This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We have another four-game slate to work with Sunday, and there's a lot to play for. Only Denver will be fighting to stave off elimination, with the rest of the series fairly tight. It's a full day of what should be good basketball, so let's jump in.
Slate Overview
Bucks (-4.5) at Bulls (o/u 218.5)
Warriors (-4) at Nuggets (o/u 225)
Heat (-2) at Hawks (o/u 221)
Suns (-2.5) at Pelicans (o/u 215.5)
There's nothing too surprising here, and Denver-Golden State stands out as a game to target based on the total. The valuation doesn't necessarily make that easy, especially with other spots emerging as strong areas. The Heat, Bucks and Suns are three examples where there is apparent value available due to the injuries they are facing or are likely to face.
Injury Situations to Monitor
George Hill, MIL (abdomen): questionable
Hill has missed the first three games of the series. His status hasn't been updated prior to Game 4, but the safe presumption is that he'll remain out.
Kyle Lowry, MIA (hamstring): questionable
Gabe Vincent, MIA (toe): probable
Lowry didn't practice Saturday, which lends more credence to him actually being questionable. Vincent, who is probable, is likely to see an increased role if Lowry can't go.
Caleb Martin, MIA (ankle): questionable
Martin is questionable, but appears likely to play. He's logged only 23 minutes through three games in the series, though he would likely see at least some benefit from Lowry being sidelined.
Bam Adebayo, MIA (quadriceps): questionable
It would be a shock to not see Adebayo on the floor. Dewayne Dedmon would likely start should Adebayo be ruled out.
P.J. Tucker, MIA (calf): questionable
There is no indication that Tucker will actually be sidelined, but Duncan Robinson would be the likely starter in his absence.
Clint Capela, ATL (knee): questionable
Capela injured his knee during the play-in game and has been sidelined since. His return would hurt Onyeka Okongwu, but he wouldn't likely return to a full role.
Other Notable Injuries
Khris Middleton, MIL (knee): out
Lou Williams, ATL (back): out
Devin Booker, PHO (hamstring): out
Top Players
Nikola Jokic ($11,600) is valued fairly reasonably given he's topped 50 DK points in every game this series. He produced an excellent performance in Game 3 at home against Golden State and should be the centerpiece of Denver's push to remain alive. Jokic is a clear cash game building block on the slate.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500) is in a similar position to Jokic as he's delivered efforts of 75 and 55 DK in the first two games against Chicago. His minutes were limited Friday due to the blowout victory, but this game should be more competitive. As a result, Giannis is likely to push more towards his typical heavy workload.
Chris Paul ($9,300) represents the misvalued star on the slate. After playing 33.1 minutes per game during the regular season, he's seen at least 35 in each postseason matchup. Without Devin Booker, Paul will be the centerpiece of the offense, and the results have followed so far.
Expected Chalk
Grayson Allen ($4,600) became the beneficiary of Khris Middleton going down. Bobby Portis ($6,200) entered the starting lineup over Allen and also played well. Portis did much better than expected with his 41 DK in Game 3, so he should also get a lot of attention on Sunday.
Nikola Vucevic ($7,900) has posted some big performances against Milwaukee, so he's likely to stay in the spotlight. His salary has bounced between $7,300 and $7,700 and is at a new peak Sunday. That's a bit of a concern, but not a huge red flag.
After a dreadful Game 1 against Miami, Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,100) has been a key part of the Hawks' offense. His value is also rising, but he's been excellent from a value perspective and should remain popular.
Value Plays
Even without a potential injury ahead of him on the depth chart, Gabe Vincent ($3,400) has been a nice punt play against Atlanta. He's played mid-20s minutes and has delivered close to a point a minute in the first three games. If Lowry is out, Vincent will become chalk.
Landry Shamet ($3,800) logged a massive 30 minutes in the absence of Devin Booker in Game 3. The results didn't follow, but we can bank on the role and hope the performance follows with valuation relatively tight. Given the low salary point, not much is required.
Speaking of minutes, CJ McCollum ($8,300) has topped 40 in each of the first three games against Phoenix. We can rely on his responsibility and expect he'll produces enough, which has happened to this point.
Will Barton ($5,800) has taken 18, 15 and 13 shots from the field in three postseason games. He shot well in the opening matchup, but has gone just 10-for-28 since. Even with that slump, Barton has chipped in enough peripheral production to be a strong play. If his scoring gets back on track, he could be key to Sunday's action.
