NFL Game Previews: Seahawks-Giants Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

Seattle (+1.5) at N.Y. Giants, o/u 47 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

Since deciding not to come out of their locker room at halftime against the Rams in Week 1, the Seahawks have reeled off eight quarters of very good football, handing the Lions their only loss so far in OT before pulling away from the Panthers late. As is typical for successful Pete Carroll teams, the running game is looking like it might be a force. Kenneth Walker has four TDs in the team's two wins, and rookie Zach Charbonnet channeled his inner Marshawn Lynch when he put Sam Franklin up into about the fifth row of the stands at the end of a run last week. That's not to say Geno Smith's been invisible – he's got a 71.4 percent completion rate and 8.1 YPA in the two wins. As for the defense, well, how 'bout that offense? This could be the team people expected the Vikings to be this season, routinely engaging in wild contests where both teams score 30-plus.

After being the guy who spent most of last season wondering why everyone else was swooning over Brian Daboll, I'm taking a certain grim satisfaction in people starting to realize the emperor might in fact be naked. I'm not saying he's a terrible coach – that second-half rally against the Cards in Week 2 highlights the things he is good at – but the Giants have a limited QB in line to make $40 million a season through 2026 with a box of spare parts in place of wide receivers and a stud RB who has trouble staying healthy. The two elite defenses they've faced have absolutely bullied Daniel Jones into submission, and there could be a lot more where that came from. Their remaining schedule includes games against the Bills, Jets, the second Cowboys game, two against the Eagles, the Patriots and the Saints. Heck, the Commanders' pass rush could give them fits too. They also travel to Miami, and this team isn't keeping up with the Dolphins' offense. The Giants could be looking at four or five wins when it's all said and done, and even that might be optimistic. This matchup against the Seahawks – at home, so Seattle's flying cross-country for it – is one of their easier ones, and if they can't get it done here... who are they going to beat? Maybe they grab a win in Vegas in Week 9 and split with Washington, but other than that? When is Jones supposed to start earning his salary?

The Skinny

SEA injuries: WR DK Metcalf (questionable, ribs), S Julian Love (questionable, hamstring)
NYG injuries: RB Saquon Barkley (questionable, ankle)

SEA DFS targets: Tyler Lockett $6,000 DK / $6,900 FD (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
NYG DFS targets: Darren Waller $5,500 DK / $6,200 FD (SEA 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

SEA DFS fades: none
NYG DFS fades: Giants DST $2,800 DK / $3,500 FD (t-31st in takeaways, 31st in sacks, SEA t-1st in giveaways)

Key stat: SEA is 10th in yards per play at 5.42; NYG are 28th in yards per play allowed at 5.62

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Walker gallops for 90 yards and a TD. Smith throws for 320 yards and three scores, finding Lockett (who tops 100 yards) twice and Jaxon Smith-Njigba once. Matt Breida starts for NYG and ekes out 50 yards. Jones throws for 210 yards and touchdowns to Waller and Darius Slayton, but he also tosses a pick-six to a returning Jamal Adams. Seahawks 35-17

SUNDAY MORNING

Atlanta (+3) vs. Jacksonville at London, o/u 43.5
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EDT

The Falcons crashed back to earth last week after their 2-0 start, failing to get anything going on the ground against the Lions and as a result only managing two field goals. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier offer different skill sets, but Arthur Smith's game plan is still pretty predictable, and Allgeier especially suffers because of it – among backs averaging at least 10 carries a game so far, only Derrick Henry has seen a higher percentage of his runs coming with eight men in the box. (Bijan, at least, offers a pass-catching threat that forces safeties to back off a bit.) That limited imagination on offense could end up wasting a rapidly improving defense, as through three weeks, coordinator Ryan Nielsen has his unit ranking in the top eight in points per game allowed and yards per play allowed.

I debated giving the Jaguars the usual home-field advantage bonus for this game, given how often they play in London, but ultimately decided against it. My brand-new little jury-rigged algorithm ended up having them cover the spread anyway, so they didn't need it. (Incidentally, I have that bonus down to 1.5 points this year as the value of home-field advantage has been trending down significantly in recent years. Keep that in mind when you see people talk about a three-point spread still being the magic number — Vegas knows it doesn't reflect reality any more, but also knows the average bettor hasn't really caught on to that fact yet.) Jacksonville's stumbled out of the gate at 1-2, but one loss came against the defending champs and the other came against their divisional kryptonite in the Texans, so I'm not going to read too much into it even if both dud performances came at home. (Ahem, see link above.) Maybe a game in their autumn residence at Wembley is just what the Jags need right now. Trevor Lawrence hasn't really erupted yet in 2023, but Travis Etienne is averaging nearly 100 scrimmage yards a game and would be generating a lot more buzz if Tank Bigsby didn't keep vulturing red-zone TDs from him. (Is there a Tank prop bet out there of Bigsby vs Tank Dell, either week to week or for the whole season? Someone should get on that.) The offense will be fine, and so long as the defense doesn't get torched by any more rookie QBs and the coverage units find a way to stop any more fullbacks from scoring on kickoff returns, I still have the Jags winning the AFC South.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: RB Cordarrelle Patterson (questionable, thigh)
JAC injuries: WR Zay Jones (questionable, knee), EDGE Josh Allen (questionable, shoulder)

ATL DFS targets: none
JAC DFS targets: Christian Kirk $5,500 DK / $6,700 FD (ATL 24th in DVOA vs. WR2)

ATL DFS fades: Robinson $7,700 DK / $7,700 FD (JAC fourth in rushing DVOA, sixth in YPC allowed)
JAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: ATL is 27th in third-down conversions at 30.8 percent; JAC is 16th in third-down defense at 37.5 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the high 60s, 10-15 mph wind, 20-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Robinson manages only 70 combined yards but does score. Desmond Ridder throws for under 200 yards and finds Drake London for a TD but gets picked off twice, one of which Andre Cisco returns to the house. Etienne responds with 100 scrimmage yards. Lawrence throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Kirk and Jamal Agnew. Jaguars 21-17

