This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Thursday was a slim day on the MLB schedule, but Friday starts the weekend series, and you know the weekends in MLB don't mess around. Fourteen games are taking place starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later, which means your DFS options have multiplied since Thursday. With more choices to sift through, hopefully my recommendations can help you set a successful lineup.
Pitching
Logan Webb, SF vs. BOS ($10,200): Webb is a night-and-day pitcher when it comes to being at home versus being on the road. Since 2021, he has a 3.82 ERA away from San Francisco but a 2.38 ERA at his home ballpark. This year his home ERA is down to 2.02. Webb has also held lefties to a .229 average this season, and three of Boston's top four hitters bat from that side.
Zack Wheeler, PHI at PIT ($9,800): The difference between last season for Wheeler, when he was in the Cy Young mix, and this season, where he feels like he has disappointed a smidge? Nothing but luck. Last year he had a 2.82 ERA with a 2.88 FIP. This year he has a 3.88 ERA… with a 2.87 FIP. His 0.76 homers per nine innings is the exact same number as last season. Basically, Wheeler is still a great pitcher, and the Pirates are still a bad offense. They currently rank 27th in runs scored.
Sonny Gray, MIN at KC ($9,300): The Tigers are one of the two teams not on this slate thanks to a 6:40 p.m. ET start, and the Athletics are at Coors Field, leaving the Royals as the one team to obviously target. The three teams mentioned here have separated themselves as the clear offensive dregs of MLB. Gray is no slouch, though. He has a 3.15 ERA, and that comes with a 2.89 FIP that indicates his strong numbers could be even better with a smidge more luck.
Top Targets
At this point, we can just go ahead and hand Corbin Carroll ($6,000) his NL Rookie of the Year award. He's slashed .288/.365/.556 with 21 homers and 30 stolen bases. That's bolstered by an 1.003 OPS versus righties. Logan Gilbert has slid into mediocrity in 2022, as the righty has a 3.88 ERA and 3.66 FIP. Those aren't bad numbers, but if it's not an ace on the mound, Carroll is always a top target versus righties.
It's not peak Christian Yelich ($5,400), as peak Yelich had 44 homers and 30 stolen bases once upon a time, but a .290 average with 15 homers and 22 stolen bases is effectively "MVP Yelich Lite," and that's not too shabby. He can't hit lefties at all at this point, but he has a .935 OPS versus right-handers. Atlanta, scrounging for a pitcher to fill out the rotation, signed Yonny Chirinos off waivers. He has a career 4.24 FIP, even though half his outings have come in relief.
Bargain Bats
He was an afterthought with Cleveland, but Nolan Jones ($4,300) got called up by the Rockies after mashing in Triple-A, and thanks to injuries and performance, he's seeing regular playing time in the outfield. Jones has slashed .269/.349/.494 with nine homers and six stolen bases. Notably, the southpaw has an .801 OPS versus his fellow lefties. Why is that key? JP Sears has a 5.20 FIP and has allowed 1.93 home runs per nine innings this season, and he's also allowed left-handers to hit .291 against him for his career.
Well, the Athletics are at Coors, so this is the rare chance to potentially get some upside from one of their hitters. Lacking options, Oakland has installed 22-year-old rookie Jordan Diaz ($3,100) at third base. Get him away from the Athletics' ballpark, and he's hit .270 and slugged .524. Kyle Freeland, back from the IL, has a 5.16 ERA at Coors Field since 2021. For perhaps the only weekend all season, Diaz is going to be interesting.
Top Targets
Dodgers vs. Reds (Brandon Williamson): Mookie Betts ($6,300), Will Smith ($5,400), J.D. Martinez ($5,200)
When a lefty is on the mound against the Dodgers, the trio to stack is effectively self evident at this point. Williamson was bad at Triple-A but still got called up because the Reds were desperate for options. There's a reason they are rumored to be targeting a pitcher in a trade. Through 12 MLB starts he has a 5.15 FIP and he's walked 9.4 percent of the batters he's faced. Guys get on base, and then Williamson allows 1.53 home runs per nine innings. That plays into the hands of this trio.
Betts is the perfect player to target Williamson's weaknesses. He has a .380 OBP leading off, but he also has 27 homers. Plus, since 2021 he has a .965 OPS against southpaws. Smith is a catcher with a .286/.392/.486 slash line. This year he has a .949 OPS at home as well. Martinez's power is back in a big way with the Dodgers. He's slugged .567 with 25 home runs in 82 games. His big bat has also been hot, as he has an 1.039 OPS over the last three weeks.
Rays at Astros (Cristian Javier): Josh Lowe ($4,500), Luke Raley ($4,200), Brandon Lowe ($4,100)
From a three-righty stack to a three-lefty stack, a struggling Javier is primed to target. Over his last five starts, he has a 9.70 ERA. Javier has actually been strong against righties, holding them to an .183 average. However, lefties have hit him to the tune of a .280 average. So yeah, three left-handers it is.
Josh, of the Tampa Lowes, walks once in a blue moon, but he's hit .272 with 13 homers and 22 stolen bases. He has an .816 OPS versus righties, but also an .878 OPS on the road. Raley has been the best hitter of this trio, slashing .273/.361/.547 with 15 homers and 11 stolen bases. He's mashed righties (.921 OPS), sure, but he also has a .984 OPS in away games. Brandon is not at his 39-homer peak, but he's hit 11 homers — all off righties — in 67 games played. Over the last two weeks, he has a .790 OPS as well.
Phillies at Pirates (Mitch Keller): Bryce Harper ($5,400, Kyle Schwarber ($4,600), Brandon Marsh ($2,700)
These three left-handed hitters have not been at their best, but the same is true of Keller. He has a 4.01 ERA overall, but over his last 11 starts he has a 5.51 ERA. Then, over his last four starts he's posted a 7.04 ERA, with six home runs allowed across 23.0 innings. Lefties have hit .256 against Keller this year, and .287 since 2021, so why not take a shot. It's something of a "buy low" opportunity for at least two of these Philly bats.
Harper's power is way down, a reminder Tommy John has a real impact on hitters, if not the same impact it has on pitchers. However, he's averaged .296 with a .386 OBP. His OBP against righties is .832, but since 2021 that number is 1.005. Schwarber has been moved to DH, which will hopefully boost his bat (and will keep him from hurting the Phillies with his adventurous fielding exploits). He does have 26 homers after hitting 46 last season, and few guys have the homer upside of Schwarber as a lefty. Marsh has slashed .280/.359/.454 with seven homers, six stolen bases, and also six triples. That includes an .856 OPS versus right-handed pitchers.
