This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Monday's slate offers up six games of NBA action. Let's first look at the lines and O/U info for our six contests.
DET (-1) vs. MIN O/U: 220.5
BOS (-5) vs. DAL O/U: 218
SA (-11) vs. MEM O/U: 224
HOU (-5) @ NO O/U: 243
UTA (-10) @ GS O/U: 213
LAC (-10.5) vs. TOR O/U: 223
(Odds provided via DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change)
GAME TO TARGET
HOU @ NO
The first metric that stands out is the significant O/U from the sportsbooks, but there's chalky star power all over this matchup as well. Of course, James Harden ($11,300) and Russell Westbrook ($8,800) come to mind, and with Westbrook's price dipping to such a low level, it's hard to fade his potential ceiling. Harden is far and away the most expensive guy on the slate and I think we can get away with more if we flip to a counter instead of using a two-elite build. Aside from Clint Capela ($7,300) there isn't anyone else I'm particularly high on for the Rockets.
Conversely, I like a lot of spots from the Pelicans, and their backcourt situation has crystallized a little bit with Lonzo Ball (adductor) out of the lineup Monday. It's safe to throw your weight behind Brandon Ingram ($7,800) and Jrue Holiday ($7,400), but things get a little trickier at other positions. With Holiday shifting over to point guard, an opportunity opens up at the two, and I think both Josh Hart ($5,100) and J.J. Redick ($4,700) have the best chances to absorb output there. We could also see movement from Ingram, and an opening at the four could mean more minutes for Kenrich Williams ($4,300) although I'm more confident in Derrick Favors ($4,700) as your frontcourt option. Favors still carries a low price after coming back from a knee injury.
GAME TO FADE
UTA/GS
The state of affairs in the Bay is shaky, to say the least, and although you'd think an opportunity to get some run in the Warriors lineup would be a ticket to Valuetown, things haven't turned out that way. Aside from D'Angelo Russell ($8,300), there isn't a lot to like, although I would be willing to go with Alec Burks ($5,200), who distinguished himself with a value-crushing 38.75 DKFP performance in his last game.
Utah has a lot of viable targets but I worry that this game might get out of hand quickly. Bojan Bogdanovic ($6,200) is one guy that I think could beat value at his price, but Rudy Gobert has underperformed, and I think you can get away with less risk for someone close to Donovan Mitchell's price Monday.
POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN
You face a big drop-off at center after the top two guys, and it's a pay-up or punt scenario at that position. The guard position reaches very deep and you can find decent value all the way down to the high 5k range, which lessens your pressure to fire up an elite. The list of forwards just got more interesting, as it looks like we will finally see Blake Griffin ($7,200) take the floor. We'd need roughly 45 DKFP out of Blake at this price to make him worthwhile, and I don't think Detroit will give him enough minutes to reach that kind of total in his first game back.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Gordon Hayward (hand) OUT
You hate to see Hayward get bit by the injury bug again after he came back strong from last year's broken leg. One has to assume Grant Williams ($3,600) will be the best value pivot here, but Hayward's absence also gives Jayson Tatum ($7,500) a big boost in opportunity.
Enes Kanter (knee) QUESTIONABLE
As long as the team hangs on to the questionable tag, there's still a chance that he'll play despite missing seven games already. Assuming Kanter remains out, Robert Williams ($4,500) is my pick over Daniel Theis ($5,000) in this scenario.
Jeff Teague (illness) - QUESTIONABLE
Teage didn't play Sunday so his status for Monday's game is up in the air. Look to Josh Okogie ($4,700) and Jarrett Culver ($4,800) if Teague can't go.
ELITE PLAYERS
Before I endorse anyone, I'm inclined to recommend slight fades on Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,000) and Luka Doncic ($10,400). Granted these guys are practically matchup-proof, but both players are in subpar situations Monday. Over the past two years, Towns has never beaten projections when he's lined up opposite Andre Drummond ($9,800). Towns is also on a back-to-back after playing a full 41 minutes last night. Between the two, Drummond looks like a better play.
Things might look a little better for Doncic, but he faces a Boston team that ranks first in the league against opposing point guards. They've successfully squelched the likes of Dejounte Murray, Terry Rozier and Eric Bledsoe over the last two weeks.
Although he's on the cusp of the elites, I think I have to fade Kemba Walker ($8,900) as well. If you look at how he played against Doncic last year, he was fine, but not great. You could give him a slight boost due to a superior supporting cast, but I don't think we see more than 40 DKFP from Kemba, which puts him at around $200 per point. Our goal should consistently get as close to $150 as possible, so I don't think he's worth the cost.
Kawhi Leonard, LAC ($9,400) vs. TOR
You can't really call this contest a revenge game, as the All-Star left Toronto of his own accord. Still, this should be a fun game to watch. Aside from the Kawhi intangible, the Raptors shocked the Lakers at the Staples on Sunday without Kyle Lowry, and though they're probably gassed, they'd love to do an LA sweep. They've got an uphill battle to reach that goal, and I seriously doubt Kawhi will allow it.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Pascal Siakam, TOR ($6,700) @ LAC
Siakam didn't suffer much from his first-back-to-back of the season, and I think he'll be properly motivated to send Kawhi a message after spending the night in Los Angeles, basking in the glow of a signature win against the Lakers. Aside from a hiccup against the Bucks, he's off to a brilliant start and should post big numbers once again as he lines up opposite another former Raptors teammate, Patrick Patterson.
Kristaps Porzingis, DAL ($7,200) @ BOS
Porzingis is coming off a day of rest and is in a good spot to attack the spot where Boston is softest - the interior. Even if we see Kanter on the court tonight, Porzingis is a guy that can take over a game with the right set of opportunities. We've already mentioned what Doncic faces, so it's going to be all on KP to help Dallas stay competitive in this matchup.
Draymond Green, GS ($6,600) vs. UTA
I saved mentioning Green for this section, because talk about chalky! If he does indeed play, and all signs point towards it, he's going to end up being widely owned. The Warriors desperately need a spark, and Green's return COULD be what they need, but I'd be worried about a minutes restriction here. For that reason, he'll only get a tournament nod from me.
Jaylen Brown, BOS ($6,300) vs. DAL
I think Hayward's absence will affect everybody, including Brown. He's doing just fine on his own, however. Brown's ceiling is what's most attractive, as he's popped above his projected averages twice over his past five games. If he can get to 40 DKFP, he'll be exactly where we want him.
VALUE PLAYS
Bruce Brown, DET ($5,800) vs. MIN
As long as Reggie Jackson (back) is out, there should be ample opportunity for Brown, and he gets an extra treat Monday with another target to pass to in Blake Griffin. Griffin's insertion into the lineup should help everyone, but it should free up Brown considerably and might add an assist or two to his totals.
Marcus Smart, BOS ($5,400) vs. DAL
As I've said multiple times, I think everyone's production will need to rise in Hayward's absence, and I think one result will be a major shift in the regular lineup. I predict Boston will show a lot of looks with Tatum at the four and Jaylen Brown off the wing, which should give Smart the opportunity to share the backcourt with Kemba Walker more frequently than usual. It's just an educated guess, but it's one I'll fly with at this price point.
Norman Powell, TOR ($4,200) @ LAC
Although Fred VanVleet saw the biggest boost in Kyle Lowry's absence, Powell was in the mix as well, and if we can just get 25 DKFP for this price, we'd get the exact value we need in a budget selection.
Other values are in the injury section. I also found myself looking at Alec Burks much more than I had originally thought in my preliminary builds, so I would definitely still keep him in mind. As always, check back in with RotoWire later in the day to solidify your selections!