EARLY SUNDAY

Miami (+2.5) at Buffalo, o/u 53.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

So, originally I was going to completely ditch 2022 stats this week in my game score algorithm, but the Dolphins ruined that plan with their 70-point Krakatoa-like offensive eruption against the Broncos, forcing me to keep last year's numbers partially in the mix just as a mitigating factor. Even so, well, you can see what it spit out for this one. (Denver's defensive vulnerabilities below should also be taken with a full shaker of salt.) Meanwhile, advanced stats say the Buffalo defense isn't to be trifled with in 2023, although again, the confidence level isn't high given the sample size. That's always the struggle in the NFL – by the time you have enough stats to feel like you have a handle on what a team really "is", the roster that built those stats has endured months worth of attrition. Sigh. Anyway, I'd say neither Raheem Mostert nor De'Von Achane will have four-TD games again in their careers, much less in the same game, but that just feels like daring Mike McDaniel to get at least one of them five scores some day en route to 80 points. Oh, and it looks like Jaylen Waddle will be back from his concussion Sunday. The Jalen Ramsey-less Miami defense remains mediocre, but the number of teams with offenses even theoretically capable of keeping pace with Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and company is pretty low.

Fortunately for Buffalo, they have one of those offenses. That Week 1 loss to the Jets could end up coming back to haunt them if the AFC East race goes down to the wire, but in two games since they're piled up 75 points and 836 yards, while the defense has more combined sacks and turnovers (17) than points allowed (13). Miami's also only one once in Buffalo in the last 11 years, an overtime Christmas Eve miracle in 2016 (what is Adam Gase doing these days, anyway?), so if anyone's going to derail the Dolphins' runaway train, it'll be the Bills. James Cook is still looking for his first TD of 2023, but he's doing everything else, and Latavius Murray and Daniel Harris have combined for three scores inside the five-yard line. Clearly the key for Cook is to not get tackled near the goal line and give Sean McDermott a chance to swap him out. It's just that easy.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: RB Jeff Wilson (IR, ribs), WR Waddle (questionable, concussion), WR River Cracraft (doubtful, shoulder), TE Durham Smythe (questionable, hamstring)
BUF injuries: EDGE Von Miller (PUP, knee), EDGE Leonard Floyd (questionable, ankle)

MIA DFS targets: none
BUF DFS targets: none

MIA DFS fades: Tagovailoa $7,400 DK / $8,000 FD (BUF second in passing DVOA, third in passing yards per game allowed), Mostert $6,500 DK / $7,900 FD and Achane $5,700 DK / $6,400 FD (BUF t-1st in rushing TDs allowed, second in passing DVOA vs. RB), Braxton Berrios $3,600 DK / $4,800 FD (BUF first in DVOA vs. WR3)
BUF DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 9-2 BUF, average score 33-20 BUF, average margin of victory 13 points. MIA has lost seven straight meetings at Highmark Stadium, including a 34-31 BUF win in last season's wild-card round
Key stat: MIA is first in red-zone conversions at 78.6 percent (11-for-14); BUF is second in red-zone defense at 28.6 percent (2-for-7)

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mostert leads the MIA backfield with 80 combined yards and a TD, while Achane adds 50 yards. Tua throws for 310 yards and four touchdowns, three to Tyreek (who tops 100 yards) and one to Alec Ingold. Cook racks up 120 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Josh Allen throws for 290 yards and two more TDs, one each to Stefon Diggs (who tops 100 yards) and Dawson Knox. Dolphins 41-34

Minnesota at Carolina (+3.5), o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Remember all those one-score games the Vikings won last year... ? Karma's a, well, you know. At 0-3, the trade chatter around Kirk Cousins is already starting to pick up, and while I have no doubt Justin Jefferson would be just fine with Nick Mullens under center, anyone considering a deal for any other piece of this offense may want to keep the QB situation in mind. (On the other hand, the thought of Cousins throwing to Drake London and Kyle Pitts, or Garrett Wilson and, uhh, Garrett Wilson, should be pretty exciting for worried investors in those players.) Of course, Cousins could end up staying even if Minnesota falls rapidly out of playoff contention, but only one team in NFL history has made the postseason after an 0-4 start, so no pressure here guys. You can't rule out the Vikings finding a way to make this way closer than it needs to be, but there's no way they will actually lose this one. Right?

The Panthers are also 0-3, but that's a little more expected. Having Andy Dalton under center last week sparked the passing game to life, but the defense couldn't stop Seattle's running game – or, for that matter, a New Orleans running game the week before led by Tony Jones and Taysom Hill, or Atlanta's in Week 1. Bryce Young will be back this week, which figures to make it even harder for Carolina to mount a comeback if the team falls into an early hole, but Frank Reich knew what he was signing up for and isn't going to turn back to Dalton for a quick fix. The Panthers will take their lumps this season, let Young develop and add more pieces around him in next year's draft. Of course, the Bears hold their first-round pick in 2024 as a result of the trade to get Young in the first place. Whoops.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
CAR injuries: RB Miles Sanders (questionable, groin), WR Jonathan Mingo (questionable, concussion), LB Shaq Thompson (IR, lower leg), LB Frankie Luvu (questionable, hip)

MIN DFS targets: Alexander Mattison $5,800 DK / $7,200 FD (CAR 32nd in rushing DVOA, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed)
CAR DFS targets: DJ Chark $4,000 DK / $6,000 FD (MIN 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

MIN DFS fades: none
CAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: Cousins is 2-0 against CAR as a Viking with a 6:0 TD:INT, 680 passing yards and a 72.0 percent completion rate in two starts

