This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
NCAA Super Regionals Schedule, Odds, And Best Bets
I've been writing for you guys all year on College Baseball, consistently referring to it as the best sport out there. And a huge reason is because how electric the postseason is. We saw that on display this past weekend.
Six of the 16 host seeds got clipped in their own region. Six three/four seeds advanced to the Super Regionals. Just shows on any given weekend, anybody can beat anybody.
Now this round in my opinion is the best to bet because unlike the regionals and the College World Series (except for the finals), the Super Regionals mimic what we see in a regular season weekend series. Best of three format, no playing a fourth or fifth game, and not playing multiple teams in one round. It takes a lot of the starting pitching guesses out of the equation, which is huge.
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NCAA Super Regionals Schedule
Friday, June 7
- Florida State (-350) vs. UConn, Noon ET
- Tennessee (-800) vs. Evansville, 3:00 PM ET
- North Carolina (-275) vs. West Virginia, 6:00 PM ET
- Virginia (-350) vs. Kansas State, 7:00 PM ET
Saturday, June 8
- Tennessee vs. Evansville, 11 AM ET
- Florida State vs. UConn, 11 AM ET
- Georgia (-155) vs. NC State, Noon ET
- Texas A&M (-375) vs. Oregon, 2:00 PM ET
- Clemson (-180) vs. Florida, 2:00 PM ET
- Virginia vs. Kansas State, 3:00 PM ET
- Kentucky (-130) vs Oregon State, 6:00 PM ET
- North Carolina vs. West Virginia, 8:00 PM ET
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NCAA Super Regionals Picks Today
Let's take a look at one of the series bets.
Oregon State Beavers (+110) @ Kentucky Wildcats (-140)
In terms of the series, this is likely one of the best we have for this round. The 45-14 Beavers will travel to the 43-14 Wildcats. It's a series I fully expect to go three games in this matchup of balanced rosters. The winner will ultimately go on to face the winner of Georgia-NC State in the first game of the College World Series next week.
When you look at the Beavs, you'll see a lineup 1-9 that is capable of doing serious damage. Their 118 tanks is good for eighth best in the country with four guys in double figures. The strong .304 batting average is 33rd. Led by one of the top '24 draft prospects, Travis Bazzana, this offense plated 516 runs so far (13th best). A big reason why the numbers aren't even better is because some of their key guys like Brady Kaspar, Trent Caraway, and Micah McDowell all missed time this season, and their lineup has hardly been fully healthy. Now, they have all their horses back fresh off a 26-run (in three games) regional.
Of course, the team's next level factor is Bazzana, one of the Golden Spikes finalists. The saucy Aussie 2B has cracked 28 taters, 16 doubles, and four triples to go along with that pristine .415 batting average. When he's locked in, Oregon State has a great chance of winning. When he's not it's more like 50/50. For the Beavers to win this series, Bazzana has to play like he wants to be the number-one pick. Without a doubt, he's the best player on the field in this showdown.
Pitching-wise, the arms have come on strong for Oregon State. Their ace, Arizona transfer Aiden May, has been dynamite even with missing a month earlier in the year. His 2.88 ERA and 79 K/22 BB ratio in 68.2 IP has allowed his team a great chance to win any time he takes the mound. The big relief has come in the form of their Saturday guy, junior Jacob Kmatz. His 3.29 ERA has given this team two capable and reliable starters, which is a huge weapon for teams trying to make a run. Kmatz is also coming off back to back quality starts against Arizona and UC Irvine where he allowed just two runs over 13 combined innings. Kmatz has been in this situation before. Back in 2022, as a freshman, his team was hosting a Super Regional against Auburn, and eventually lost. He never saw any action that weekend as the fourth starter, but did get touched against Vandy in the regional (3.1 innings, 6 hits, 4 earned). And after losing to LSU in the regionals last year where he got bombed, you know Kmatz is ready to right a couple wrongs. It also doesn't hurt that they have one of the top closers in Bridger Holmes either (1.97 ERA, 13 saves).
Kentucky has been doubted by a lot of people, including myself, all year. They kept winning though. In their second straight Super Regional appearance, they are looking to right some wrongs as well. The best way to put this team is like the college version of the Tampa Bay Rays. They are well-coached and do a lot of the little things right despite having a ton of star power.
As a team it's nothing sexy. 83 homers and a .289 batting average. Their strength is the chaos on the base paths with 113 steals out of 143 tries (16th most steals). While it's highly unlikely the Cats have a first-rounder on this roster, there are a couple of key producers.
It all starts with Ryan Waldschmidt, the leader in average (.359), stolen bases (24), and OPS (1.139). His 14 bombs are second on the roster. Ryan Nicholson leads the team with 20 homers. The two Ryans are the only two in double-figure Jimmy Jacks. A couple other tone setters are Nick Lopez (.356 average) and Emilien Pitre (.303 average and 24 steals). It's a lineup that understands the role.
On the mound, they have their set weekend rotation with little deviations. Trey Pooser is the Friday guy and he's been consistent. His 3.77 ERA will back that up. Dom Niman commands the Saturday role (6.24 ERA). And arguably the most talented arm is on Sunday in Mason Moore (5.02 ERA). Moore has been incredibly hit or miss this season. He's allowed four-plus runs in less than six innings six times. And had a quality start (at least 6 IP with 3 ER or less) five times. None of these dudes average a strikeout per inning or better. It's a staff that a lineup like Oregon State is capable of getting after.
