Target Breakdown: WR & TE Usage Report + Week 6 Fantasy Waivers Preview

Box Score Breakdown

Backfield Breakdown

Target Breakdown ⬇️   

Weekly Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

• WR Nico Collins (hamstring / week-to-week)
• WR Jordan Whittington (shoulder / day-to-day)
• WR Xavier Legette (shoulder/ uncertain)
• TE David Njoku (knee / uncertain)
• TE Tommy Tremble (concussion / day-to-day)

Collins was the big injury loss this week, pulling his hamstring in the process of scoring a 67-yard touchdown. He was on the injury report back in Week 4 with a hamstring issue but didn't end up having a game designation or any limitations. Collins likely will miss a game or two, and even if he returns fairly soon he'll be at increased risk for additional problems throughout the year.

Njoku returned from a high-ankle sprain, playing for the first time since Week 1, only to leave early with a knee injury. As of Tuesday afternoon, there hadn't been any update on the severity. The same goes for Legette's shoulder injury, while Whittington's shoulder injury is probably nothing serious (he played the entire game and now has a bye week to get healthy).

Missed Week 5

• WR Malik Nabers (concussion / day-to-day)
• WR Davante Adams (hamstring / week-to-week)
• WR Cooper Kupp (ankle / could return Week 7)
• WR Khalil Shakir (ankle / day-to-day)
• WR Christian Watson (high ankle / week-to-week)
• WR Noah Brown (groin / uncertain)
• WR K.J. Osborn (shoulder / uncertain)
• WR Jalen McMillan (hamstring / week-to-week)
• WR Trey Palmer (concussion / day-to-day)
• WR Marquise Brown (IR - shoulder / likely out for season)
• WR Puka Nacua (IR - knee / likely out until November)
• WR Odell Beckham (PUP - unspecified / eligible Week 5)
• WR Kendrick Bourne (PUP - knee / eligible Week 5)
• WR Ricky Pearsall (NFI - chest / eligible Week 5)
• WR DJ Chark (IR - hip / eligible Week 5)

• TE Evan Engram (hamstring / day-to-day)
• TE Taysom Hill (ribs)
• TE Michael Mayer (personal / day-to-day)
• TE Tanner Hudson (knee / week-to-week)
• TE Tyler Higbee (PUP - ACL / eligible Week 5)
• TE T.J. Hockenson (PUP - ACL / eligible Week 5)
• TE Ian Thomas (IR - calf)

Stock Report 📊

I'm focusing on role/usage more so than results/performance here, although there are certainly cases where the two are related or poor per-target efficiency can't just be written off as a small-sample or matchup problem. Unless otherwise specified, the target, route and air-yard shares shown next to each player are from all the games they've played in this season. I'll use 'W5' to denote stats from just the last game.

• AYS = Air-Yard Share (percent of team's air yards in games a player participated in)
• TS = Target Share (percent of team's targets in games a player participated in)

Trending Up 📈

Wide Receivers 📈

Drake London - 26% TS / 33% AYS / W5: 12-154-1

Tee Higgins - 28% TS / 41% AYS / 30% TPRR / W5: 14 tgts, 141 AY (9-83-2)

Brian Thomas - 22% TS / 30% AYS / 25% TPRR / W5: 8 tgts, 102 AY (5-122-1)

Zay Flowers - 27% TS / 29% AYS / W5: 12 tgts, 136 AY (7-111-0)

Terry McLaurin - 27% TS / 57% AYS (league high) / W5: 8 tgts, 171 AY (4-112-0)

DJ Moore - 26% TS / 32% AYS / W5: 8 tgts, 96 AY (5-105-2)

Brandon Aiyuk - 24% TS / 29% AYS / W5: 12 tgts, 160 AY (8-147-0

Jordan Addison - 21% TS / 33% AYS / W5: 8 tgts, 144 AY (3-36-0)

Darnell Mooney - 24% TS / 37% AYS / W5: 9-105-2

Josh Downs - 29% TS / 18% AYS / 37% TPRR / W5: 12 tgts, 80 AY (9-69-0)

Jakobi Meyers - 22% TS / 30% AYS / 19 tgts in two games without Adams

Jordan Whittington - 24% TPRR / W5: 10 tgts, 77 AY (7-89-0)

Tutu Atwell - 23% TPRR / W5: 10 tgts, 126 AY (6-58-0)

