Tuesday's main slate at FanDuel is a somewhat reduced eight-gamer, getting underway at 7:10 p.m. EDT. Six arms are priced between $9,000 and $11,000 before pitching options seem to decline rapidly. Pitching options are further reduced by uncertainty from Philadelphia and Toronto, and the presence of likely openers/bulk relievers from the Mets and San Diego.
The Dodgers (-275) enter as the slate's biggest favorite while that game also has the highest run total of the day at 9.5. Five additional games sit with totals at 8.5 or 9.0. Rain doesn't appear to be a serious threat, but needs to at least be monitored in New York and Minnesota, while winds look somewhat favorable in San Francisco.
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Pitching
Justin Wrobleski, LAD vs. COL ($9,900): This feels too obvious, so perhaps take the perceived chalk for cash builds and look elsewhere for low roster percentages in GPPs. Wrobleski has earned quality starts in five of his last six. The Rockies have a massive 25.9 percent K rate against lefties, paired with a league-low 83 wRC+. Wrobleski limited this lineup to one run across seven innings in Denver back in April, and Colorado comes with a slate-low 2.9 run expectancy. Jacob deGrom ($10,500) may be my high-end target for tournaments.
Joey Cantillo, CLE at MIN ($8,300): Cantillo has allowed two runs or less in four straight starts, twice going for 45 FDP or better, giving us an upside swing for a mid-tier price. The Twins have a modest 22.2 percent K rate, and will take walks (10.0 percent) off lefties, something that plagued Cantillo in his last outing. But they also have a low 90 wRC+ and .128 ISO, suggesting Cantillo can again limit damage. It's not a tried and true recipe for success, but Cantillo is the cheaper of two starters in a game that doesn't figure to be high scoring.
Trevor McDonald, SF vs. TOR ($7,500): The pay-down options are minimal at best Tuesday, so McDonald lands here almost by default. The game has a low 7.5 run expectancy despite some potential outbound winds, so this is merely an exercise in McDonald being the cheapest option who could give us some innings and a few Ks. The Blue Jays have just a 19.6 percent K rate, which absolutely reduces any ceiling potential. But a .138 ISO could allow for five relatively clean frames.
Top Targets
As this column has come together, it's presenting as the chalkiest I've had to break down this season. Michael Lorenzen is allowing a .490 wOBA and 1.171 OPS to lefties on the road. Shohei Ohtani ($4,000) isn't overpriced and should be highly rostered. The Dodgers have a plethora of lefties, so stacking is certainly in play. Kyle Tucker ($3,300) is hitting .378 over his last 11 and may be a less obvious play.
Perhaps less obvious, game-stacking Mets-Royals has some appeal to me. Kansas City will trot out Seth Lugo, who's allowed five homers in his last two starts, and the Mets seem likely to use Kodai Senga as a bulk reliever, backed by a bullpen that went five innings last night in a 10-inning win. If you don't want to mess with value options, Juan Soto ($4,000) and Bobby Witt ($3,900) are nice building blocks.
Bargain Bats
You have to assume everyone will stack Padres against Zac Gallen, who's allowed 20 runs in his last three starts and is surrendering a .438 wOBA and 1.036 OPS to righties on the road. Confidently back Manny Machado ($3,000) and Fernando Tatis ($3,100) as chalk, and see if San Diego puts another righty into their lineup for a potential value/contrarian play.
There are a plethora of options in this Royals-Mets game to help round out builds. Lane Thomas ($2,600) has hit safely in six of seven and should hit in a meaningful spot. Jared Young ($2,600) and Brett Baty ($2,500) figure to slot in against a righty, the latter coming with a ton of position flexibility.
Rafael Devers ($3,100) remains locked in with four homers in his last six and seven in his last 13, hitting .298 in that span, but the price hasn't risen in line with his form.
Stacks to Consider
Phillies at Andrew Abbott (Reds): Kyle Schwarber ($4,200), Bryce Harper ($3,900), Trea Turner ($3,000)
Diamondbacks at German Marquez/Jhony Brito (Padres): Corbin Carroll ($3,800), Ketel Marte ($3,600), Geraldo Perdomo ($3,000)
I'm lumping these two together as I believe this will be a stand you'll have to take for tournaments. We've identified some obvious plays across this slate, but choosing which stack to use here will differentiate your build, knowing full well you can't use both and still consider the chalk plays. The Phillies' trio is more expensive but has the better ballpark in their favor, and we can assume Abbott lasts longer on the mound (unless he's tagged early). If you want to get cute there, Alec Bohm ($2,800) is 4-for-7 with a homer and two doubles off Abbott. Turner is in the best form, hitting .333 over his last 13.
Meanwhile, Arizona is going to need their offense to match whatever Gallen surrenders. Marte is 14-for-46 (.304) with a .940 OPS off Marquez, but we can't guarantee two plate appearances against him. These three are a cheaper stack, but Petco Park isn't as favorable of a spot. Carroll is ice cold and likely will be ignored on most rosters.
