Todd's Takes: Missed Calls, Fly Balls & a Tantrum

Pitchers' Duel in Philly

Aaron Nola and Sandy Alcantara did not disappoint. Neither hurler was completely dialed in Monday, but both gutted out long outings with Nola going seven and Alcantara garnering 7.2 frames. It's fair to question whether Alcantara should have been allowed to get one more out, but he was clearly gassed. Alcantara opened the eighth by walking Rhys Hoskins. He looked shaky, and taking him out would have been defensible, but manager Don Mattingly left him in with clear instruction not to give Bryce Harper anything to hit. Alcantara issued the old "unintentional, intentional walk" to Harper, then threw a ball to J.T. Realmuto ... except it was called a strike.

The next pitch was nasty, with Alcantara shattering Realmuto's bat with a 6-4-3 double play. John Kruk astutely pointed out had the first pitch been called a ball, Realmuto may not have swung at the second pitch. I though this was a great point and wish this sort of thing were pointed out more often.

Earlier in the contest, Jon Berti stole second ... or did he? It certainly appeared he was out on replay, but the Phillies didn't challenge. He eventually scored, but other than tacking a run onto Nola's ledger, it didn't affect the outcome. That said, the play was another example of something I first noticed a couple years ago, and have begun to hear broadcasters corroborate my suspicions.

It stems from how well replay can pinpoint when the tag is applied and when the runner contacts the bag. Ideally, catchers would put the ball on the bag, so the fielder can receive it and tag the would-be stealer with minimal glove movement. If the ball beat the runner to the base, he was routinely called out. Then replay came along. 

First, fielders learned to keep the tag applied in case the runner lost contact with the bag, even for a split second. Now, I'm convinced catchers are throwing the ball a bit up the line, with the fielder catching the ball a step in front of the base, then applying the tag to the runner's torso. It may not seem like much, but the throw is shorter when it doesn't travel the full 127 feet, 3 and 3/8 inches. Plus, it doesn't have to be as accurate and the fielder has a lot more surface area to tag. Not to mention, the runner can't perform an evasive slide, other than sliding toward the back of the bag to lengthen the throw. 

Most often, the runner is called safe, because the umpire is trained to get in position to see what's happening at the base and can't really see the runner touch the bag and the tag being applied. However, replay can. I am sure teams are aware of this and are coaching their backstops to throw the ball up the line a bit.

How Do They Know?

I consider myself a casual DFS player, maybe playing three or four times a week. Lately, I've been dabbling in some of the prop bets, especially strikeouts. Living in Massachusetts, I can't play the sports books offered on the DFS sites, but there are a couple sites specializing in prop-type contests where I can play. 

Monday night, I took the over on Alek Manoah and 5.5 strikeouts, pairing it with Kyle Bradish falling shy of 3.5 punch outs. Manoah finished with seven while Bradish whiffed only three. Yay me, I tripled my extremely modest entry. While I don't NEED the juice to enjoy watching baseball, it's fun. If you don't want to spend the time on DFS, strikeout props are a blast.

This same site also runs a nightly home run derby contest. You pick three players, then decide if you want to predict if they'll hit over .5, 1.5 or 2.5 dingers. Obviously, the payout goes up for more homers. This season, I dusted off my DFS engine, which projects the line for every hitter and pitcher on a daily basis. As such, I can compare what my little black box says to the lines. In the case of hitter homers, I can use the three batters with the highest probability of going deep. Again, I don't play much, but it can add a little excitement. Last night, my home run luck fell short as I failed to check the weather and didn't realize a tornado was threatening Wrigley Field and had already locked Luke Voit and Manny Machado in as they enjoyed the platoon edge on Justin Steele. Jose Altuve completed the trio, with no one clearing the fences. Oh well.

Is it Really?

Flipping around the games, I heard several references to the ball traveling farther than earlier in the season. I ran some numbers in early June showing runs and homers are up, but strikeouts are down.

So far this month, strikeouts have dropped to 21.6 percent while scoring is up to 4.64 runs per game. Homers have increased to 3.2 percent, indeed suggesting fly ball distance is increasing. As I've discussed, fly ball distance is an excellent indicator of power. As such, I ran some numbers, looking at average fly ball distances on a weekly basis.

 I don't know, are fly balls really traveling further? While this can be filed under data can be spun to fit any agenda, here is the above in terms of four-week rolling averages:

Rolling averages smooth away the highs and lows. Looking at the data now, sure, the ball is traveling a few more feet, no doubt due to warmer temperatures. The mercury will continue to climb, bringing more humidity, both of which should further this trend.