Wan'Dale Robinson - 28% TS / 31% TPRR

Jalen Tolbert - 15% AYS / W5: 10 tgts, 117 AY (7-87-1)

JuJu Smith-Schuster - W5: 68% routes, 7 tgts, 49 AY (7-130-)

Ja'Lynn Polk - W5: 100% snaps, 6 tgts, 93 AY (1-13-0)

Michael Wilson - 20% TPRR / 180 yards on 22 tgts past three weeks

Darius Slayton - W5: 97% routes, 11 tgts, 114 AY (8-112-1)

Xavier Hutchinson - W5: 70% snaps, 3 tgts, 25 AY (2-31-0)

Atwell and Whittington have proven to be legitimate fantasy starters with Cooper Kupp (ankle) and Puka Nacua (knee) sidelined, both topping 20% target share and double-digit fantasy points in back-to-back games. The question now is whether Kupp is ready to play after a Week 7 bye. That might still leave room for Whittington to have some value with Demarcus Robinson running so many clear-out rates and maintaining a low target rate (15% TPRR), especially if Nacua isn't ready by Week 8/9 (the reported range of when he might be available... or not).

Tight Ends 📈

Brock Bowers - 22% TS / 29% TPRR / W5: 12 tgts, 69 AY (8-97-1)

Travis Kelce - 21% TS / 28% AYS / 21% TPRR / W5: 10 tgts, 55 AY (9-70-)

George Kittle - 24% TS / 26% TPRR / W5: 12 tgts, 77 AY (8-64-1)

Trey McBride -26% TS / 22% AYS / 30% TPRR / W5: 9 tgts, 56 AY (6-53-0)

Jake Ferguson - 20% TS / 25% TPRR / W5: 7 tgts, 26 AY (6-70-0)

Tucker Kraft - W4+5: 85% snaps, 14 tgts (10-141-3)

Colby Parkinson - 21% TPRR / W5: 13 tgts, 94 AY (7-52-0)

Parkinson isn't good, but the volume alone makes it impossible not to be at least a low-end TE1. He obviously won't get nearly as many targets once Kupp and Nacua return, but there's a decent change that takes longer than expected and/or they get hurt again. Kraft has all the hype, and rightfully so, but Parkinson may also have some useful weeks ahead on the other side of a Week 6 bye. 

The other TEs gaining value are big names that have consolidated volume, although in Kittle's case I'm less confident it will stick, as the underlying circumstances that caused disappointing target shares the past couple years haven't really changed (apart from Christian McCaffrey competing for shallow targets, which may be a factor again a few weeks from now).

Trending Down 📉

Wide Receivers 📉

Deebo Samuel - 23% TPRR / eight tgts past two games

George Pickens - W5: 60% snaps, 65% routes

Chris Olave - 21% TPRR / W5: 4 tgts, 44 AY (2-10-0) / Derek Carr's oblique injury

Keenan Allen - 82 yards in three games / nine tgts past two weeks

Gabe Davis - 16% TS / 23% AYS / 17% TPRR / W5: 4 tgts, 43 AY (3-38-0 + lost fumble)

Jerry Jeudy - 18% TPRR / W5: 3 tgts, 43 AY (1-16-0)

Xavier Legette - W5: 1 tgt on 11 routes + shoulder injury

Andrei Iosivas - 13% TPRR / 10 tgts in 3 games with Higgins active

Bo Melton - W5: 43% routes, 2 tgts (1-12-0)

Brandon Aiyuk emphatically rebounded from his slow start to the season, but both he and Samuel are in danger of lower-than-expected target rates due to Jauan Jennings' emergence and George Kittle getting more involved with the passing game relative to the past couple years. That's not to say Samuel and Aiyuk should be benched or anything like that, but I do worry about the volume, especially if/when Christian McCaffrey returns. In Aiyuk's case, you at least feel better than a week ago, whereas Samuel is trending the other direction (and also struggling to make the most of his carries this year, averaging just 2.4 YPC). Of course, he is who he is, so he'll probably break a couple big plays Thursday and make us forget all about the slump... at least until McCaffrey returns, at which point you have five legitimate threats competing for targets.