I've been riding Oregon State since the preseason. The truth is they were very hit or miss this year. Largely because of key absences. Over the last couple weeks, we have finally seen the team that looked like the one in the first month. The Beavers have come close recently, especially with that loaded '22 roster that included Cooper Hjerpe and Jacob Melton. Despite how resilient Kentucky has been, I need to stick to my guns with the Beavers. They are the more talented team, and I believe it's their turn. You're getting a good number for the series. And I also think backing them game one in the +100 territory is a key to this handicap.
Pick: Oregon State +110
Check out the rest of them from my podcast Breaking Bet.
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Now we get to one of my most exciting Game 1 matchups.
Evansville Purple Aces (+480) @ Tennessee Volunteers (-800)
Let's give it up for Evansville one time after Making their first Super Regional in program history by taking down East Carolina twice in their own building. Now they get a completely different level test in having to face the best team in the country on their turf. We saw the four-seeded Oral Roberts Golden Eagles make the Omaha run last year, but can Evansville replicate that?
I won't lie. Winning the series is going to be a taller than tall task for the Purple Aces. It's just the reality of the situation. The Vols got an incredibly favorable regional draw, and when they thought they would be seeing ECU or a Chase Burns led Wake Forest team in a revenge spot, they must have been thrilled to be getting Evansville. Of course, this is the highest variance sport out there, so anything can happen. That's something we have definitely learned.
How Evansville can steal game one is completely hinged on one guy. The Aces freshman ace, Kenton Deverman. If you haven't watched this dude, please get around to it. This kid has been dealing this year, and he's red hot. Six quality starts in his last seven outings. A few blow ups have ballooned his ERA to 3.81.
Deverman is not a big strikeout guy with just 81 K's in 106.1 IP, but limits free passes (20). As a pitch to contact guy, it's allowed the lefty to notch at least six innings in 13 of his 17 starts. The one real bugaboo has been the 12 homers allowed, and going against the Vols lineup who leads the nation with 159 of them, it'll be a huge focus. The 12 home runs is a tad misleading as four of them came in one start. But playing in a launch pad like Lindsey Nelson Stadium means he needs to be extra sharp. So you're probably asking what's so special about a lefty freshman that doesn't throw that hard or strike out a lot of hitters and is susceptible to the long ball. One trend I have paid attention to - and been burned by - this year has been the Vols lineup against LHP.
You'll find that this offense is actually hitting 13 points higher against lefties (.327) than righties with the OPS being just 10 points lower (1.033). On paper, it doesn't make sense, right? Well, if you dig a little deeper, they've actually had a fair amount of struggles against quality lefty starters this season. Take a look against some they faced this season.
Greg Farone (Alabama) - 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K's - Vols lost
Liam Doyle (Ole Miss) - 6 IP, 3 ER, 1 BB, 10 K's - Vols lost
Charlie Goldstein (UGA) - 6 IP, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K's - Vols lost
Garrett Gainey (South Carolina) - 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 0 BB, 5 K's - Vols won
Carson Meyers in relief (Auburn) - 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K's - Vols lost
Carter Holton (Vandy) - 5 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K's - Vols won
JD Thompson (Vandy) - 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9 K's - Vols lost
Even in that Gainey start, it's misleading because he was dominating through five innings. The only two good lefties that they really roughed up were Gage Jump who was struggling mightily up to that point, and Jac Caglianone who has been rough as a starter this season. The common theme for these guys was the limited walks. But if Deverman can keep dealing the way he's been then Evansville has a real path to victory.
Offensively, the Aces can swing it. They're hitting .301 as a team with 92 jacks. While there are a lot of contributors in this lineup, it all starts with the big dog, Kip Fougerousse. Kip is batting .350 with 21 home runs this year. In the regional round, they managed 33 runs in the four games. I actually had a chance to watch them early this year when they visited Mississippi State for a weekend, and I was fairly impressed by their talent. They'll likely see the Vols' Friday night combo of Chris Stamos and Aj Causey. Stamos is the lefty opener that throws two or three solid innings. Then Causey is the guy that has the funky right handed delivery to come in for five or six innings. It's been a formula this pitching has most of the year in game ones likely because hitters see the exact opposite. While it's been successful, it's not an unwinnable matchup.
I've been talking about Evansville all week to win this game. Nobody is giving them a chance. And I get it. It's likely the Vols steamroll them in a sweep, but what if they don't?
Ultimately, I think Tennessee wins the series, but game one is where I pick Evansville for a huge plus-money banger. I can live with losing this spot because I know there's a high probability, but I am compelled to take it because if the Aces win this game and I didn't play it/give it out, I would be kicking myself for the rest of the weekend. I'm riding with the Purple Aces here, FULL UNIT PLAY. Just like my man Scotty P, NO REGRETS.
Also the run line is going to be wild, and you're probably getting the dog with at least four or five runs, so when that comes out, I'm taking that too!
Pick: Evansville ML +480