For what it's worth, compared to last season, distances (and homers) are still down. HERE is a good piece on what is known about the ball and it's flight.

Temper, Temper

Lance Lynn made his 2022 debut on Monday night. His season was delayed after having surgery for a slight tear in a tendon by his right knee, an injury incurred late in spring training. Lynn started three rehab games for Triple-A Charlotte, compiling 10 innings with 9.00 ERA and 1.70 WHIP, fanning eight with just two walks.

Even though Lynn wasn't sharp during his rehab, Lynn was likely active for most fantasy teams since he was facing a beatable Detroit Tigers lineup. Early on, Lynn looked a lot like he did in rehab, allowing seven hits and three runs over the first two innings. The burly righty settled down a bit, yielding only three more hits in 2.1 frames. He fanned four with no walks in his initial outing of the year.

I was focusing on the pitcher's duel in Philly, but wanted to get eyeballs on Lynn, so I was flipping back and forth. Upon returning to the White Sox-Tigers affair, the broadcast was showing Lynn in the dugout, shouting at third base coach Joe McEwing. I was listening to the Phillies-Marlins game, and by the time I got the sound on the White Sox game, the clip was over and the announcers were calling the game. I did a little research this morning and while there wasn't anything definitive (apparently Lynn indicated they were arguing over their favorite meal), the suggestion was Lynn was simply frustrated over his early inning struggles and wanted to fire himself up, as well as the team. Still, it was odd to see a pitcher blasting a third base coach.

In this game, Jake Burger had to leave after being hit on the hand by a pitch. The X-Rays were negative so it's being considered a bruise, but often hand injuries aren't detected by X-Rays so it's worth tracking the recently-hot third baseman.

Most of the White Sox offense was powered by Jose Abreu's pair of homers. The power display was a welcome sight as the veteran has been snake bit in the home run department. Abreu's average exit velocity on fly balls this season is the third highest of his career since Statcast began tracking in 2015. Last night's long balls were his eighth and ninth of the campaign, to go along with 15 hard hit fly ball outs. That's 15 times he hit a fly ball over 95 mph to have it land in leather. Look for Abreu's power and average to inch up from its present pace over the rest of the season.

Box Score Blitz

The Atlanta Braves stayed hot, but lost Ozzie Albies to a broken foot. Dansby Swanson had already been elevated to the two-hole, so there won't he a change there. However, Albies prolonged absence opens up the fifth spot which is conducive for RBI in a solid Braves lineup. Marcell Ozuna, William Contreras and Adam Duvall are all candidates to benefit, with Ozuna the most likely to get first crack.

Matt Chapman remained out of the Blue Jays lineup, but is close to returning. His underlying metrics portend a strong finish to the season. Targeting Chapman in a trade makes sense, especially if you can do it where he isn't the key acquisition.

I didn't catch much of the Cardinals-Pirates affair, but I flipped to it during the Redbirds sixth inning rally. When Dylan Carlson tied it up with his three-run homer, you would have thought it was a ninth inning playoff game. The crowd went nuts. Granted, the St. Louis fandom is one of the most rabid in the game, but it was still cool. It isn't the same everywhere, but after what we all went through in the offseason, the reaction brought a smile to my face. That said, the downside of this is the owners knew the hardcore fans would come back, which plays into their hands. Eh, I want to keep this upbeat, so let's move on.

The Rangers bullpen outpitched the Astros relievers in the a battle of Lone Star State clubs with Hector Neris yielding three runs in third of an inning. Those picking up Eli White for steals need to find a replacement as he'll be sidelined for at least six weeks after surgery on a fractured wrist. The Rangers called up Leody Taveras who was playing well for Triple-A Round Rock. Taveras struggled last season, but had posted an .820 OPS with seven homers and seven steals for the Express.

Last night's win means the Reds have gone 19-17 since their woeful 3-19 start. Hunter Strickland closed the 5-4 victory over the Diamondbacks. Strickland's health is always a concern, as is 17 walks in 22 innings, so don't go overboard chasing saves. It was good to see Mike Minor rebound and it will be even better to see Jonathan India finally return for Cincinnati.

Alex Wood came through in the first of two favorable starts this week with a quality effort against the Diamondbacks. Luis Gonzalez is out over his skis a bit, but so long as he's leading off against right-handers, the Giants fly chaser is a free square for DFS cash games.

Earlier, I cited my daily projections. I'm not tracking, but Byron Buxton has probably topped the batter's list more than half the time. That's just goofy. It also demonstrates just how productive he can be when healthy. Last night, he clocked his 18th long ball, bringing his line to 300/.373/.700 since May 28, albeit with nary a stolen base attempt.

See you Thursday!