This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The first international break is always kind of a letdown. You get pumped for the start of the new season and then only a few weeks later, it's back to international play. Unfortunately during this break, numerous players picked up injuries, including Martin Odegaard, Ezri Konsa and Niclas Fullkrug.
It's probably best for every player to take the week off instead of traveling and putting more minutes on their legs, but no one is going to turn down a chance to player for their national teams. And so, players put more miles on their bodies than they should and with European play upcoming, injuries will only accumulate, making it harder to read matches and project how managers will attack opponents.
Want more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris Owen provide six bets from six different matches.
Record: 3-3. Up $15 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Brentford at Manchester City
SGP: Under 4.5 goals + Man City over 6.5 corners against Brentford -105
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There aren't a ton of unknowns about how this match will go. Brentford will try to defend for their lives and then hopefully get Bryan Mbeumo or Yoane Wissa through for a goal or two. That's roughly how things went at Liverpool a couple weeks ago and similar to how matchups between Pep Guardiola and Thomas Frank have gone the last few seasons.
Brentford have stolen wins, but they need to execute perfectly for that to happen. When the Bees won at the Etihad two seasons ago, Ivan Toney bagged a last-minute goal off the counter in a match in which City managed just 1.61 xG from 29 shots and 10 corners.
Unless City score multiple goals in the first half, I think they'll easily reach 20-plus shots and again come close to 10 corners. Instead of banking on too many corners, I'm also looking at under 4.5 goals for the total because I think Brentford's defense will do enough to not allow too many goals. It's always possible this finishes 4-1, but I think something like a 2-0 result is most likely with 3-1 being the max. Low goals and high corners for City is a good recipe for me.
EPL Best Bets for Nottingham Forest at Liverpool
SGP: Under 4.5 goals + Liverpool over 6.5 corners + Liverpool ML against Forest +145
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I don't like repeating bets, but as similar favorites against similarly lesser teams, it makes sense to bet Liverpool the same as I did Man City. Nottingham Forest have been impressive in the early season, but their league matches have come against Wolves, Southampton and Bournemouth. This is a massive step up in competition and at Anfield.
Forest will likely sit back and try to score goals off the counter unless Nuno Espirito Santo tries something different. This version of Liverpool is fairly patient and slower in their build up. Unlike the Jurgen Klopp teams, they aren't frantic and they'll pick their spots when they arise. That's led to three straight clean sheets and seven goals scored in those matches.
This has the makings of another 2-0 type of result unless Forest can use some early confidence to find a goal somewhere. I'm not positive that happens because even though they've played relatively well in the opening season, they've scored just one goal in each of their three matches despite arguably looking like the better team in all of them.
EPL Best Bets for Newcastle at Wolverhampton
SGP: 'Yes' Both teams to score + over 9.5 corners between Wolves and Newcastle +120
I hate betting over 3.5 goals, but I think both teams are scoring in this game, so I still wanted to bet goals someway.
Wolverhampton have started the season miserably and that led to a quick change in their lineup last match at Nottingham Forest where Toti Gomes played as a faux left-back with Yerson Mosquera and Craig Dawson playing more centrally. While that didn't make them an elite team, they only gave up one goal and managed one point away from home.
I believe Wolves are a bottom-five team with minimal depth and questionable attacking talent outside of Matheus Cunha. While their defense has been terrible, they can still score off the counter even with problems holding down the midfield. The same kind of goes for Newcastle, who haven't looked great in early matches partly due to lackluster midfield performances.
I think this could be a little more up and down than the numbers suggest because neither one of these teams will control the match. Two iffy back lines combined with minimal control in the midfield usually leads to up-and-down matches with corners to both sides. So let's bet goals for both teams and 10-plus corners.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 4
- SGP: Under 4.5 goals + Man City over 6.5 corners against Brentford -105
- SGP: Under 4.5 goals + Liverpool over 6.5 corners + Liverpool ML against Forest +145
- SGP: 'Yes' Both teams to score + over 9.5 corners between Wolves and Newcastle +120
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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