due for a significant course correction, but I don't buy that claim. I expect the Warriors to prevail, but the Clippers won't make it easy. Your Warrior studs are all in play, and there are ample spots for value all over the Clippers' roster.
GAME I'LL FADE: PHO AT BRO (-8.5), O/U-221: I could make a case for Deandre Ayton ($7,300) against Jarrett Allen, but otherwise I'm at a loss as to how I'd find reliable totals in this game. I think both backcourts are pretty decent defensively so that the Russell//Booker face-off might neutralize each other's potential output. Otherwise, the number of targets make me wary of going to the well with anyone in hopes of a dominant performance.
Let's move on to my selections for tonight's slate! We'll find three picks at each position, and I'll do my best to provide a wide range of salaries from the top elites to the low-cost value plays.
GUARDS
Jrue Holiday, NO at SAC ($9,100): You're flipping a coin between Steph Curry and Holiday at this spot, and I could make a solid argument for either player. The slightly cheaper price tag is the tie-breaker for me here, as I think you'll see similar totals for both elite guards. I also favor Holiday's more reliable floor, as Curry's fortunes can sometimes depend on his 3-point proficiency. Neither the Kings nor the Clippers are particularly robust defensively against opposing point guards, so, as I said, it's a toss-up at this price point.
Brandon Ingram, LAL vs. MEM ($5,600): While Ingram was sidelined his salary sunk to a pretty desirable level and I think most will shy away from him as he regains his footing. He designation on DraftKings is a bit perplexing as we'll see him on the wing alongside Kyle Kuzma quite often. He still warrants consideration at guard here, but if you're genuinely suspect of his role tonight, I don't mind a play on Jordan Clarkson ($5,900) at a very similar price.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, LAC at GS ($4,700): I didn't dive too far into the bargain bin, although Okogie and Jones still hold value down under. SGA had an excellent first game against the Warriors, putting up 32.8 DKFP over 38 minutes, Although his totals have been a bit up-and-down, you have to expect a bit of extra adrenaline when you match up against a household name like Curry.
Other guards to consider: Kyrie Irving, BOS vs. CHA ($9,000), De'Aaron Fox, SAC vs. NO ($7.700), Lou Williams, LAC at GS ($6,400)
FORWARDS
Kevin Durant, GS vs. LAC ($9,400): After James, Davis, and Durant there's a bit of a drop-off at forward, as I think Paul George will be a bit tuckered out after his 43-point tour-de-force on Saturday. Durant turned in one of his best totals of the season against the Kings, posting a 71 DKFP beat-down in Sacramento earlier this month. Granted, he was shouldering a heavier load without Steph Curry in that game, but there's no reason to think that coach Steve Kerr won't attack their defense any differently, especially when they are so soft at the wing positions. Curry will face a stiffer opponent in De'Aaron Fox, so Durant should have ample opportunity to fire away.
Andrew Wiggins, MIN at OKC ($6,000): With some question marks about Derrick Rose's participation, Wiggins comes to mind as a guy that could absorb some output on Sunday. The Thunder are a tough defensive team, but they are coming off a hard-fought battle against the Jazz and will likely show some fatigue. Wiggins' totals have been capped at around 30 DKFP in recent days, but if Rose sits, you should give Wiggins a second look.
Marvin Williams, CHA at BOS ($5,600): Williams has averaged 40.5 DKFP over the past two games, so he's a reasonable candidate to keep things going in this price range. He was used sparingly when Charlotte last faced the Celtics, but he's as good of a choice as any in this price range when you consider recent production. I'm not opposed to taking a GPP flier on Justin Holiday ($5,400), but that pick holds a bit more risk.
Other forwards to consider:Julius Randle, NO at SAC ($7,800), Kyle Kuzma, LAL vs. MEM ($6,900), Montrezl Harrell, LAC at GS ($6,100)
CENTERS
Anthony Davis, NO at SAC ($11,300): After Davis, there's a huge drop-off at center, so baseline considerations make him a rock-solid pick at this position. Before you scream 'cop-out', I've found several scenarios where I can roster various trios of Davis, Durant, Curry, Holiday and Irving and still have plenty of 4K-range options to fill out my lineup, so don't be too quick to move past a potential 60 DKFP offering just because you've spent elsewhere. Do a little experimentation, and you'll be surprised at what you can afford.
Marc Gasol, MEM at LAL ($7,500): With JaVale McGee still shaking off an illness, Gasol should match up well against Ivica Zubac as Gasol is the more experienced of the seven-footers. Gasol has experienced some variance in his totals of late, but he appears to be rounding back into form. While most of the team will be figuring out a way to stop LeBron, Gasol could sneak in an impressive total.
Deandre Ayton, PHO at BKN ($7,300): This pick is worth re-stating. Whenever possible, you should always consider the opposing team's center against the Nets because, despite Jarrett Allen's talents, they can't seem to defend effectively against the position. It will no doubt be one of the messier contests on the slate, but Ayton is already making a strong case for ROY honors and should put up a good stat line here.
Other centers to consider: Draymond Green, GS vs., LAC ($6,400)
