This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Our Saturday main slate at FanDuel is an unusually large one, with 13 games starting at 7:05 p.m. EDT or later. Despite the volume of games, we have only two pitchers priced in the $10,000 tier and only three more in the 9k range. As such, it should come as no surprise we have lots of runs expected, with only one game sitting with the slate-low run total of eight.
All 26 teams have listed starters, so we're not shortened at all in our choices. Weather looks sketchy for Nationals at Mets, and a little less so for Yankees at Orioles. The top three arms on this slate are the clear best choices, so feel free to deploy James Paxton against a strikeout-heavy Giants offense, while Bailey Ober gets the always targetable Royals. But for a breakdown standpoint, I simply can't highlight all the top arms. Similarly, it was difficult to find viable pitching options beneath those, making almost all offenses decent choices. There will be omissions that shouldn't be forgotten when building lineups.
Pitching
Aaron Nola, PHI at PIT ($9,900): Nola is starting to come around, managing three quality starts in his last four outings while fanning 31 across 27.2 innings. The Pirates don't fan a ton at just 23.6 percent, but have a well below average 86 wRC+ while ranking 26th offensively with a .300 wOBA off of righties. Teammate Zack Wheeler dominated this lineup Friday en route to 60 FDP, and there's no reason Nola can't follow suit, and he only needs around 30 FDP to give us a 3x floor. He's a nice stable play with potential for far more.
Jordan Lyles, KC vs. MIN ($7,300): Lyles isn't going to offer major upside, but there's a case to be made he can limit damage and provide a serviceable fantasy scoring outing. Minnesota has big swing-and-miss tendencies, fanning 27.1 percent of the time off righties. He's fared well against this lineup overall, allowing a .258 average (25-for-97) with just a .799 OPS, though he's fanning Twins at just an 18.2 percent rate. Lyles has fared slightly better at home as well. It's not ideal, but no paydown option is ideal on this slate, and it's a play against the Twins more than it is a play on the pitcher.
Brandon Pfaadt, ARI vs. SEA ($6,200): If you're not paying up for the top three arms Saturday, I think the case is easy to simply punt pitching, hope for double-digit points from your paydown, and load up offensively. Pfaadt can't be priced much lower, and he finally showed promise in his last start, a tough spot in Cincinnati. Seattle strikes out 26.0 percent of the time against righties. Pair that with the fact they've been a targetable offense all season and there's potential for Pfaadt to build off his last outing and provide more than enough return to justify this low price.
Top Targets
Cleveland's Logan Allen doesn't have hugely targetable splits, and he's been better on the road, so I don't want to go too heavily on White Sox bats. Yet they have a plethora of options that fare well off lefties. Luis Robert ($4,000) is the leader of that pack, sporting a .436 wOBA, 183 wRC+ with just a 13.7 percent soft contact rate. He's also 4-for-6 off Allen.
Dodger bats are going to be the most obviously targetable on this slate against Luke Weaver, who is allowing a .410 wOBA and .978 OPS to lefties, and .388/.907 to righties on the road. The problem is Los Angeles has four options priced at at least $4,000, making stacking challenging. As such, I'll build around Freddie Freeman ($4,500) and move on. Freeman has hit safely in seven straight and nine of 10, homering four times, and has a team-best .407 wOBA and 160 wRC+ off righties.
There's enough BvP history to back Pete Alonso ($3,900) Saturday. He's 14-for-40 (.350) with five homers and a 1.244 OPS off Patrick Corbin. If that's not enough, he also has a pair of two-homer, five-RBI performances in his last four games.
Bargain Bats
Until his price point changes, Sal Frelick ($2,900) is going to be a mainstay in my columns here and my lineups. He's scored in every game since his promotion, has moved into a middle of the order lineup spot and has failed to return better than 3x this price just once in six outings.
Jake Burger ($3,100) is in the midst of a power surge, homering four times in his last three games. His .395 wOBA, 155 wRC+ and .390 ISO off lefties are borderline elite, offering a potential cheap source of big production.
We saw 13 runs scored in Coors Field on Friday, and we have a 12.5 run total Saturday, so we assume we want parts of both of these bad offenses. A's starter Paul Blackburn has peculiar splits, being tougher on lefties on the road than at home, but let's throw that out the window given the ballpark in play. Michael Toglia ($2,800) is no certainty to start, but he's shown well when given the opportunity, boasting a .420 wOBA and 152 wRC+ in 34 plate appearances off righties. He's collected a hit and RBI in four straight. On the other side, Rockies starter Chris Flexen is allowing a .411 wOBA and .955 OPS to righties overall. Zack Gelof ($3,400) isn't priced cheaply but sports a .410 wOBA and 171 wRC+ off righties. He homered Friday, as did Ramon Laureano ($3,100), who offers a slightly cheaper option in a run-producing lineup spot. Neither side is super targetable in their own right, but this is a game where shares are needed, so perhaps build your lineup first, and round it out here based on positional needs.
Stacks to Consider
Cubs vs. Adam Wainwright: Cody Bellinger ($4,000), Ian Happ ($3,100), Mike Tauchman ($3,100)
Wainwright allowed only two runs across five innings in his last start, but that was his best showing in nine outings, so we shouldn't have much concern going all-in here. Further, the Cubs lineup overall is hitting .310 off him, giving us confidence throughout the lineup. It's lefties that have plagued Wainwright all year, as he's allowing a .466 wOBA and 1.120 OPS against them. Conveniently, the Cubs figure to have this suggested trio hitting atop their order, giving multiple shots at Wainwright before he's pulled. Happ has crushed Wainwright throughout their duels, going 13-for-34 (.382) with six homers and three doubles, leading to a 1.417 OPS. Bellinger has hit in 10 of 11 and Tauchman 11 of 14.
Nationals vs. Carlos Carrasco: Jeimer Candelario ($3,000), CJ Abrams ($2,900), Joey Meneses ($2,700)
We've got the potential for some value here with Carrasco being the real target. He's allowed nine runs and 16 hits across his last seven innings and has a 7.31 ERA and 6.92 FIP at home, allowing a .373 wOBA and .846 OPS to lefties, and .406/.968 to righties, seemingly opening up the entire (weak) Nationals lineup. This stack gives us three of the Nats' likely top four hitters, with Meneses 92 wRC+ being the only one that's below average. It's not the perfect set up, but given the price points, we don't need much more than a hit and RBI/run scored from each to provide a decent return. Riley Adams ($2,700) has BvP success (4-for-7, two HRs), if he finds his way into the lineup.