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the high 70s, 9-10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mattison piles up 90 yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for 320 yards and three scores, two to T.J. Hockenson and one to Jefferson (who tops 100 yards). Sanders leads the CAR backfield with 60 yards. Young throws for 220 yards and two TDs, finding Chark and Adam Thielen. Vikings 28-23

Denver at Chicago (+3), o/u 46 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Say what you want about Nathaniel Hackett's disastrous time in Denver, but his team never gave up 70 points in a game. There aren't really many lessons to be drawn from last week's loss beyond, "Dang, them Dolphins are fast", but I'm not yet ruling out the conspiracy theory that Sean Payton decided after a few days of working with Russell Wilson that he was going to do everything he could to get the Broncos to Collapse for Caleb, even if he's the only one in on the scheme. (Wilson's contract is basically undumpable until at least 2026, by the way.) Why else would he have let promising young defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero bolt for Carolina? Why else would he have brought in Wil Lutz, who'd spent his entire career under a roof in New Orleans, if not to shank a key kick or two like he did in his first game in Denver? This franchise is being bled like a stuffed pig Mac, and I got a paper trail to prove it. Or maybe they just had a couple bad breaks early in Payton's tenure, and a couple wins against the Bears and Jets to kick off October will calm everything down.

Speaking of Collapsing for Caleb... Chicago's lost six straight games by double-digit margins dating back to Week 16 last season, and lost 13 straight in total, with the offense gaining fewer yards each week to kick off 2023 and the defense giving up more yards each week. Things are getting bleak. There's nothing Justin Fields can do on the ground to make his poor passing stats look better, but with Nathan Peterman as his backup, there's no Plan B for Matt Eberflus. The Bears do have what looks like two likely early selections in the first round next year, as they also have the Panthers' top pick in their pockets, so Fields is almost certainly on borrowed time even if they don't end up with the worst record. Until then though, the team will probably just keep spinning its wheels.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: WR Jerry Jeudy (questionable, knee), TE Greg Dulcich (IR, hamstring), LB Josey Jewell (questionable, groin), S Justin Simmons (questionable, hip)
CHI injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DEN DFS targets: Wilson $5,800 DK / $7,500 FD (CHI 31st in passing DVOA, 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPA allowed), Samaje Perine $4,700 DK / $5,100 FD (CHI 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB)
CHI DFS targets: Fields $6,600 DK / $7,200 FD (DEN 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in YPA allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Khalil Herbert $7,800 DK / $5,800 FD and Roschon Johnson $4,900 DK / $5,300 FD (DEN 30th in rushing DVOA, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPC allowed, t-31st in rushing TDs allowed), DJ Moore $5,600 DK / $6,100 FD (DEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Chase Claypool $3,200 DK / $5,300 FD (DEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

DEN DFS fades: none
CHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: DEN is 24th in third-down conversions at 34.3 percent; CHI is 32nd in third-down defense at 60.0 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Javonte Williams gains 70 yards and a TD, while Perine also catches a touchdown pass. Wilson throws for 250 yards and a second score to Courtland Sutton. Herbert leads the CHI backfield with 70 yards. Fields runs for one TD and tosses another to Moore, throwing for under 200 yards. Broncos 24-20

Baltimore (+2.5) at Cleveland, o/u 41 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

As per usual, the AFC North looks like it will be a brutal fight to the death. The Ravens missed a chance to take an early lead at 3-0 by coming up short in OT against the Colts last week, but they also barely beat a Bengals squad with a hobbled Joe Burrow, so that might have been the scales just balancing themselves. Injuries have piled up in the backfield and secondary again for Baltimore, but there's still enough talent on both sides of the ball to be competitive. The passing game hasn't been completely unleashed under new OC Todd Monken, but there are encouraging signs – like a 73.3 percent completion rate for Lamar Jackson, more than seven points better than his prior career high. The pieces haven't come together yet, though. Jackson's in the bottom 10 among QBs in both intended air yards per attempt and yards after catch per completion, which isn't exactly a formula for great passing numbers.

The loss of Nick Chubb still looms over the Browns, but a defense that's held two of three opponents to just three points can cover for a lot of issues on the other side of the ball. Deshaun Watson is coming off his best game with Cleveland and has a 9:4 TD:INT over his last five starts dating back to the end of last season, and Kevin Stefanski might have to let his $230 million quarterback start earning his salary, no matter how much he wants to keep to a ground-and-pound philosophy. Amari Cooper's the only one who's really benefited so far from Watson being let loose, but the Browns do have enough receiving talent to become a dangerous aerial offense if they're allowed to.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: RB Justice Hill (questionable, foot), WR Rashod Bateman (questionable, hamstring), WR Odell Beckham (questionable, ankle)
CLE injuries: QB Watson (questionable, shoulder), RB Jerome Ford (questionable, shoulder), RB Kareem Hunt (questionable, ribs)

BAL DFS targets: Ravens DST $3,200 DK / $4,100 FD (CLE t-29th in giveaways, t-26th in sacks allowed)
CLE DFS targets: none

BAL DFS fades: Jackson $7,700 DK / $8,200 FD (CLE first in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, t-1st in passing TDs allowed, first in rushing yards allowed to QB), Hill $4,800 DK / $5,500 FD and Gus Edwards $5,200 DK / $5,900 FD (CLE second in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, second in YPC allowed, t-1st in rushing TDs allowed), Nelson Agholor $3,400 DK / $5,400 FD (CLE third in DVOA vs. WR2), Mark Andrews $5,400 DK / $6,700 FD (CLE second in DVOA vs. TE)
CLE DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 BAL, average score 24-21 BAL, average margin of victory nine points. The home team has won four straight meetings in this rivalry, with neither team scoring more than 24 points in any of those games (average score 17-16 CLE)
Key stat: BAL is fifth in red-zone conversions at 72.7 percent (8-for-11); CLE is first in red-zone defense at 0.0 percent (0-for-2)

