This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
There's more Round of 16 action this week starting with a seemingly one-sided clash between heavy favorite Arsenal (-425), home against Porto, while Barcelona get a slight edge (-115) against Napoli. The matches will be more evenly contested Wednesday, at least according to the odds, as Dortmund (+110) host PSV Eindhoven and Inter Milan (+150) visit Atletico Madrid.
Champions League Best Bets for Tuesday, March 12
Arsenal to Win and Kai Havertz to Score (+190)
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You'll have to get creative when looking for some value given that the Gunners are playing at the Emirates and have racked up 12 goals in their last three Premier League matches while giving up just two. Still, Porto enter this contest with the 1-0 lead on aggregate, so you could chase the upset and grab Porto to advance at +225.
Of those aforementioned 12 goals, three have come from Havertz, who has scored in four of his last five outings. Of course, the game he was left off the scoresheet was the reverse fixture versus Porto. He'll return solid +160 value as an anytime goalscorer, while also being +175 for two or more shots on target and +160 for four or more shots. I'm doubling down and taking a player parlay on DraftKings with Havertz to score and Arsenal to win at +190.
Barcelona to beat Napoli (-115)
Napoli winning on the road is a tough ask, which is why they are +310, but at least they don't have to go into Camp Nou (this match is being played at Barcelona's Olympic Stadium near downtown). The Italian side hasn't lost since Feb. 1 versus AC Milan, though they have had four 1-1 draws over that stretch, including the reverse fixture with Barcelona.
I really want to back Napoli, in part to the higher payouts, but I think it makes the most sense to just give up a little juice and take Barcelona to win at -115. Despite some injury concerns, this is still a deep squad that can field the likes of Robert Lewandowski, Joao Felix and Ilkay Gundogan to try to put the tie out of reach.
UCL Best Bets for Wednesday, March 13
Donyell Malen Anytime Goalscorer +200
The moneylines are pretty close to even for the two Wednesday matchups with Dortmund heading into a home matchup with PSV currently tied 1-1 on aggregate. For the away side, PSV haven't lost in eight straight dating back to Jan. 24.
I'm staying away from the game lines, though the total at over 3.5 (+140) is tempting, and looking to the player props. I won't get overly creative and stick to Malen to score a goal. He's scored in each of his last four starts for a combined five goals, including the clash in the Netherlands in the first leg. He's +200 to score in the second leg despite his recent form, which is behind Luuk de Jong (+150) and teammates Niclas Fullkrug (+150) and Youssoufa Moukoko (+180).
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Inter Milan Draw No Bet (-135)
Betting for a road win normally seems a little risky, but it's hard to ignore that Inter Milan have won every match in 2024, a run of 13 straight victories that includes the first leg 1-0 win over Atletico Madrid and a SuperCoppa Italiana title over Napoli.
In Serie A action, Lautaro Martinez has accounted for 34 percent of the team's goals but has scored just twice in the Champions League, which factors into him being a +200 anytime goal scorer Wednesday.
That said, I like Inter draw no bet at -135 to capitalize on a continuation of their winning streak while also avoiding the fairly possible draw result, as a 1-1 correct score play sits as the favorite at +390.
UCL Betting Picks Round of 16
- Arsenal to Win and Kai Havertz to Score +190
- Barcelona to beat Napoli -115
- Donyell Malen Anytime Goalscorer +200
- Inter Milan Draw No Bet -135
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