Netherlands vs Japan Picks, Tips, Odds & Best Bets: 2026 World Cup Group F
Netherlands vs Japan kicks off Sunday, June 14 at 4 p.m. ET, and the betting market is giving the Oranje a plus-money price against a short-handed Japan squad. My Netherlands vs Japan best bets start with the Dutch moneyline, but there are also angles worth targeting in the anytime goalscorer and both teams to score markets.
The Netherlands have enough quality in defense and midfield to control this match, while Japan's injury issues make this a difficult World Cup opener. Still, the Dutch have not been airtight defensively, which is why I'm backing the Netherlands to win without fully fading Japan's attack.
Netherlands vs Japan Picks & Odds
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Netherlands win | +106 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Japan win | +265 |
| Donyell Malen anytime goalscorer | +198 |
| Both teams to score | -129 |
| Correct score prediction | Netherlands 2-1 Japan |
Netherlands vs Japan Best Bets
Netherlands Moneyline (+106)
On paper, Japan should have a good chance to secure a positive result in this World Cup opener. They'll be facing a Netherlands side that doesn't have the best attacking line, and the Blue Samurai have pulled several upsets of late, including wins over Brazil and England over the last 12 months.
However, Japan will be far from being at full strength. Takumi Minamino (knee), Kaoru Mitoma (hamstring) and Wataru Endo (undisclosed) are all out of the World Cup squad, meaning Japan will be without three of their best and more experienced players.
That should tip the scales in the Netherlands' favor. The Dutch side will rely on Memphis Depay and Donyell Malen, as well as an out-of-form Cody Gakpo, to penetrate the Japanese defensive line.
But with elite talent in midfield and perhaps one of the best defenses in the tournament, the Netherlands should be able to keep things calm at their own end while controlling the tempo of the game. It won't be a blowout, but I'm backing the Oranje to secure the victory. They went undefeated in the qualifiers (W6, D2) and are unbeaten in their last 16 World Cup group-stage matches (W12, D4) dating back to 1994.
Donyell Malen Anytime Goalscorer (+198)
Even though Depay is the Netherlands' all-time leading scoring and has solid odds to score at any point in this game (+175), he's coming off an injury-plagued stretch at Corinthians and is clearly past his prime. Gakpo had a subpar season at Liverpool, but Malen was nearly unstoppable at AS Roma the second half of the season. We're trusting him to continue the outstanding form he showed with the Giallorossi, a form that earned him a place in the Dutch starting lineup.
Malen joined the Serie A giants on loan from Aston Villa during the January transfer window and registered 15 goals in 20 appearances between Serie A and the UEFA Europa League. He finished as one of the top scorers in the Italian league despite playing just half a season, so we're trusting him to translate that form into the World Cup stage.
Both Teams to Score - Yes (-129)
The Netherlands have outstanding depth on the defensive end, but there are some caveats to consider. Starting goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen will be a game-time decision due to a hip problem, and Arsenal right-back Jurrien Timber won't play in the tournament due to injury. The defense still has Micky van de Ven, Virgil van Dijk and Jean-Paul van Hecke, but the Dutch side has conceded at least once in each of their last four contests.
Japan have also proven they can score regardless of the opposition they face. They've found the back of the net in each of their last seven contests, a run in which they've scored against Brazil, England and Paraguay. Given that the Netherlands are favorites and should be capable of scoring as well, aiming at both teams scoring looks like a strong pick at -129 odds.
Netherlands vs. Japan Betting Picks
- Netherlands to win: +106
- Netherlands vs. Japan Anytime Goalscorer (Best Bet): Donyell Malen to score anytime: +198
- Netherlands vs. Japan BTTS: Both teams to score - yes: -129
Visit RotoWire's World Cup hub for more sports betting picks and daily betting articles. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. Claim over a thousand dollars in bonuses by signing up at the best sports betting sites using the best sportsbook promos.