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the mid-70s, 8-10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Edwards gets held to 40 yards but does add a touchdown. Jackson throws for under 200 yards and finds Zay Flowers for a score. Ford rumbles for 90 combined yards and a TD. Watson throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Cooper. Browns 23-20

Pittsburgh at Houston (+3), o/u 42 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Steelers are 2-1, but they could just as easily be 0-3. The beat the Browns by four points during the game in which Chubb got hurt, and they beat the Raiders last week by five points when Josh McDaniels decided to kick a field goal while down eight points with less than three minutes left from the Pittsburgh eight-yard line rather than go for it on fourth down to try and tie it up. (His justification was that Vegas "would've needed another possession anyway", which has the advantage of being both inaccurate and dumb.) Mike Tomlin's teams get gifts like that too often to call it luck, but they're still the only AFC North team with a winning record and a negative point differential through three weeks. On the bright side, Kenny Pickett threw multiple TD passes for the very first time in his career Monday night. He hasn't really shown a lot of progress yet, and likely won't in OC Matt Canada's fairly uninspiring scheme, but at least George Pickens looks like a legit WR1.

Houston continued to torment Jacksonville last week, but the Texans lost by double digits in each of their first two games, so let's not get too excited yet. C.J. Stroud has looked like the cream of the 2023 QB crop and has yet to throw an INT, but he's lost two fumbles and been sacked 11 times behind a patchwork offensive line, so the good times can only last so long. Stroud's developed impressive chemistry already with Tank Dell though, and even Robert Woods is looking like he might have something left after all. The quick progress of the Houston offense under first-time OC Bobby Slowik is impressive, and he basically has a dream resume for the analytically-inclined – he spent three years with Pro Football Focus before joining Kyle Shanahan's staff in San Francisco in 2017. DeMeco Ryans was supposed to transform the defense into a 49ers-like unit, but Slowik might get the job done first on the other side of the ball.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: WR Diontae Johnson (IR, hamstring), WR Allen Robinson (questionable, ankle), EDGE Cameron Heyward (IR, groin)
HOU injuries: LB Denzel Perryman (questionable, hand), S Jalen Pitre (questionable, chest)

PIT DFS targets: Najee Harris $5,500 DK / $6,300 FD (HOU 31st in rushing DVOA, t-31st in rushing TDs allowed), Steelers DST $3,900 DK / $4,600 FD (t-2nd in takeaways, first in sacks)
HOU DFS targets: Dameon Pierce $5,100 DK / $6,300 FD (PIT 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 29th in YPC allowed), Robert Woods $4,300 DK / $5,300 FD (PIT 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)

PIT DFS fades: none
HOU DFS fades: Dalton Schultz $3,200 DK / $4,600 FD (PIT first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: HOU is 32nd in red-zone conversions at 27.3 percent (3-for-11); PIT is t-19th in red-zone defense at 62.5 percent (5-for-8)

The Scoop: Harris gains 60 yards, while Jaylen Warren catches a TD pass. Pickett throws for 210 yards and a second score to Pat Freiermuth. Pierce manages 40 yards. Stroud gets sacked five more times, but still throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Woods and Nico Collins. Will Anderson recovers a Harris fumble and returns it to the house for what proves to be the winning score. Texans 21-17

L.A. Rams (+1.5) at Indianapolis, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

If you had told Rams fans before the season started that they would begin 2023 by thumping the Seahawks and losing by single scores to the 49ers and Bengals, they probably would have taken it happily. Nonetheless, the team's 1-2 start feels like a bit of a missed opportunity. Matthew Stafford has thrown multiple picks in back-to-back games after looking like he'd turned back the clock in Week 1, and the emergence of Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, and to a lesser extent Tutu Atwell, hasn't turned the offense back into a juggernaut or restored Sean McVay's reputation as a boy genius. The defense has been surprisingly solid though, even if it's only generated one turnover and five sacks so far – only the Broncos, Giants and Bears have lower combined totals in those categories. The Rams feel like a team that will spoil the playoff chances for a team or two before the season is done, but they aren't a real threat to the Niners in the NFC West, or even a likely wild-card squad.

At 2-1, the Colts are atop the AFC South after stealing an OT win in Baltimore last week. It was only Gardner Minshew's ninth win as a starter in his career, even if it feels like he should have more (that's the power of great facial hair), but it could be his last for a while as Anthony Richardson should be back under center this week. The rookie QB has three rushing TDs in essentially five quarters of action to begin his NFL career, but after dodging a serious knee injury in Week 1 and getting knocked out of a Week 2 win over the Texans with a concussion, coach Shane Steichen may have to re-evaluate how much he wants to let the kid run. Fortunately he has options, as Zack Moss has been outstanding as the lead back the last two weeks, amassing 210 yards on the ground with one TD and chipping in six catches and another score through the air. That's maybe not "make it really easy to move on from Jonathan Taylor" good, but it's still pretty good, especially while working behind a banged-u p offensive line that's seen better days.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: WR Cooper Kupp (IR, hamstring), WR Nacua (questionable, oblique), TE Tyler Higbee (questionable, Achilles)
IND injuries: QB Richardson (questionable, concussion), RB Taylor (PUP, ankle), DT DeForest Buckner (questionable, groin)

LAR DFS targets: Atwell $5,500 DK / $6,300 FD (IND 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)
IND DFS targets: none

LAR DFS fades: none
IND DFS fades: Josh Downs $3,500 DK / $5,400 FD (LAR fifth in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: IND is t-7th in red-zone conversions at 66.7 percent (6-for-9); LAR are t-19th in red-zone defense at 62.5 percent (5-for-8)

The Scoop: Williams gains 60 yards and a score. Stafford throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, finding Atwell and Davis Allen. Moss rolls for 80 yards and a TD. Richardson starts and throws for under 200 yards, but he runs for 50 and hits Michael Pittman and Kylen Granson for scores. Colts 24-21

Tampa Bay (+3) at New Orleans, o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The actual game here is just the undercard to the Mike Evans-Marshon Lattimore main event, of course. I wish more players had full-on blood feuds, to be honest. There's too much camaraderie in the NFL these days. The Bucs' 2-1 start feels like it tells us absolutely nothing about them – the teams they beat (the Vikes and Bears) are 0-3, while the team that beat them is 3-0, and in each case the final result reflects more on the state of Tampa's opponent. Baker Mayfield's numbers are slightly better than he managed with either Carolina or the Rams in 2022, but still decidedly meh, and Rachaad White's been nothing special either as the lead back. The defense has been stingy, even containing Jalen Hurts through the air, but it may be a mirage – the Bucs rank 27th in yards per play allowed at 5.61.

