This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
We have had minor-league hard-hit data up on the site for six weeks now, and I hope it has been a valuable tool for our subscribers -- I know it has been valuable for me when updating the top 400 prospect rankings. We are still working on getting the data feeds for certain players, but the vast majority of notable full-season hitters are accounted for. Before getting into some players whose stock is bolstered by their hard-hit rates and some prospects who have produced concerning data in this realm, I want to touch on a couple things that we should keep in mind when using this data.
First, we need to keep in mind where certain prospects are at in their development. An example here is Luis Garcia of the Nationals. He is by far the youngest hitter at Double-A, so while it would be awesome if he were consistently hitting the ball hard, I don't think we should penalize him too harshly for the fact that he is not. Garcia is at least a couple years away from being a power threat, that much is clear, and the fact he has a 14.6 Hard% this season does not mean all is lost.
Secondly, we need to think about what a hitter is trying to do at the plate. Two examples here would be Xavier Edwards and Brice Turang. Both of these shortstop prospects have excellent bat-to-ball skills and at least plus speed. They are putting those skills
We have had minor-league hard-hit data up on the site for six weeks now, and I hope it has been a valuable tool for our subscribers -- I know it has been valuable for me when updating the top 400 prospect rankings. We are still working on getting the data feeds for certain players, but the vast majority of notable full-season hitters are accounted for. Before getting into some players whose stock is bolstered by their hard-hit rates and some prospects who have produced concerning data in this realm, I want to touch on a couple things that we should keep in mind when using this data.
First, we need to keep in mind where certain prospects are at in their development. An example here is Luis Garcia of the Nationals. He is by far the youngest hitter at Double-A, so while it would be awesome if he were consistently hitting the ball hard, I don't think we should penalize him too harshly for the fact that he is not. Garcia is at least a couple years away from being a power threat, that much is clear, and the fact he has a 14.6 Hard% this season does not mean all is lost.
Secondly, we need to think about what a hitter is trying to do at the plate. Two examples here would be Xavier Edwards and Brice Turang. Both of these shortstop prospects have excellent bat-to-ball skills and at least plus speed. They are putting those skills to use by hitting over 44 percent of their balls to the opposite field. This is an effective approach for them, but we need to be aware that they aren't even trying to hit the ball with authority in many instances. The more a player tries to pull the ball, the higher we should expect their Hard% to be, and conversely, if a player is stressing an opposite-field approach, we shouldn't expect them to rate highly in Hard%.
Notable Winners
Jo Adell, OF 
It's not surprising to see that Adell is hitting the ball hard, but it's nice to have this data confirm what we think we know about him. I'm not sure if he'll be up at all this year, but if you want to go upside hunting with your last bench spot, you probably can't do better than Adell.
Bobby Bradley, 1B 
We would expect a slugger of Bradley's ilk to rate favorably with hard-hit data, but it's impressive just how well he rates. Only Alvarez's 6.8 Soft% was better among qualified top-200 prospects. When Bradley connects, he does damage, it's just a matter of him making enough contact for his thump to matter.
Sherten Apostel, 3B 
As Prospects Live analyst Eddy Almaguer says, we should all be Hurtin' for Sherten. The fact he is hitting the ball so hard isn't surprising -- he's a uniquely large (6-foot-4, 200+ pounds) and strong 20-year-old. His 45.2 Hard% leads all top-200 prospects. His 23.4 K% is just as impressive to me, as this archetype of prospect typically strikes out in the 25-35 percent range.
Evan White, 1B 
Since the start of May, White is hitting .321/.380/.532 with nine home runs and a 21.6 K% in 171 plate appearances. I don't find his performance this season overly impressive, given that he is a 23-year-old first baseman at Double-A, but he's doing what he needed to do to remain relevant in all dynasty formats.
Jeter Downs, 2B/SS 
Most of the other prospects positively featured here are slugging corner bats, but Downs is a no-doubt middle infielder with above-average speed, which makes what he is doing all the more impressive. I think he has the upside to match peak Ian Desmond's production.
Will Smith, C
Smith has made drastic improvements this year, trimming his K% from 31.8 percent to 18.7 percent and cutting his Pull% from north of 50 percent to 41.8 percent. Even if he can't hold those gains against MLB pitching, he will hit a lot of home runs, given his hard contact and flyball-heavy approach.
Travis Demeritte, OF 
Once a highly-touted infield prospect, Demeritte has moved full time to the outfield corners. His batted-ball profile at Triple-A is pretty flawless (24.0 LD%, 41.5 FB%, 40.2 Pull%, 32.2 Oppo%) and his 70:38 K:BB in 285 plate appearances is manageable. We should be taking more notice.
Isiah Gilliam, OF 
Look at this stud. Gilliam leads all qualified top-400 prospects in Hard% and Soft%, and is still very much off the radar. There are plenty of flaws -- he has a 32.8 K% at High-A, will turn 23 next month and won't add any defensive value -- but his mammoth power potential makes him worth keeping an eye on.
Kyle Lewis, OF
It is pretty concerning that Lewis only has four home runs and a .122 ISO at Double-A, but at least we know he is still hitting the ball pretty hard. If he can improve his 28.4 K% and 29.6 FB%, the physical tools are still here for Lewis to be a middle-of-the-order hitter.
Jhailyn Ortiz, OF 
Hello, old friend. Ortiz still isn't hitting enough (.222/.297/.439) for a slugger with his defensive limitations, but through 58 games, he has almost matched the 13 home runs he hit in 110 games at Low-A last year. At least the 70-grade raw power is showing up. If his hit tool improves drastically, he would have middle-of-the-order upside.
Micker Adolfo, OF 
He is out for the year after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow (he has already had Tommy John surgery), but Adolfo will probably finish the year as the hard-hit leader from the minor-league ranks. The sample is small (95 plate appearances), but his upside is too great to completely write him off, even with multiple elbow procedures.
Pedro Gonzalez, OF
Gonzalez's development has been arduous, and he is still striking out too much (29.3 K%) for a 21-year-old at Low-A, but he is finally starting to fully tap into his massive power potential (career-best .228 ISO, career-best 13 HR). It's a profile that we should probably bet against, but this has been a positive season for the former Rockies farmhand.
Notable Losers
Jarred Kelenic, OF
I think Kelenic is slightly overrated, and this is part of the reason why. Yes, he is a teenager who might be able to stick up the middle, but this is a guy with a very pull-heavy approach (54.5 percent at Low-A), so we would expect him to be hitting the ball hard. Kelenic is still easily a top-50 prospect, but if you can cash him out for someone like George Valera, I'd jump on that.
Jordyn Adams, OF
There were some very lazy comparisons of Adams to Jo Adell around last year's draft and even this past offseason. Adams is a great athlete, but he's not close to the prospect Adell was this time last year. A big part of the problem with Adams is that he hits the ball on the ground over 50 percent of the time. If he can cut that by about 10 percent, things could trend up.
Esteury Ruiz, 2B 
I know there are some big Ruiz fans out there, but I'm just not into it on any level. This is a guy who is trying to hit for power (46.3 FB%, 28.3 K%), and he still has a Hard% under 10 percent. Additionally, he is not as fast as his minor-league stolen-base totals indicate.
Anderson Tejeda, SS
Like Ruiz, Tejeda (who is on the injured list with a shoulder injury) is trying to hit for power (42.6 FB%, 32.0 K%), which makes his lack of hard contact all the more concerning. Even more troubling is the fact that he was repeating High-A this year and is still struggling to this extent.
Grant Lavigne, 1B 
Lavigne has been a massive disappointment this year. I wasn't as high on him as many, but I still expected him to rake in the hitter-friendly park in Asheville. He has actually been better on the road (.709 OPS) than at home (.704 OPS), but the point is, he's not raking the way a first base prospect needs to, and it shows up in the hard-hit data.
We certainly don't need this data to say that Mesa has been a colossal disappointment, but here it is anyway. This was easily my worst call of the offseason and perhaps of my career. Mesa could still develop into a leadoff hitter, but he has such a long way to go that I'm fine cutting him loose in many formats.
Miguel Vargas, 3B/1B
If Vargas were a shortstop with speed like Xavier Edwards or Brice Turang, I wouldn't be concerned, given that he has an opposite-field approach. The problem is, he is physically mature (6-foot-3, 205 pounds) and could end up being a first baseman. We know he has a great hit tool, but he needs to be doing more damage at the dish.
Wenceel Perez, SS 
This is not an instance of Perez regularly going the other way like Edwards and Turang, but a product of his inability to get the ball in the air (57.6 GB%). The speed and defense are still there, but he needs to do something with the bat.
Moises Gomez, OF 
Gomez needs to rake to be a big leaguer, as he is a heavy 5-foot-11, 200-pound outfielder who could be a defensive liability. He answered the bell at Low-A last year, but has struggled so much in his first taste of High-A that I bumped him off the top-400.