The big surprise from this group is Pickens, who I discussed in more detail in Box Score Breakdown on Monday. Long story short, the Steelers yanked him from 12 personnel Sunday night, giving those snaps to Calvin Austin after Pickens took most of them Weeks 1-4. It's hard to use 'blocking' as the justification when he was replaced by one of the smallest players in the league, so it's definitely worth watching to see if there's discord or frustration between Pickens and OC Arthur Smith.

Tight Ends 📉

David Njoku: W5: 3 tgts on 20 routes / knee injury

Mark Andrews: 10% TS / 12% AYS / 17% TPPR / W5: 37% route share

Mike Gesicki - 8 tgts in 3 games w/ Higgins active

Andrews had his best receiving line of the season this past Sunday, catching four passes for 55 yards, but it was arguably his most discouraging week yet from a role standpoint, running just 16 routes (37%) in negative game script on an afternoon when Lamar Jackson attempted 42 passes. Isaiah Likely saw two fewer targets but ran nearly twice as many routes (70%), getting most of the playing time over Andrews in passing situations. As I mentioned last week, Andrews is droppable in shallow-ish leagues.

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

*Only includes players rostered in 60 percent or less of Yahoo Leagues

Wide Receivers

Short-Term Starters

1. Darnell Mooney - 48%
2. Jakobi Meyers - 54% 
3. Ladd McConkey - 55%
4. Wan'Dale Robinson - 53%
5. Josh Downs - 40%
6. Tyler Lockett -53%
7. Jordan Whittington - 15% (W6 Bye)
8. Jalen Tolbert - 7%
9. Ray-Ray McCloud - 7%
10. Allen Lazard - 36%
11. Michael Wilson - 13%
12. Tutu Atwell - 19% (W6 Bye)
13. Darius Slayton - 3%
14. Xavier Hutchinson - 0%
15. Jonathan Mingo - 1%

Most of the guys at the top of his list are rostered in medium/deep leagues, leaving some combination of Smith-Schuster Whittington, Tolbert, Wilson, Atwell, Bateman and McCloud as the realistic options for a lot of us. Whittington and Atwell have their bye this week, but I still think Whittington is the best addition among the group for those looking toward Weeks 7-10 more so than Week 6. Ja'Lynn Polk (listed below) is another guy that's available in a lot of leagues and shouldn't be started this week but is nonetheless worth picking up. In Polk's case we might be talking about November/December value rather than Weeks 7-8, with fantasy value depending on new starting QB Drake Maye playing reasonably well.

JuJu Smith-Schuster will get some big FAAB bids this week, and he may even be worth it in truly deep leagues without competitive alternatives, but in typical leagues he's unlikely to have anything more than WR4/5 value the rest of the way (and much more likely to end up being dropped a few weeks from now). Recall that he had zero targets Week 4 when Rashee Rice injured his knee early in the game. The MNF blow up was very likely fool's gold.

Bench Stashes

1. DeAndre Hopkins - 55%
2. Ja'Lynn Polk - 8%
3. Jerry Jeudy - 49%
4. Romeo Doubs - 33%
5. Keon Coleman - 45%
6. JuJu Smith-Schuster - 5%
7. Xavier Legette - 30% (shoulder)
8. Quentin Johnston - 28% 
9. DeMario Douglas - 6%
10. Tre Tucker - 18%
11. Adonai Mitchell - 9%
12. Troy Franklin - 1%
13. Jalen McMillan - 2% (hamstring)

With Hopkins and Jeudy, we're hoping for a trade and QB change, respectively. The current situations aren't going to produce fantasy value, but we've seen enough from them talent-wise this year to suggest WR3-type numbers would be possible if they had real QBs instead of Deshaun Watson and Will Levis. In Hopkins' case, there's also the problem of being a part-time player, which may or may not change after the Week 5 bye 

Potential Drops

• Gabe Davis - 22%
• Brandin Cooks - 18%
• Mike Williams - 20%
• Demarcus Robinson - 17% 
• Curtis Samuel - 16%
• Andrei Iosivas - 12%

Tight Ends

Recommended Adds

1. Colby Parkinson - 28% (W6 Bye)
2. Tyler Conklin - 30%
3. Cade Otton - 37%
4. Taysom Hill - 38% (ribs)
5. Jonnu Smith - 5%
6. Theo Johnson - 1%
7. Ja'Tavion Sanders - 1%
8. Jordan Akins - 1%

Potential Drops

• Noah Fant
• Mike Gesicki
• Luke Musgrave