The Saints shelled out $150 million in the offseason to sign Derek Carr on the presumption that he's a big upgrade on Jameis Winston, and I guess we'll get an idea this week if that's accurate. Carr only had a 2:2 TD:INT before injuring his shoulder last week, but to be fair, Winston will have the benefit of Alvin Kamara in the backfield behind him, something Carr hasn't experienced yet. The 28-year-old RB is coming off the worst season of his career and still averaged over 90 scrimmage yards a game in 2022, and he adds an element to the offense that none of Jamaal Williams, Kendre Miller, Tony Jones or Taysom Hill could provide. New Orleans' defense has been mostly elite to begin the season, aside from the last eight minutes or so last week at Lambeau Field, and even then the Saints should have won that game – if Kamara's presence can get the offense to at least average, they should run away with the NFC South.

The Skinny

TB injuries: LB Devin White (questionable, foot)
NO injuries: QB Carr (questionable, shoulder), RB Williams (IR, hamstring)

TB DFS targets: none
NO DFS targets: Rashid Shaheed $4,000 DK / $5,800 FD (TB 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

TB DFS fades: Evans $7,000 DK / $8,000 FD (NO first in DVOA vs. WR1)
NO DFS fades: Michael Thomas $5,200 DK / $5,900 FD (TB first in DVOA vs. WR2)

Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 7-4 NO, average score 27-20 NO, average margin of victory 12 points. The regular-season series has been a sweep each of the last four years, with TB winning both games in 2022 and NO sweeping the three years prior
Key stat: TB is 30th in red-zone conversions at 37.5 percent (3-for-8); NO is t-3rd in red-zone defense at 33.3 percent (3-for-9)

The Scoop: White ekes out 40 yards. Mayfield throws for 200 yards and a TD to Deven Thompkins. Kamara jets for 70 combined yards and a score. Winston throws for under 200 yards but hits Chris Olave for a touchdown. Saints 17-16

Washington (+8) at Philadelphia, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

I'm not sure I'm ever seen a team put in its place as thoroughly as the Commanders were last week. The Bills looked at their 2-0 record and spat on it, dominating every facet of the contest, and Washington literally only avoided getting shut out at the last minute (Joey Slye booted a 51-yard field goal with 46 seconds left.) Sam Howell got sacked nine times and picked off four times, and the only reason Josh Allen didn't pick apart the Commanders' secondary is because he didn't have to, as the Bills' running game were buffaloing like a bunch of Buffalo buffalo. That bodes poorly for this week, given the makeup of their opponents. Brian Robinson has at least been consistently solid through three games, but Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson are still waiting for things to fully click with their young QB.

After surviving the Patriots in Week 1 and almost blowing it against the Vikings in Week 2, the Eagles look like a legit Super Bowl contender again in Week 3. The backfield firmly belongs to D'Andre Swift after he erupted for 305 rushing yards over the last couple weeks, and I have to admit I'm rooting for the Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift relationship to last until late November just for the chaos potential of that Week 11 clash between the Philly Swifties and the KC Swifties, but Kenneth Gainwell seems to keep getting significant workloads when he's healthy, while Rashaad Penny is, in theory anyway, still on the roster too. Jalen Hurts has run for as many TDs as he's thrown so far, but his completion percentage has ticked up another notch and he's fourth in intended air yards per attempt. The only other QB in 2023 with that combination of accuracy and willingness to attack deep is Tua Tagovailoa, so the production should follow soon enough.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: TE Logan Thomas (questionable, concussion)
PHI injuries: WR DeVonta Smith (questionable, illness), WR Quez Watkins (questionable, hamstring)

WAS DFS targets: Thomas $3,100 DK / $5,000 FD (PHI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)
PHI DFS targets: Olamide Zaccheaus $3,300 DK / $5,200 FD (WAS 30th in DVOA vs. WR3), Eagles DST $4,100 DK / $5,000 FD (t-2nd in takeaways, WAS 31st in giveaways, 32nd in sacks allowed)

WAS DFS fades: Robinson $5,600 DK / $6,700 FD (PHI first in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, t-1st in rushing TDs allowed)
PHI DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 PHI, average score 24-19 PHI, average margin of victory 11 points. The road team has won three straight meetings and four of the last five in this rivalry
Key stat: PHI is t-5th in third-down conversions at 46.5 percent; WAS is 20th in third-down defense at 41.5 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the mid-70s, 9-10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Robinson manages 50 yards. Howell throws for 220 yards and a score to Thomas but gets picked off twice and sacked four times. Swift romps for 120 combined yards and two touchdown. Hurts throws for 260 yards and two TDs of his own, finding A.J. Brown and Zaccheaus. Eagles 31-17

Cincinnati at Tennessee (+2.5), o/u 41 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Joe Burrow still doesn't look quite right, but when your backup is Jake Browning, it's a lot easier to justify playing through an injury. The Bengals saved themselves from disaster Monday night and avoided an 0-3 start, but now they get a tough, physical opponent on the road on a short week and aren't out of the woods yet. The franchise QB has a 2:2 TD:INT through three games, and while Ja'Marr Chase was able to go off in Week 3 and Tee Higgins hauled in two TDs in Week 2, it could be a while before Burrow is fit enough to feed them both at the same time. The defense also seemed to get back on track against the Rams, and they've been a crucial but overlooked component in the Bengals' recent success. The season is far from over for Cincy, with three winnable games ahead of a Week 7 bye, but the team's margin for error is a lot slimmer while Burrow is less than 100 percent.

