This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Bookmakers are still trying to figure out how to rate Premier League matches after an historic season in which 3.24 goals were scored per match. Through four gameweeks (40 matches), matches have averaged 2.65 goals, down a significant amount from last season in a much smaller sample.
While the over/unders adjusted a bit after the first two weeks, there are still a lot of heavy numbers. The implied totals between Liverpool/Bournemouth and West Ham/Chelsea are pushing closer to 3.50 goals, which I think is too much. If you removed the historic 2023/24 season, those totals would likely be closer to 3.00 than 3.50, which means I still think there's some value on unders in Gameweek 5.
Want more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris Owen provide six bets from six different matches. Even further, Adam has a separate Corners & Wagers show where he talks only on corners.
Record: 5-4. Up $130 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Chelsea at West Ham United
2-3 goals scored between West Ham and Chelsea +115
Premier League goal-band bets can be found at the DraftKings Sportsbook. If you need to sign up, click through our DraftKings promo code page for a deposit bonus.
This wasn't one of my initial bets, but I talked myself into it in the intro. While I like under 2.5 goals at +145, I think a 2-1 result is in play, making a goal band bet a better idea. I'm still not entirely sure what to make of either of these teams under new managers. West Ham haven't done anything exciting, while Chelsea have been mostly mediocre outside of the six goals scored at Wolverhampton.
I think both teams have issues to work out on both ends of the pitch and that should lead to a result similar to recent 1-1 draws both teams have had. Julen Lopetegui has been fairly tentative with his lineup, recently playing Edson Alvarez and Guido Rodriguez together, two defensive-heavy midfielders. If he does that again, it feels like this will be a grind-it-out type of match with 1-1 or 2-1 being the most likely results.
EPL Best Bets for AFC Bournemouth at Liverpool
Under 3.5 goals between Liverpool and Bournemouth -105
Premier League over/unders are available at BetMGM. If you haven't signed up, you can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet.
I think it's crazy a Liverpool match is still projected to have the most goals in a weekend. This team is not managed by Jurgen Klopp and the books oddly haven't changed their process. Their win at Milan had four goals Tuesday, but that also included a third-minute opener by Milan and two ridiculously easy set-piece goals.
Normally, I'd be worried about Bournemouth's penchant to press opponents no matter who they play, but their scoring struggles combined with Liverpool's safer play should mean fewer goals. Outside of three goals in the final 10 minutes against Everton, Bournemouth haven't scored more than one in any match. Meanwhile, all four Liverpool league matches have gone under four goals with the only one above two being the 3-0 win at Old Trafford.
You could get weird and throw in under 1.5 first half goals with this or even Liverpool moneyline, but that bet got me last week. Let's keep it easy with a simple under 3.5 goals.
EPL Best Bets for Wolverhampton at Aston Villa
SGP: Aston Villa to beat Wolves + Rogers 2+ shots +113
I wanted to bet Aston Villa in some way because I think Wolves are headed for a bottom-five finish. While playing midweek Champions League throws a wrench into things for Villa, the season is still early and I'm not worried about it just yet.
Wolves have been somewhat better defensively since the Chelsea match, but they couldn't get any worse. The positive from last weekend is that both goals allowed to Newcastle came from outside the box, one of them taking a massive deflection. No matter, Villa are at home and they should win.
At -175 to win, I had to add a few more things to get a number I liked. I think they'll score multiple goals and that single-game parlay (with over 1.5) gets -125 odds. For better numbers, I think you can add a few player shot props, depending on the starting XI. I'm slightly worried about Jacob Ramsey's minutes after going 90 minutes Tuesday and with Leon Bailey returning to the bench. Morgan Rogers seems to be safer to play longer and after some line shopping, I found Aston Villa moneyline with Rogers to have two-plus shots at decent odds.
If you're looking for some boosts and can't decide which one, check out RotoWire's sportsbook promo codes.
EPL Best Bets for Nottingham Forest at Brighton and Brentford at Tottenham Hotspur
Parlay: Under 3.5 goals between Brighton/Forest + BTTS between Spurs/Brentford +108
I have two single-game parlays for these matches, but instead of writing those up, I'm parlaying the matches together like an idiot. At least this isn't a moneyline parlay.
Brighton killed me last week by not scoring against Ipswich Town and I think their match against Nottingham Forest could go similar. Forest will gladly sit back and go on the counter when given the opportunity as seen in their win at Liverpool. It feels like the same thing will happen for Brighton and they may or may not score that opening goal to turn the tide.
Elsewhere, I think the Brentford and Tottenham matchup points to goals for both sides and I'd even look at over 3.5 total goals. This matchup was up and down last season and I figure both sides will get chances throughout the match. Brentford have been a thorn in many top sides over the years and even without Yoane Wissa, I think Bryan Mbeumo and the rest will rack up shots on the counter.
EPL Betting Picks Matchday 5
- 2-3 goals scored between Chelsea and West Ham +115
- Under 3.5 goals between Liverpool and Bournemouth -105
- SGP: Aston Villa to beat Wolves + Rogers 2+ shots +113
- Parlay: Under 3.5 goals between Brighton/Forest + BTTS between Spurs/Brentford +108
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. Claim over a thousand dollars in bonuses by signing up at the best sports betting sites using the best sportsbook promos.
