MLB Picks: Peter Schoenke's 2024 MLB Win Totals To Target

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

 MLB Predictions: Peter Schoenke's MLB Win Totals 2024

Before each baseball season the last 23 years I've written a story at RotoWire with my best bets for the season-long win totals. I'm a big fan of the season win total bets ever since I started making them in person in Las Vegas back in the late 1990s. I've used several concepts of sabrermetrical analysis to try to find teams that appeared to be good historical bets.

Last year was my worst year writing the column. I picked the under on the Orioles and Diamondbacks only to see those bets fail spectacularly. The Orioles won over 100 games. I made a large bet they'd win less than 76.5. I bet Arizona would win fewer than 75.5 games. Instead, they made it to the World Series. So, I debated ending this column.

My track record lately has waned. And the early South Korea start didn't fit with my schedule. But after 23 years, I can't give up. And looking back at last year, I think my analysis on both teams still had merit. So while this is late, here is my take on the 2024 season from a wagering perspective.

Despite my recent struggles, I still have a decent track record, winning 59 of 110 (with one push) bets for a 53.6 percent win rate. My best bet each season is 19-17 (I had multiple biggest bets some years). I'm a little better on bets of $100 or more (I vary my bet size to emphasize how strongly I feel about the pick) where I'm 14-12 (53.8 percent). I'm most impressive when looking at the total amount bet, where I've been correct 56.1 percent of the time ($3,550 in winning bets, $2,775 in losers - not factoring in the vig*).

For this exercise, I'm using MLB odds from Fanduel Sportsbook on March 26.

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Here's my take on each team with more analysis below on those I selected as my "bets."

When I look at an upcoming baseball season, there are eight methods I use to judge which teams might be a good bet: Three are statistical, four are observations I've had watching the bookies set season-long lines for MLB and other sports and lately I've thrown in a wild-card pick with no particular theoretical basis. Here's the breakdown on these theories and the teams I decided to actually wager on.

The Johnson Effect

The Johnson Effect argues that a team that scores more runs or allows fewer runs than most statistical formulas would suggest, is bound to regress the next season. For example, if one team scores more runs than sabermetric formulas such as Runs Created or OPS might suggest, then it will score less the next season. 

The theory works based on the fact that sometimes a team has more success than it should just based on pure luck. A bad bounce here, a fluke play here  - they can add up in one season and make a team look more powerful than it should be.

My favorite type of statistic for this analysis is a tool called the Pythagorean Theory. You probably learned the Pythagorean theory in trigonometry, but in baseball, it means that the ratio of a team's wins and losses will be similar to the relationship between the square of its runs scored and the square of its runs allowed. 

If the runs a team scores and gives up in any given season don't translate into the expected win total from the Pythagorean Theory, that means something odd took place that should turn around next season.

Using the Johnson Effect and applying the Pythagorean Theory, who looks like they'll rebound in 2024? Here are the top teams that should have had more or less wins based on their 2023 runs allowed/created than they actually tallied:

I usually like to look for teams that have a differential of ten or more games. The Padres last year had a fluky season where they played worse than most of their leading indicators in part due to an unlucky bullpen (7th worst save percentage, but 11th in ERA). They may be worthy of a bet, but losing Juan Soto is a big loss. The sportsbooks have them improving 1.5 games. I'll pass.

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The Plexiglass Principle

This theory says that any team that improves dramatically in one season is likely to decline the next season.

What teams made such dramatic moves from 2022 to 2023?

Since 1970, teams that have improved by 19 or more games declined by 7.35 wins the following season.  The Reds have young exciting talent but suffered a number of injuries this spring. The sportsbooks have them about even (Fanduel's Mar. 27 line has them at 81.5 wins). I'd expect at least some decline. I'll bet $50 that the Reds don't win 81.5 games. 

The Rangers, of course, won the World Series. Still, they only won 90 games. The Rangers also suffered some significant pitching losses for at least half a season. Jordan Montgomery left in free agency. Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom won't be ready for months – if at all. The team has some young talent in Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter which could offset those losses. Still, there's probably a World Series hangover. I'll bet $25 that the Rangers don't win 88.5 games.