The Titans are also 1-2 and could easily be 0-3, as they needed OT to beat the Bolts in Week 2. Last week's loss to the Browns was basically a worst-case scenario, as Derrick Henry couldn't get anything going and Ryan Tannehill increasingly looks like a guy who can't get it going any more. Adding talent at wide receiver doesn't matter if the QB needs more time than he's getting in the pocket, and while it's easy to blame the offensive line for Tannehill's 13 sacks through three games, he's not getting rid of the ball particularly quickly. That was acceptable when Henry was trampling defenders into the mud and softening them up, but that hasn't been the case yet in 2023, and those days might be gone – the RB has just 0.04 rush yards over expected per carry. Before his 2021 foot injury, he was routinely averaging about a yard above expected per tote and sat among the league leaders in 2019 and 2020.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries (on the report, anyway)
TEN injuries: WR DeAndre Hopkins (questionable, ankle), WR Treylon Burks (questionable, knee)

CIN DFS targets: Chase $7,800 DK / $8,200 FD (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
TEN DFS targets: Henry $7,000 DK / $8,000 FD (CIN 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 28th in YPC allowed), Chigoziem Okonkwo $3,100 DK / $4,700 FD (CIN 29th in DVOA vs. TE)

CIN DFS fades: Joe Mixon $6,400 DK / $7,400 FD (TEN third in rushing DVOA, first in YPC allowed)
TEN DFS fades: Hopkins $5,800 DK / $6,300 FD (CIN second in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: TEN is 30th in third-down conversions at 27.0 percent; CIN is t-13th in third-down defense at 35.9 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mixon grinds out 40 yards. Burrow throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, both to Chase. Henry collects 60 yards and a score. Tannehill throws for under 200 yards. Bengals 20-16

LATE SUNDAY

Las Vegas (+6) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

I already talked about it above, but how does Josh McDaniels keep his job after last week's debacle? At the very least, he needs someone to babysit him when it comes to making crucial "should we go for it?" decisions. It wasn't even a difficult call. You have the ball inside the other team's 10-yard line, and can pick up a first down on fourth-and-4 even if you don't get into the end zone. You need eight points – a touchdown and two-point conversion. There's less than three minutes left in the game, and if you give up the ball after a field goal you probably aren't getting it back. Even if you do, it'll be after a punt that puts you a lot farther from the goal line than you are right now, and with a lot less time on the clock. And if you blow it on fourth down, you've got Pittsburgh pinned deep, so that theoretical "second possession" you harped on after the loss should start at a better spot on the field, not to mention the slight chance of a defensive TD on a pick or fumble or even a safety against a QB making his 16th career start. You do still have Maxx Crosby, right? Like, buddy. C'mon now. The Raiders could, and arguably should, be 0-3 but stole a win in Denver in Week 1, and now they get to face one of the few other teams in the NFL as good as them at losing to anyone, any time, anywhere, and in the goofiest possible way. Jimmy Garoppolo may not be under center, but Davante Adams won't care who's throwing the ball to him and Vegas will sort of have to rely on the Chargers blowing it anyway, so sure, let's give Brian Hoyer his annual start (last year's with the Patriots also came in Week 4), or heck, let's see if Aidan O'Connell's preseason was in any way legit. It probably won't matter all that much.

The Chargers escaped an 0-3 start last week against the Vikings, but their schedule doesn't suggest the playoffs are in their future unless they really turn things around. They host Dallas then head to KC after their Week 5 bye, and the only soft spots on their slate look like a Week 8 meeting with the Bears and their two divisional clashes with the Broncos. (The Jets might even have a real QB by the time Week 9 rolls around, and their defense is tough regardless.) Last week's win came at a cost, as Mike Williams is done for the season due to a torn ACL. Austin Ekeler isn't 100 percent yet too, but Justin Herbert still has plenty of weapons – Donald Parham even looks like he's becoming the red-zone weapon he was expected to be – but this year's first-round pick, Quentin Johnston, has a golden opportunity in front of him to take on Williams' role as the big-bodied downfield target. The offense will need to keep humming, though, as the Chargers' banged-up defense somehow gave up 27 points to the Titans.

The Skinny

LV injuries: QB Garoppolo (questionable, concussion), EDGE Crosby (questionable, knee)
LAC injuries: RB Ekeler (questionable, ankle), WR Williams (IR, knee), TE Gerald Everett (questionable, illness), EDGE Joey Bosa (questionable, hamstring), LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, hamstring), S Derwin James (questionable, hamstring)

LV DFS targets: Garoppolo $5,300 DK / $6,900 FD (LAC 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed), Adams $8,000 DK / $8,100 FD (LAC 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), Hunter Renfrow $3,700 DK / $5,100 FD (LAC 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)
LAC DFS targets: Keenan Allen $7,900 DK / $9,500 FD (LV 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), Joshua Palmer $4,000 DK / $6,100 FD or Johnston $3,700 DK / $5,200 FD (LV 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

LV DFS fades: Raiders DST $2,300 DK / $3,000 FD (t-31st in takeaways, LAC t-1st in giveaways)
LAC DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 25-22 LAC, average margin of victory eight points. The home team has won four straight meetings, while seven of the last eight games in this rivalry have been decided by a single score
Key stat: LAC are t-7th in red-zone conversions at 66.7 percent (8-for-12); LV is t-27th in red-zone defense at 72.7 percent (8-for-11)

