This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets: Free MLB Picks for Sunday, Aug. 13
Minnesota Twins at 
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies were defeated 8-1 in Game 2 of their three-game inter-league series against the Minnesota Twins. This will be the rubber game since the Phillies hammered the Twins on Friday by a final score of 13-2. Over the past three seasons, the Phillies are 11-4 at home (averaging a -133 wager) when coming off a game in which they scored exactly one run in a home loss. This season, they're 4-0 in such games.
A Money-Machine Situational Betting System
Betting on home teams that have played 10 consecutive games without committing more than one error in any of them who are facing a foe that hit four or more home runs in their previous game has earned an outstanding 97-50 record (66 percent) over the past five seasons, averaging a –101 wager and earning a 23 percent ROI.
Situational Trends and Angles
The Phillies are 12-6 in home games, averaging a –120 wager, when facing a foe that hit four or more home runs in their previous game. The Twins are 7-12, averaging a 111-dog bet, in road games after hitting 4 or more home runs in their previous game. Noteworthy is that the Phillies are 6-1 averaging a –132 wager and earning a 47 percent ROI in games following one in which both Kyle Schwarber and Bryson Stott failed to record a hit this season.
The Phillies are playing their final home game of a 10-game stretch. They are 6-3 this season and 24-13 across the past three seasons when playing their final home game of a homestand .
Left-handed Ranger Suarez will have the ball for the Phillies on Sunday afternoon. He's making his 17th start and has posted a decent 3.96 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP, with the team going 9-7 in his starts. He's shown a much higher performance level in his last two starts, allowing two earned runs in a 5-4 team loss to the Washington Nationals and allowing just one earned run in a 3-1 win on the road over the division rival Miami Marlins.
Player Prop Thoughts, Situations, and Opportunities
In yesterday's 8-1 loss, the Phillies Bryson Stott had no hits. He is batting .299, ranking fifth-best in the NL this season, and leads the Majors with 70 hits with two strikes in the count. He has had 169 at-bats with runners on base and is batting a terrific .320 this season in those situations. Since May 10, he has gone back-to-back-to-back games without a hit just one and only three back-to-back hitless games. In the 18 games following a hitless performance, he's recorded 23 hits.
Bet Bryson Stott to get a hit –250 at PointsBet
Bet Bryson Stott to get a double +425 at Bet365
The Phillies' Kyle Schwarber may be hitting only .184 this season, but he has a much more meaningful .326 on-base-percentage. He ranks second with 87 walks, trailing only Juan Soto, who has 99 free passes. Amazingly, Schwarber has eight more walks than hits (79).
Schwarber has had 24 games in which he had no hits and no walks. He had one stretch of three consecutive games in which he never got a hit or walk back in May, but since has been on base at least once following a hitless and walkless game.
Bet Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +340 at FanDuel
MLB Best Bets Recap
- Bryson Stott to get a hit (–250 at PointsBet)
- Bryson Stott to get a double (+425 at Bet365)
- Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +340 at FanDuel