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The Reverse Plexiglas Principle

When a team has consistently been a winner and then experiences a sudden drop-off, there is a strong likelihood that its win total will rebound. Or at least that's my theory.

Here are the teams that declined the most in 2023:

The Cardinals are the prime candidate of this group since the team's decline was unexpected and St. Louis spent a lot of money to give a floor to the rotation (Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn). However, the sportsbooks have priced in a 13.5-game improvement. That's too rich for my tastes.

The Bottom Feeder Bet

Which teams are projected to have the lowest win totals?

The theory here is that sportsbooks really need to set the totals low to entice bets on unexciting teams. However, in the past 21 years, teams that the sportsbooks peg to win less than 64 games cover 67% of the time (8 of 12). It's a small sample but makes some sense. 

Even so, it's just hard to make a case for either Colorado or Oakland. Both teams are just lost with few top prospects and no real plan (and Oakland even for a stadium). The White Sox may be the worst team in the league. Only the Nationals can I see improving, but their rotation may be the worst in the majors. I'll reluctantly pass. 

The Book's Biggest Movers

The next thing I look at is what teams the bookies think will have the biggest improvement or decline this season.

The Royals seem like an odd choice for the most improved team. Sure, Kansas City signed Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo to shore up the rotation. Cole Ragans could turn into an ace if he can stay healthy. Bobby Witt was signed to a mega extension, but he was already on the team last year. None of those moves say to me they're the most improved team in baseball. I'll bet $100 the Royals don't win 73.5 games.

The Rays amazingly slightly underperformed last season, at least to their 100 Pythagorean wins, while still becoming a playoff team. They have the usual losses (Tyler Glasnow to a trade, Wander Franco to off-field issues the biggest from start of last season) but have top prospects (Junior Caminero) and find pitchers to improve from other team's underperformers (Aaron Civale and Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot). A bet on the Rays over just seems worthwhile as the sportsbooks  (and everyone) always underestimates them. I'll bet $100 the Rays win more than 84.5 games.

The Book's Non Movers

What teams do the sportsbooks see standings still?

The first thing that stands out is how many teams the sportsbooks will largely be unchanged from last season. The sportsbooks expect 19 teams to finish within 3.5 games of their 2023 win total. Compare that to 16 teams in 2023, 9 teams in 2022 and 7 teams in 2021 that the sportsbooks expected to be within 3.5 games of the prior year.

The two that stand out among this group are the Cubs and Red Sox. The Cubs have been at least signing free agents (Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga), paid big bucks to bring in perhaps the best manager in baseball (Craig Counsell) and are in a weak division. It seems like they'd be better. Meanwhile the Red Sox appear to be going the other direction with Lucas Giolito as their only big move of note – and he's out for the season after Tommy John surgery. I'll take $25 on the Cubs to win more than 83.5 games, and I'll take $25 for the Red Sox to win less than 77.5 games.

Wild Card

I've occasionally chosen a bet for this article that doesn't fit any statistical theory but rather is one trend I've followed. This year that theory would be on principle you should take the under on any team to win 100 games. But then the Dodgers have won over 100 in five of the last six full seasons. So maybe I'll pass.

MLB Win Total Best Bets for 2024 Recap

*One note: My bets/track record doesn't account for the variations in extra juice you need to pay. Most lines are -110, meaning the sportsbook takes about five percent on each bet. The "vig" tends to be higher on these bets than for single games. Sometimes the vig can vary widely, such as when the 2016 Rangers' under of 83.5 wins was at -140 (the under was +110). It's another method for the bookmakers to alter how the money is coming in on each side so it gets to their comfort level. Or it's a way to change the odds without moving the win total.

If you are making a lot of bets, this is a serious factor in the math. But I don't bother to take that into account because I'm more focused on the overall wins number for a team perspective. Plus, I forgot to keep track of the vig in the early years.

I vary the dollar amounts below as a way to show how confident I am in the bet (the $300 bet on the 2004 Royals is my all-time high), so there are some holes in the math if you added in all the varying vigs.

And why should you care what I think? I've made money 12 of the last 22 years (with one push). Here's the breakdown: