Collette Calls: Effects of Relocation

In the past 36 hours, we have seen arguably the biggest name in pitching along with two outfielders relocated to new teams as the Mariners and Rays got trade deadline weekend started with their respective deals. Luis Castillo and David Peralta have had fantasy relevancy in nearly all league formats, so we should take a look at how their new locations could potentially impact the rest of their seasons as you continue pushing toward your dreams of winning your fantasy league(s). Let us start with the big one in Castillo.

The Castillo "resurgence" has been fun to watch this season after his usual slow start to the season. Castillo normally performs terribly in April with an aversion to colder weather and heats up as the season warms up, but he has steadily made progress from a sore shoulder very early in 2022 to regularly work six-plus inning in each of his final five outings with Cincinnati while allowing just six earned runs during that span. The big problem with the boom-or-bust Cincy offense and the mostly bust bullpen is Castillo had just two wins in those six starts and only four in the 14 starts he has made this season despite outstanding peripherals across the board. He is 2-2 with a 2.62 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a 25% strikeout rate since Memorial Day weekend over nine starts. The move from Cincinnati to Seattle should benefit Castillo in a few ways, but not in others. 

The average run support for a starting pitcher while they're in a game this season is 4.1 runs per game. The Dodgers are the best in the league, providing 5.1 runs per contest when their starter is in the game while the Tigers are the worst at 2.8 runs per outing. The Reds were a below-average team, affording their starters 3.9 runs per outing, but Seattle is not much better coming in right at league average at 4.1. Now that we know Julio Rodriguez is going to the IL for at least 10 days with wrist soreness after being hit on the wrist over the weekend and Ty France is also suffering from wrist soreness, the Seattle run production takes an immediate hit as Castillo takes the mound for his first appearance with his new club this coming Wednesday as the team wraps up its road trip in New York against the Yankees. Castillo just faced the club right before the break, going seven innings with eight strikeouts against four walks, scattering two hits and allowing one run in one of the aforementioned no-decisions as the club came back in extra innings against the Yankee bullpen to win in 10 innings. He will have to turn around and face them one more time when the club returns to Seattle and he makes his Mariners debut in front of the home crowd. The schedule after that gets rather soft:

Half of Castilo's starts will come in Seattle, which will be a welcomed improvement over Great American Ball Park as we compare the three-year rolling averages of the two stadiums by the park factors at BaseballSavant:

The home matchup against Cleveland could potentially be problematic as they are the toughest team in the league to strike out and the Atlanta matchup is never an easy one, but he should otherwise have the opportunity to excel at home. The road matchups are not very tough either with all but Kauffman Stadium coming in below league average on overall Park Factor this season. 

Castillo should also welcome the services of the Seattle bullpen. By fWAR, it has been a league average bullpen, but the Cincinnati bullpen has easily been the worst bullpen in baseball this year with a collective ERA of 5.21, 1.45 WHIP and 1.4 HR/9. Cincinnati has allowed 38% of inherited runners to score this season; the league average is 32% and Seattle has been one of the best in baseball, allowing 27% of inherited runners to score. The Mariner bullpen has converted 72% of its save opportunities this season while the Reds have converted 58% against the league average of 64%. Finally, and most importantly, Castillo moves from a terrible defensive club to one of the better ones in baseball. Seattle is a top 10 defensive club by most measures and even leads the league in the rudimentary measure of fielding percentage while the Reds are in the bottom 10 in most measures. 

Simply put, this is a wonderful situation for those mixed-league managers who targeted or acquired Castillo this year. For AL-only players, this is why you have hoarded FAAB cash to spend at the deadline. FAABapalooza is going to be stretched out over two weeks with the trade deadline being on Tuesday, so while there may be other big names dealt in the next 48 hours, I do not forsee anyone being in a better situation than Castillo moving on up to the upper west side of the country.

The situation is a bit different for David Peralta as he leaves Arizona for Tampa Bay as he moves from a mostly neutral situation to a somewhat less friendly home park. The chart below shows the three-year rolling average park factors for lefty hitters in Chase Field and Tropicana Field:

Peralta made noticeable changes to his swing this year to look for more loft and launch in the final year of his deal as he attempts to find another multi-year deal on the open market this year.  He has completely rebuilt his profile after a disappointing run from 2019-2021:

The move to the Rays will almost assuredly lead to Peralta entering into platoon with the likes of Harold Ramirez and/or Manuel Margot as both are on their way back from injuries, with Ramirez much closer to returning. Peralta's issues against lefties are well documented and the Rays more than most teams do a good job of attempting to minimize those risks with similar players such as Ji-Man Choi. Peralta has spent most of the season hitting fifth for Arizona and assumed that familiar spot in his first game with the Rays in between righties Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes. The remaining games on the Tampa Bay schedule include the following stadiums, games and HR park factors for lefties in 2022:

On the plus side, there may be some potential for Peralta to push toward 20 homers for just the second time in his career with how Tropicana Field is playing up for lefty hitters and homers this season. The issue would be how many lefties may be coming his way in some of the non-AL East games as things stand today. He has to worry about matchups against Nestor Cortes and Jordan Montgomery in those Yankees series and could see the likes of Yusei Kikuchi, Tarik Skubal and Aaron Ashby negate some of the matchups in other games. If you figure he gets 70% of the plate appearances in left field the rest of the way, you should not be disappointed.