Farm Futures: Ranking Dilemmas: Prospects 201-225

The indefinite suspension of MLB, MiLB and fantasy baseball seasons are obviously a minor inconvenience compared to everything else going on in the world. However, in an effort to provide a distraction during this difficult period, I am going to peel back the curtain of my top-400 prospect rankings. This ninth article will cover my updated 201-225 prospects. I will continue this series, working down my top-400 prospect rankings every week throughout this hiatus.

In addition to each player's rank, I have noted where I believe the tiers are in the rankings and where each prospect was ranked on 10/1/19 and 1/1/20 (there are now graphs on each player's page to show how their ranking on the top 400 has changed), to provide a glimpse of how my valuation of these prospects has evolved throughout the offseason and spring training. For the players who saw big jumps from 10/1/19 to 1/1/20, my evaluation of that player changed significantly when I was able to do a deep dive on them while writing their outlook (available at the top right of each player page) for the magazine. Sometimes when I'm writing up a player, I have that ah-ha moment where I realize they need to be bumped quite a bit higher/lower, which is why there is sometimes significant movement when games aren't being played. The tier from the seventh edition that began with Alexfri Planez at No. 162 continues over to this week's list, so there is one big tier from 162-225.

Might Be Too Low

I'm content with where I have them ranked, but these are the players who I'm most worried about being too low on.

Hitter: Brenton Doyle/Richi Gonzalez/Jonatan Clase/Mason Martin

Doyle hits from the right side but has some similarities to Sam Hilliard from a raw tools standpoint. He boasts plus power, plus speed and a plus arm, so he should be able to handle all three outfield spots. The big question is how much contact he will make as he moves up the ladder. A 21-year-old with his tools could put up the most gaudy numbers of all time in the hitter-friendly Pioneer League (which he basically did with a 185 wRC+) and we'd still have to view the production with some pessimism. He will probably be able to keep putting up monster numbers in the hitter-friendly parks in Asheville and Lancaster, so that should at least give him some staying power in this range of the rankings. I'm probably not going to fully buy in prior to Double-A unless he does that damage with a strikeout rate in the 15-20 percent range. There is no denying his tools in Coors Field make for an exciting proposition.

Gonzalez is a late bloomer from the 2019 J-2 signing class. He received just $310K out of the Dominican Republic, as he did not start displaying his current NC-17 tools until after he had agreed to sign with Houston. A 6-foot-3, 185-pound center fielder with extreme athleticism, Gonzalez's tools are reminiscent to those of Kristian Robinson when he first got into pro ball. He projects for at least plus power and should maintain plus speed into his mid-20s. Gonzalez has a double-plus arm, so even he loses a step, he could still provide a ton of defensive value. Reports suggest he impressed with his hit tool in the Dominican instructional league, but given his height, I'm expecting it to be power over hit, at least initially in pro ball. Part of me wants to really plant my flag by putting him up near the top of this tier (which starts with Planez at No. 162), but I think this is still probably 100-plus spots higher than you'll see him on any other set of rankings.

Clase was the second-most exciting Mariner in the Dominican Summer League behind Noelvi Marte. Listed at 5-foot-8, 150 pounds when he signed for $35K in 2018, he has improved drastically from a physical standpoint and as a hitter since signing. The big draw for fantasy will be his 70-grade speed, but his bat also has a chance to move the needle. He logged a 17.8 percent walk rate and 19.6 percent strikeout rate while using the whole field and hitting .300 in his pro debut. Clase may never be a 20-homer guy, but he should develop 15-homer pop and has a chance to be a 30-steal leadoff hitter in time. 

With Martin the flaws are obvious: he strikes out too much and he fits best as a designated hitter (although he might be slightly better defensively at first base than Josh Bell). Those are two of my least favorite flaws a prospect can have. However, he might be able to make it work. Martin hits from the left side, which is a big mark in his favor, and he has at least 70-grade raw power (34.3 Hard% last year, which is elite for Low-A/High-A). While the strikeouts probably aren't ever going away, he has a chance to maintain high walk rates to go with the whiffs, leading to a potential 35-plus homer three-true-outcomes masher. At first glance, he pulls the ball too much, but fortunately he also keeps the ball off the ground (groundball rate just north of 35%), and hitters with his raw power can get away with high pull rates if they're elevating with authority. He is not a perfect prospect, and Double-A/Triple-A will really test his hit tool (needs to be at least a 40), but there is a chance I'm focusing too much on what he can't do, rather than what he excels at.

