This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Friday, August 16
- Year-to-Date Record: 136-129-1
- Prior Article: 1-2 (-1.00 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. Summer temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
When placing bets on your favorite best sports betting sites make sure you first check RotoWire's MLB odds page for the most current and competitive odds on the market.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Washington Nationals 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
The first thing I do when looking at an MLB card is find the worst starting pitchers and ways to attack them. Patrick Corbin is the king of this fan club as I have probably gone against him every time I have written this article in the last four years.
Over the last three-and-a-half seasons, Aaron Nola is fifth in WAR (16.8) versus Corbin, who is second to last (Jordan Lyles is last) at 2.8 for starting pitchers with at least 500 innings.
And, oh yeah, the Phillies against left-handed pitching have a 147 wRC+ since July 1st.
When we look at the game, obviously laying -265 only works in a parlay, and laying -1.5 is definitely in play. I want to get exposure to the Phillies' team total, but 3.5 in the F5, even at plus-money, seems a bit steep. The game team total is 5.5 but at just a bit over -100. With the state of the Nationals' bullpen, I would rather get eight innings versus five.
The Phillies average 5.4 runs per game at home and now get to face Corbin. They just need to get to six.
MLB Picks for Nationals at Phillies
- Phillies -1.5 runs for 2 units (-121 BetRivers)
- Phillies OVER 5.5 runs for 1 unit (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Arizona Diamondbacks 
at Tampa Bay Rays 
The Diamondbacks continue to be the hottest team in baseball and the Rays' offense, especially at home, has gone south recently. The Diamondbacks are 9-1, 17-3 and 24-6 in their last 10/20/30 games, while the Rays are 3-7 in their last 10. But the Rays' home offense is so bad right now and Ryne Nelson is a pitcher I have backed since he started turning things around.
Nelson has allowed only two home runs and 11 walks in eight starts since July 2nd. He is limiting power and baserunners, which, against this Rays team is a recipe for a very low-scoring game.
The Rays have scored two runs or fewer in 13 of their last 16 home games while hitting a putrid .207 and just nine homers. They are 14-5-1 to the under in their last 20 home games.
MLB Picks for Diamondbacks at Rays
- Diamondbacks/Rays UNDER 8.0 runs for 2 units (-115 BetMGM)
San Diego Padres 
at Colorado Rockies 
The Padres are on a similar type of run as the Diamondbacks, going 19-3 over their last 22 games. Their offensive numbers are scary (6.0 runs per game), but more importantly, they are not striking out (16.4 percent) and putting the ball in play (.289 batting average). On the flip side, their pitching has a sub 3.00 ERA (2.75) and 1.02 WHIP in that stretch. Their run differential is 6.0-3.1. Laying -1.5 runs in Coors Field with a total of 11.5 is the best way to tackle this one.
Matt Waldron has had some success against the Rockies in Coors going six innings and allowing one earned run on April 24.
MLB Picks for Padres at Rockies
- Padres -1.5 runs for 1 unit (-113 FanDuel Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Phillies -1.5 runs for 2 units (-121 BetRivers)
- Phillies OVER 5.5 runs for 1 unit (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Diamondbacks/Rays UNDER 8.0 runs for 2 units (-115 BetMGM)
- Padres -1.5 runs for 1 unit (-113 FanDuel Sportsbook)
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