The Scoop: Josh Jacobs picks up 50 yards and his first TD of the year. Garoppolo plays and throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Adams and Jakobi Meyers. Joshua Kelly starts for LAC and manages 60 yards and a score. Herbert throws for 330 yards and three TDs, finding Allen (who tops 100 yards) twice and Johnston once. Chargers 34-21

New England (+7) at Dallas, o/u 43 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Weirdly, of all the teams in the NFL, the Patriots are the ones who have been exactly who I thought they were (RIP Dennis Green.) The defense has been stingy and tough to move the ball against, holding both the Eagles and Dolphins to 25 points or less before giving Zach Wilson a miserable afternoon. The offense has also been under-powered as Mac Jones tries to erase all the bad habits he picked up last year, averaging 17.3 points through three weeks. There are no saviors coming off the IR for this team, no sudden breakouts that will elevate the attack; their only path to a win is via a low-scoring battle in which New England simply wants it more than the other guys. (Truth be told, this is probably who they always would have been had they not stumbled into a future Hall of Fame quarterback with the 199th pick in the 2000 draft.) That might be how Bill Belichick likes it – and bettors who love hammering the under – but it's not very conducive to fantasy value, on either side of the ball.

People joke a lot about how the Chargers and Vikings and Raiders make a habit of doing less with more, but nobody pulls an Icarus like the Cowboys. At least once a year, it seems like they soar with the Super Bowl contenders for a short stretch before crashing down into the sea in spectacular fashion, and no matter what the coach says (whoever the coach is that year) about lessons learned and wake-up calls, the pattern will inevitably repeat itself. I don't know whether Dallas just headed into Arizona last week feeling all fat and sassy after thumping the Giants and Jets, or were caught looking ahead on the schedule past a team that got written off as part of the tank brigade before Week 1, but whatever the cause of last week's disaster was, their wings melted awfully fast this season. The wild thing is, even after that debacle against the Cardinals, the Cowboys are still tied with the Niners for the best point different in the NFC. Getting the offensive line healthy again would help restore the offense's luster, but that's true for a dozen teams around the league. The bigger worry should be what Belichick and his staff are going to learn from the game film against Arizona about how to attack Dan Quinn's defense.

The Skinny

NE injuries: WR Tyquan Thornton (IR, shoulder)
DAL injuries: CB Trevon Diggs (IR, knee)

NE DFS targets: none
DAL DFS targets: none

NE DFS fades: Jones $5,200 DK / $6,800 FD (DAL third in passing DVOA, second in passing yards per game allowed), DeVante Parker $4,000 DK / $5,300 FD (DAL third in DVOA vs. WR1), JuJu Smith-Schuster $3,900 DK / $5,400 FD (DAL second in DVOA vs. WR3)
DAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: DAL is t-2nd in third-down conversions at 51.1 percent; NE is third in third-down defense at 27.0 percent

The Scoop: Rhamondre Stevenson leads the NE backfield with 60 yards, but Ezekiel Elliott gets a revenge touchdown. Jones throws for under 200 yards and hits Kendrick Bourne for a score. Tony Pollard racks up 110 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Dak Prescott throws for 240 yards and a second score to Brandin Cooks. Cowboys 27-17

Arizona (+14) at San Francisco, o/u 44 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

You have to give Jonathan Gannon a lot of credit for the Cardinals' start. Whatever he's selling, the team is buying right now, even if from outside the locker room he seems a bit sketchy. An offense led by Joshua Dobbs – who didn't join the roster until about two weeks before the season started, remember – has scored 28 points in back-to-back weeks, and a defense that's been stripped of parts since 2022 has held two of three opponents to 20 points or less. I'm skeptical it will last, and teams will figure out how to turn their aggressive, give-no-effs approach against them soon enough, but at least for now they can't be considered a pushover.

The 49ers have been nothing but consistent, posting 30 points in three straight games and against some opponents, like the Steelers, that in theory might have been able to slow them down. This is probably the best a Kyle Shanahan offense will ever look. He's got multiple uncoverable, nearly interchangeable players at his disposal he can move around the formation wherever he wants and force the defense into making impossible decisions with too little information. Who's the ball going to this time? The formation won't give you any hints. Christian McCaffrey? Maybe Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk? George Kittle's always looming, or perhaps it's Kyle Juszczyk's turn to score one of his annual out-of-nowhere touchdowns. Elijah Mitchell is the backup RB and averaged 6.2 yards per carry in 2022. I haven't even gotten around to a defense that's only going to get better as Nick Bosa gets up to speed. Good luck, rest of the NFL.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: QB Kyler Murray (PUP, knee), WR Marquise Brown (questionable, thumb), S Budda Baker (IR, hamstring)
SF injuries: WR Samuel (questionable, ribs), WR Aiyuk (questionable, shoulder), WR Jauan Jennings (questionable, shin), LB Dre Greenlaw (questionable, ankle)

ARI DFS targets: none
SF DFS targets: none

ARI DFS fades: Michael Wilson $3,500 DK / $4,900 FD (SF second in DVOA vs. WR2), Zach Ertz $3,200 DK / $5,000 FD (SF third in DVOA vs. TE)
SF DFS fades: Aiyuk $6,200 DK / $7,600 FD (ARI fourth in DVOA vs. WR2)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 24-20 SF, average margin of victory 11 points. ARI has scored 17 points or less in four of the last five meetings
Key stat: SF is 11th in third-down conversions at 44.7 percent; ARI is 29th in third-down defense at 50.0 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the low 70s, 10-15 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: James Conner churns out 80 yards and a score. Dobbs throws for under 200 yards but runs for 50 and tosses a TD to Rondale Moore. CMac fires up 120 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Brock Purdy throws for 280 yards and two more scores, one each to Aiyuk and Kittle. 49ers 31-20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Kansas City at N.Y. Jets (+9.5), o/u 42 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

Nothing like a game against the Bears to fix whatever was wrong with the Kansas City offense. There wasn't really much cause for alarm after the defending champs scored just 37 points through the first two weeks, but getting the first 40-burger out of the way is always nice. The impressive thing about K.C. so far has been the play of the defense, especially considering Chris Jones' holdout. The team's given up only 40 total points through three games, less than the offense scored in Week 3, and only the Browns, Bills and Cowboys have allowed fewer first downs than the team wearing red, gold and white. What, you thought I'd do this write-up without mentioning Taylor, after watching sparks fly between her and Travis Kelce? That was never, ever, ever going to happen.

