NHL PrizePicks Today: Top NHL Player Props & Picks for April 11 – Best Plays

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Note: Time on Ice projections and picks can change frequently throughout the day due to injuries and changes to line combinations, especially power-play lines. I encourage readers to check the comments section below for any last-minute updates prior to puck drop.

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Analyzing NHL Time on Ice PrizePicks Plays

Card Overview: Not a great night on Thursday, I had a chance to go 3-2, but Seattle went to OT, and Montour went over his number because of the added time. I also missed on a forward. I should have known better; I just don't have much luck with forwards. 

As for today's card, once again, it looks okay, not great, but there are some good options. As I've stated over the past couple of weeks, as we get closer to the end of the season, we could see some strange things happen with ice time, so I'll try to stick to games that have meaning, especially if I'm taking the over. 

BUILDING BLOCKS

Mikhail Sergachev 25 vs. Carolina Hurricanes - 5:00 p.m. ET (LESS) 

While every coach has his own way of handling playing time once a team has clinched a playoff spot, it does seem like the first game after clinching is a popular time to rest some of the stars. This will be Utah's first game since clinching a playoff spot, and since the Mammoth can't improve their position, there's no real reason to go all out here. I'm sure they'd like to keep their spot as the first wild card, to avoid Colorado, but not at the expense of pushing their top guys too hard. We saw what happened to Miro Heiskanen on Thursday, and you can be sure that other teams noticed. Keep in mind that Dallas wasn't even pushing Heiskanen hard down the stretch, but any time you are on the ice, an injury is possible. 

Brandon Montour 23 vs. Calgary Flames  - 7:00 p.m. ET (LESS) 

I mentioned how we lost on Montour on Thursday. He was under his number in regulation, but he got over a minute of ice time in OT. Keep in mind that Seattle was in a trail script for most of that game, so even while trailing, Montour still needed OT to go over. Basically, we need a neutral script, a positive script, or just to avoid OT to get the under here. Calgary was recently eliminated from the playoffs, so I can't imagine the Flames will have much fight here. Seattle has been out of it for a week or so and seems to be just riding it out until the end of the season. No need to push anyone too hard. 

Devon Toews 23.75 vs. Vegas Golden Knights  - 8:00 p.m. ET (LESS) 

I took the under on Nathan MacKinnon on Thursday with the notion that Colorado has little to play for, so the Avalanche would probably pull back on his minutes, but what I didn't consider was that they hadn't officially clinched the President's trophy. Well, now they have, so they truly have nothing to play for. Considering they lost their star defenseman, Cale Makar, a couple of weeks ago (he'll be back for the playoffs), I have to imagine they don't want to take any chances with their second-best defenseman in what is actually a meaningless game. Even when Toews has gone over this number lately, it hasn't been by much, so I can't imagine a script where Toews would sail over this number. Hopefully, they get out ahead, and we don't have to worry about any poor coaching decisions.

SCRIPT/LINE/INJURY DEPENDENT

Quinn Hughes 27.5 vs. Dallas Stars  - 9:00 p.m. ET (LESS) 

I'm suddenly in a rhythm with Hughes. I hit him under a couple of games ago, and I hit the over in his most recent game. It's been clear that Minnesota has been trying to win down the stretch to get home ice against Dallas, but with the Wild's loss on Thursday, that dream is all but over as Dallas is four points up and holds the tiebreaker. Minnesota should dial back Hughes' minutes down the stretch, but I've been saying that for weeks. I do believe things are different now that home ice in the first round seems unlikely. Even if the coach decides to play it as he has over the past couple of months, there's still a chance that Minnesota plays from ahead in this game, which is usually a recipe for an under with Hughes. 

Moritz Seider 27.25 vs. New Jersey Devils  - 5:00 p.m. ET (MORE) 

Seider has seen some crazy swings in his minutes over the past week. In his past two games, he's played over 29 minutes and right around 22 minutes. He's still somewhat script dependent, but here's the thing. Detroit has to win out, which means that two scripts will work here, neutral and trailing. He could get there in a positive script as long as the game stays tight. I thought about putting him in the building block section, but if the Red Wings get out to a big lead, it'll be tough to get over this number. 

Zach Werenski 28.5 at Montreal Canadiens  - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE) 

With so many teams near them in the standings, every game is a must-win for Columbus down the stretch. That means that Werenski is going to get all the minutes he can handle. This is a really high number, but Werenski has no problem playing this much. One of the reasons he gets so much ice time is that Columbus doesn't have a 6th defenseman that it trusts, often playing that spot less than 10 minutes per game, which means Werenski is often doubling up on shifts. We'll need this game to stay tight for as long as possible, though, as Werenski barely got over this number on Thursday because the Sabres blew out Columbus.