This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Wednesday, September 4
- Year-to-Date Record: 147-149-1
- Prior Article: 2-1 ( +1.19 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. When summer temperatures and humidity rise, scoring may see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Get the most competitive and up-to-date MLB odds before placing a wager on the best sports betting sites.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Chicago White Sox 
at Baltimore Orioles 
We got lucky last night with the over 8.5 as the Orioles smoked the White Sox 9-0. The White Sox are going to be the worst team of all time and I have purposely avoided them in this article because it is pretty much chalk to go against them.
The odds on the Moneyline is pretty much impossible to look at now, but laying -2.5 runs might as well be an option with how bad this White Sox offense is.
Once again, the starting pitching matchup is heavily in the favor of the Orioles, with Albert Suarez against Jonathan Cannon. Cannon was pitching okay until four weeks ago. He has had a 7.78 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in that stretch. The scary thing about his last four starts is the lack of control – 6.9 K/9, 5.5 BB/9 and 1.8 HR/9.
MLB Picks for White Sox at Orioles
- Orioles -2.5 for 1 Unit (-111 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Orioles OVER 5.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Houston Astros 
at Cincinnati Reds 
Spencer Arrighetti has become another one of those Astros pitchers who has shaped into a solid starting pitcher. Do not just lean on his season stats: 7-11 record, 4.63 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Look at the following splits:
- April 10-July 2: 6.13 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 80 Strikeouts, 39 Walks
- July 7-August 28: 2.77 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 71 Strikeouts, 18 Walks
He has cut down on the walks and hits, and has been put in a better position to win games lately. Hunter Brown is another pitcher who has seen a similar type of development and has been extremely profitable since June 1st.
Nick Martinez just gives up way too much hard contact, especially against the Astros. He only has 25 strikeouts in 35 innings along with seven home runs allowed in his last seven starts.
I think you can play the Astros on the run line, over team total and/or Arrighetti over his strikeout props.
MLB Picks for Astros at Reds
- Astros -1.5 for 2 Units (+115 FanDuel Sportsbook)
St. Louis Cardinals 
at Milwaukee Brewers 
I am going back to the well with the Brewers at home against a right-handed pitcher, especially since Sonny Gray has struggled in recent starts. Since July 5th, Gray has a 5.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. But his home/road splits are telling with a 6.90 ERA on the road and a whopping 3.3 HR/9. Colin Rea has been up and down in his recent stretch.
The Brewers are 41-26 at home and 64-37 against right-handed pitchers. They are also 14-6 in their last 20, while the Cardinals have nothing to play for. I think there is huge value on the Brewers at close to even money at home, but also on the over at 7.5 or 8.0 runs.
- Brewers ML for 1 Unit (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Orioles -2.5 for 1 Unit (-111 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Orioles OVER 5.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Astros -1.5 for 2 Units (+115 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Brewers ML for 1 Unit (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
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