Pitcher: Antoine Kelly

Most evaluators peg Kelly as a future reliever due to his underdeveloped secondary offerings and concerns about his command. This 201-225 range is littered with pitchers who are decent bets to end up in the bullpen, so we're past the point where relief risk is a major knock. What I can't get over with Kelly is how smooth and athletic his delivery is for a 6-foot-6 southpaw, and how easy his upper-90s fastball velocity is. His is an extremely special left arm, and any player development staff would love the chance to try to develop him as a starter. His slider is way ahead of his changeup, so the fallback of a fastball/slider late-inning arm is obvious. However, if he can develop some sort of 50-grade third pitch and he throws as many strikes as I think he will, his upside will be through the roof.

Might Be Too High

These are guys who I keep thinking I might have ranked a little bit too high.

Hitter: Josh Smith/Will Benson/Julio Carreras

Smith is a perfect example of my prospect kryptonite: a bat-first, hit-over-power second baseman. We can't really read too much into what a 21/22-year-old hitter did against short-season pitching, but to quickly recap: 17.7 BB%, 12.1 K%, 40.6 GB%, 32.0 Oppo%, 177 wRC+. That's about as encouraging as it gets. He also happens to hit left-handed, which is a nice differentiator from the typical bat-first second baseman. Perhaps I'm falling prey once again for a second baseman with a great hit tool and not much else, but I just can't help it — I think his hit tool is awesome!

This 201-225 range is loaded with high-risk/high-upside prospects, and Benson could be the poster child for that subset. He has 70-grade raw power from the left side and at least 55-grade speed. He has also always walked at least 12 percent of the time. Benson mastered Low-A in a repeat trip and then struggled mightily at High-A. While it's possible he will once again show much better while repeating a level, we can't just assume that he will because of what happened at Low-A. Often with high-strikeout hitters, they eventually reach a level that they just can't solve, and thus ends their run of being a relevant prospect. I'm cautiously optimistic that Benson hasn't yet reached that level, but if he has, we will probably know fairly quickly, and he could go the way of Estevan Florial and head to the fringes of the top 400. 

Carreras is toolsy and relatively young by Rockies' position player prospect standards. Colorado loves its college hitters and has had limited success on the international market, but Carreras could be a rare exception. At 18, he was old for the Dominican Summer League in 2018, but he raked there. As a 19-year-old, he more than held his own in the Pioneer League, but as I've mentioned many times, production in that league cannot be trusted. Thus far he has made contact at a solid clip while showing solid pop and utilizing above-average to plus speed on the bases. He can handle multiple infield spots, but fits best at third base long term. I'm not quite sold on the hit tool, but the rest of his tools and the potential to play in Coors Field are what keep him in this range for now.

Pitcher: Seth Corry

As I mentioned with Kelly, this 201-225 range is loaded with pitchers with bullpen risk. Based on command and stuff, the only pitchers without significant bullpen risk in this range are Corry and Triston McKenzie, who comes with his own unique risk factors after missing all of 2019 and part of 2018 with forearm and back strains. The reason I might have Corry too high is that while I expect him to continue developing as a starter, I don't really see an exciting starter for fantasy. While I think he has the command to start, it's not a strong tool for him (projects as 50-grade). As a southpaw with a plus low-to-mid-90s fastball, he racked up strikeouts at Low-A, but he may not have a second plus pitch when all is said and done (the curveball is going to be close). If Corry were in a neutral pitching farm system, he wouldn't be in this range, but I'm giving him a slight bump due to his eventual home in Oracle Park. 

Feel free to ask me any prospect-related questions in the comments section or on Twitter.