Is this the beginning of the end for Zach Wilson? The Jets just added Trevor Siemian to the practice squad, and while he isn't very good and will need a couple weeks to get up to speed on the offense, at the very least he would probably give the offense a better floor, and give the defense the feeling that their efforts actually matter and aren't being taken for granted. I don't really buy all the "Robert Saleh is losing the locker room!" bloviating from people whose livelihoods depend on riling up fans – these are the same folks who thought Jonathan Gannon had lost the Cards locker room before the season even began, after all – but Wilson clearly isn't the guy to get the Jets to the playoffs. And let's be clear, a wild-card spot is still in play for New York given their remaining schedule. At some point they'll have to unleash Breece Hall, though. Sixteen carries for 27 yards in two games after that Week 1 eruption against the Bills is coaching malpractice by... wait, who's their OC again? Oh yeah, Nathaniel Hackett, a guy who knows a thing or two about coaching malpractice. Wanting Hall to be 100 percent late in the year is nice and all, but he looked fine the first time he hit the field this season, and holding him back too long is just going to ensure your games don't matter in December.

The Skinny

KC injuries: WR Kadarius Toney (questionable, toe), LB Nick Bolton (questionable, ankle)
NYJ injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

KC DFS targets: Kelce $7,400 DK / $7,800 FD (NYJ 30th in DVOA vs. TE)
NYJ DFS targets: none

KC DFS fades: Marquez Valdes-Scantling $4,100 DK / $5,100 FD (NYJ fifth in DVOA vs. WR2)
NYJ DFS fades: Randall Cobb $3,000 DK / $5,000 FD (KC fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: KC is third in red-zone conversions at 75.0 percent (9-for-12); NYJ is t-5th in red-zone defense at 37.5 percent (3-for-8)

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Isiah Pacheco leads the KC backfield with 70 yards and a TD. Patrick Mahomes throws for 350 yards and three touchdowns, two to Kelce (who tops 100 yards) and one to Skyy Moore. Hall gets held to 50 yards. Wilson throws for under 200 yards and a score to Tyler Conklin while getting picked off twice and sacked four times. Kansas City 34-13

THURSDAY NIGHT

Detroit at Green Bay (+1), o/u 46 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The Lions took care of business last week, shutting down the Falcons' running game (which is the Falcons' entire offense) and giving Jahmyr Gibbs a chance to settle into the No. 1 role in the backfield, at least for one afternoon. With David Montgomery sidelined, Gibbs saw more carries in Week 3 than he had in his first two NFL games combined and looked quite good, with his 21-yard scamper early in the fourth quarter being the longest the Atlanta defense has given up so far this season. Montgomery could be back for this one, but Dan Campbell has to realize Gibbs is his better option. Use Montgomery to wear down defenses early if you must, Dan, but Gibbs' three longest runs last week all came in the second half, and the kid should be your closer.

The Packers should have lost last week, but Saints rookie kicker Blake Grupe missed a 46-yard FG attempt with just over a minute left to preserve Green Bay's one-point win. Jordan Love earned that victory though with an absolutely clutch performance — the QB ran for the Packers' first TD of the day midway through the fourth quarter, hit Samori Toure for a two-point conversion, then found Romeo Doubs for an eight-yard touchdown on the next possession to complete a comeback from a 17-point deficit. Love's produced multiple TDs in all three games, and while his 53.1 percent completion percentage is a little worrying, he's working with a very young group of targets that has been missing its theoretical top option in Christian Watson, and no QB in the league has a bigger gap between his completion percentage and his expected completion percentage.

The Skinny

DET injuries: RB Montgomery (questionable, thigh), WR Jameson Williams (out, suspension)
GB injuries: RB Jones (questionable, hamstring), WR Watson (questionable, hamstring), LB De'Vondre Campbell (out, ankle)

DET DFS targets: Gibbs $6,600 DK / $6,700 FD (GB 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,800 DK / $8,000 FD (GB 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)
GB DFS targets: none

DET DFS fades: Kalif Raymond $3,400 DK / $5,400 FD (GB third in DVOA vs. WR3)
GB DFS fades: Aaron Jones $6,800 DK / $7,500 FD and AJ Dillon $5,600 DK / $5,900 FD (DET fifth in rushing DVOA, fifth in rushing yards per game allowed, fifth in YPC allowed)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 24-23 DET, average margin of victory 11 points. DET has won three straight meetings, including a 20-16 victory at Lambeau Field in Week 18 of last season
Key stat: GB is second in red-zone conversions at 77.8 percent (7-for-9); DET is t-22nd in red-zone defense at 66.7 percent (6-for-9)

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Montgomery plays and scores a touchdown but Gibbs leads the DET backfield with 90 yards and also catches a TD. Jared Goff throws for 240 yards and a second score to St. Brown. Jones also plays and leads the GB backfield with 60 yards. Love throws for 320 yards and three TDs, two to Doubs and one to Luke Musgrave, and a Keisean Nixon kickoff return to the house proves to be the difference. Packers 28-27

Last week's record: 10-6, 9-7 ATS, 10-6 o/u
2023 record: 28-20, 24-22-2 ATS, 30-17-1 o/u