It's been an unusually drab start to May in much of the country. In addition to not-exactly-springtime temperatures, games are getting moved, or postponed, by the weather. Enough with the April showers! Look at the calendar, Mother Nature! There are nine games on the slate starting at 6:40 p.m. EDT or later Wednesday. Fingers crossed they all go off without a hitch (even if the fans might have to wear more layers than expected). Here are my MLB DFS lineup recommendations.
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Pitching
Will Warren, NYY vs. TEX ($10,700): Last year Warren struggled on the road, but he had a 3.50 ERA. This year he just straight-up has a 2.39 ERA, but that includes a 2.30 ERA at home. While a couple of the struggling offenses have picked it up a bit, the Rangers have not, and they seem primed to threaten to finish in the bottom five in runs scored.
Jeffrey Springs, ATH at PHI ($9,400): Springs, like essentially every Athletics pitcher, really likes being away from that stadium in Sacramento. He had a 3.45 ERA on the road last season, and his road ERA this year is 2.95. The Phillies are still in the bottom five in runs scored, and Springs is a lefty so he can keep their best two hitters in check.
Joey Cantillo, CLE at KAN ($8,600): Prior to having to pitch at the Athletics' bandbox of a ballpark in his last outing, Cantillo had a 2.97 ERA. He's already faced the Royals once, pitching 5.2 innings and allowing a single earned run. The Royals are within the narrow bandwidth of teams that goes from the bottom 10 in runs scored to being just above average in runs scored, but they are not imposing either way.
Top Targets
The Cubs' lefties have struggled, but the switch-hitting Ian Happ ($3,700) has not. He has a .372 OBP with eight homers and six doubles. Since 2024 Happ has an .811 OPS versus righties, but he also has an .842 OPS at home. Brady Singer has a 5.57 ERA, and the fact lefties have hit .366 against him has obviously played a role in that.
Last year, Cody Bellinger ($3,600) hit .272 with 59 extra-base hits and 13 stolen bases. He really enjoyed the move to the Yankees, as he had a .909 OPS at home. This season Bellinger is off to an even better start, as he's hit .283 with 17 extra-base hits and four swiped bags. Nathan Eovaldi has a 4.76 ERA, and given his track record you might think he's been unlucky. Instead, in actuality he has a 5.04 FIP.
Bargain Bats
Though Xavier Edwards ($3,200) has no power, he's a career .302 hitter who has stolen over 25 bases in each of the last two seasons. Since 2024 he has a .387 OBP versus right-handed pitchers, and he's slugged .422 against him. That qualifies as a power surge for this particular shortstop. Reality checked Brandon Young hard. Last season with the Orioles he had a 6.24 ERA in 12 starts. He pitched five shutout innings in his first start this year, and he even "only" allowed three runs in 5.2 innings in his second start. Then in his third start he allowed 10 runs (seven earned) in 4.0 innings against the Astros.
Welcome back to relevance, Nathaniel Lowe ($2,800). That sounds harsh, I grant you, but he had a .689 OPS as a first baseman last year. He's seemingly only around to face right-handed pitchers now, but that platoon deployment has allowed him to slash .275/.351/.609 with six home runs for the Reds. Lefties hit .292 against Colin Rea last year, and this year they've hit .305, so this matchup is up Lowe's alley.
Stacks to Consider
Guardians at Royals (Cole Ragans): Jose Ramirez ($3,800), Angel Martinez ($3,000), Brayan Rocchio ($2,800)
Is something amiss with Ragans? Last year he had a 4.67 ERA in 13 starts, but his 2.50 FIP indicated he was fairly unlucky. Well, this year he has a 5.29 ERA, but a 6.57 FIP. His fastball is slower, his swinging strike rate is down, and both his walks and homers are way up. I'm willing to see what the Guardians might be able to do against him, and I have three guys who hit right handed for a stack against a southpaw.
Ramirez is one of the two switch hitters in this stack. This year his numbers are down, but that is exclusively against righties. Since 2024 he's slugged .606 against lefties. Also, in a down year he's still managed to hit six homers and steal 13 bases while hitting .212. Martinez is also a switch hitter, and his overall numbers are also better against lefties. He doesn't walk at all, but this year he's hit .271 with five home runs and five swiped bags. Since Rocchio is a shortstop, his lack of power doesn't mean a ton. He's hit .261 with three home runs and three stolen bases this year, and last season he had two triples as well.
Twins at Nationals (Miles Mikolas): Byron Buxton ($3,700), Trevor Larnach ($2,900), Kody Clemens ($2,800)
The Nationals seem to be doing something that somehow the Cardinals never did: run out of patience with Mikolas. The right-hander made 98 starts over the last three seasons in St. Louis with a 4.98 ERA! Four of Mikolas' seven appearances this year have been in bulk relief, but he's still been horrendous regardless of how he's been deployed. He has an 8.23 ERA with an 1.73 K/BB ratio and 2.63 HR/9 rate. Since 2024, both lefties and righties have hit .281 against Mikolas, but since he is right-handed I have two lefties in this stack.
Buxton has incredible power and I just wish he could stay healthy. He's slugged .533 over the last eight seasons and this year he already has 11 home runs to go with five doubles. Larnach has been the opposite of Buxton, in that he only has one homer but he has a .418 OBP. Over the last three seasons he's hit .263 against righties with a .435 slugging percentage. Last year Clemens had 19 homers and four triples in 119 games. This season he has three home runs in 25 games, but also four stolen bases. He can't hit lefties at all, and he never walks, but Clemens has slugged .470 against right-handed pitchers since 2024.
