Dominic Smith

Smith's first full season with regular playing time did not go as planned as his production fell across the board. However, things may not be as discouraging as they seem. Smith's K% was in line with past seasons, though his 6.5% BB% was his lowest since 2018. A low BABIP and a precipitous decline in HR/FB were the culprits. While Smith's .368 BABIP in 2020 wreaked of good luck, his .298-mark last season was artificially low, with 2019's .320 most representative of his talent. His 10.9% HR/FB rate was wholly unlucky as his exit velocity on fly balls was like 2020. Further, Smith's average fly ball distance was eight feet longer last season compared to 2020, but his 2020 HR/FB was 22.2%. Smith's xStats from last season most resemble those from 2019, but he was also lucky that season. A rebound is in store, with playing time hinging on a universal DH since the Mets fortified their outfield.

It wasn't that long ago that Smith was attempting to prove he deserved an extended chance in the majors. His .937 OPS over the past two seasons shows he clearly belongs. Smith led the Mets in 2020 with a 165 wRC+ and 42 RBI, and he also tied for fourth in the majors with 32 extra-base hits (10 homers, one triple, 21 doubles). His defense remains a hindrance, but he served as the designated hitter only five times and split most of his time between first base and left field. His strong numbers over the past two seasons span only 139 games, so there's some question of whether it will translate across a full 162-game slate. Smith showed enough to guarantee playing time heading into spring training, but whether or not the National League adopts the DH again in 2021 will play a role in what those opportunities look like, especially with Pete Alonso not going anywhere.

We knew Smith could hit coming up through the minor leagues, so it was nice to see him hit for average for the first time at the major-league level last season in the playing time he did get. Smith is a defensive liability and that hurts his playing time as he is a hitter without a true position. Maybe he could be another James Loney if everything comes together for him offensively, but it's tough to envision 300 plate appearances for him if he stays in New York. His expected batting average was 42 points below his actual average while his expected slugging percentage was 125 points below his actual final number. Simply put, taking Smith's final 2019 line and trying to project that over increased playing time would be a bad process. Smith's skills garner attention in NL-only leagues, but in the reserve rounds. He will make a roster as he is out of minor-league options, but he does not necessarily need to make your roster on draft day.

Even though he's just 23 years old, Smith's window to convince the Mets he can be a productive part of their future is closing. As a first baseman in the National League, DH isn't an option, nor is changing positions in Smith's case. His plate skills continue to be the issue as last season's 32% strikeout rate in tandem with a paltry 2.7% walk rate won't get it done, even in today's whiff-forgiving landscape. Smith's aggressive approach hinders his ability to get to his power -- he chases at an above-average rate. He even struggled at Triple-A Las Vegas, posting a .708 OPS in one of the best hitting venues in the offense-happy Pacific Coast League. Even in the unlikely event Smith has a strong spring and breaks camp with the starting role, he's unlikely to hold it with slugger Peter Alonso knocking at the door.

A number of prospects enjoyed success right away upon arrival to the big leagues last season, but Smith was not among them. He posted just a 73 wRC+ in 49 games, although he was pretty unlucky on balls in play (.218 BABIP). The power was the one positive, which is surprising given that Smith has long been thought of as a hit-over-power first baseman. However, he did steadily increase his home-run totals on the farm in recent years, and is still just 22 years old, so perhaps that per-game power production wasn't so fluky. While Smith did see a sizable jump in strikeout rate following his promotion to the majors, the minor-league track record suggests he will cut that down with more exposure to big-league arms. Smith isn't guaranteed a major-league roster spot out of camp, as new acquisition Adrian Gonzalez may be given the starting job, but he's still an intriguing player in dynasty settings.

Smith made significant strides in the power department last season, as the sweet-swinging lefty hit 14 home runs and drove in 91 runs in 130 games for Double-A Binghamton, both career highs. Smith has always possessed the ability to hit for average, and he batted over .300 for the second consecutive season. The Mets used James Loney as a stopgap option last season, which is fitting given that's the comparison that has been used with Smith throughout his time in the minors. Nevertheless, if Lucas Duda continues to battle back problems, Smith could see the big leagues as soon as this upcoming season. He will likely head to Triple-A to start the year to continue working on his power stroke.

With Steven Matz set to officially graduate from prospect status, Smith is primed to become the class of the Mets' farm system. Drafted 11th overall out of high school in 2011, Smith made the jump to High-A St. Lucie to begin 2015. The results were generally excellent for a 20-year-old as Smith raked against both left- and right-handed pitching, though he displayed mostly gap power from the left side with a Florida State League-leading 33 doubles. Smith does not have as stocky a 6-foot frame as say Kyle Schwarber, but he makes consistent contact, and more of those hits are going to start leaving the yard as Smith continues to mature and especially when he reaches the launching pad at Triple-A Las Vegas. He probably won't reach the majors until 2017, but Smith should be a popular target in long-term keeper formats.

First base prospects that sign for $2.6 million out of high school are typically worth monitoring, and Smith is no different, although his 2014 numbers may not back that up. If one ignores the fact that he is a first baseman, a .271 average with a .344 OBP in a full season at Low-A looks pretty good for someone who turned 19 this past summer. But the fact that he hit just one home run in 518 plate appearances signals that the power may always be below average relative to Smith’s position. The 26 doubles he hit give hope for an eventual 10-20 home run season in the minor leagues, especially if he can add more muscle to his six-foot, 185-pound frame. However, he is still at least a couple years away from the big leagues, and projects as more James Loney than Prince Fielder, meaning he is only worth holding in deeper formats.

Smith, selected 11th overall out of high school by the Mets in the 2013 draft, has a sweet left-handed stroke with surprising power and a good eye at the plate, along with a solid glove at first base. He hit .287/.384/.407 along with three homers and 22 RBI in 167 at-bats for the Gulf Coast League Mets, turning it on after a slow start. Smith could open 2014 at Low-A Savannah and is as a top-five prospect in the Mets' system. With a gaping hole at first base, Smith could be fast-tracked to the majors, reaching New York as early as 2016.