NFL Game Previews: Ravens-Saints Matchup

Baltimore at New Orleans (+2.5), o/u 48 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The Ravens made their intentions clear by trading for Roquan Smith rather than adding receiving help for Lamar Jackson. They're going to try to win on defense, and whatever points the offense can scrape together is just a bonus. That decision looked a lot iffier when Rashod Bateman got ruled out for the season two days after the trade deadline, but hey, there's always Odell Beckham. Baltimore's climbed to the top of the AFC North by winning three of its last four, and like a lot of Giants' opponents this season, the coaching staff's probably still scratching its head trying to figure out how they lost the fourth one. Smith joins a defense that's been getting healthier and stingier on the back end, and while the front seven features a lot of past-their-prime veterans like Justin Houston and Calais Campbell, Roquan could be exactly the kind of linebacker who can tie it all together and take the unit to elite status after a Week 10 bye.

The Saints are far from out of it in the NFC South at 3-5, but the team still doesn't seem quite right. Maybe it's the fact that Andy Dalton appears to be their best option at QB, or all the injuries to the wideout group, or even a defense that went from allowing 30-plus points in three consecutive games to shutting out the Raiders. (I'm going to pin that last one on Vegas more anything New Orleans did differently.) Whatever area of the roster you choose to focus on, it's impossible to get a read on it. The exception of course is the backfield, where Alvin Kamara is back to doing Kamara things now that he's healthy. He's got 581 scrimmage yards in the last four games, and last week he finally got into the end zone for the first time this season — then liked it so much, he did it twice more. The star running back gives New Orleans a weapon Baltimore simply doesn't have, but I don't trust the Saints' defense to contain Lamar either, leaving me with no choice but to expect some wild offensive shenanigans Monday night.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: RB J.K. Dobbins (IR, knee), RB Gus Edwards (questionable, hamstring), WR Bateman (IR, foot), WR Demarcus Robinson (questionable, groin), TE Mark Andrews (questionable, shoulder), CB Marcus Peters (questionable, quadriceps), CB Kyle Fuller (IR, knee), S Marcus Williams (IR, wrist)
NO injuries: RB Mark Ingram (doubtful, knee), WR Jarvis Landry (questionable, ankle), WR Michael Thomas (IR, toe), LT Trevor Penning (IR, toe), C Erik McCoy (questionable, shoulder), CB Marshon Lattimore (questionable, abdomen), CB Bradley Roby (IR, ankle)

BAL DFS targets: James Proche $3,800 DK / $5,000 FD (NO 29th in DVOA vs. WR3), Ravens DST $4,800 DK / $9,500 FD (third in takeaways, NO t-31st in giveaways)
NO DFS targets: none

BAL DFS fades: Andrews $9,600 DK / $13,500 FD and Isaiah Likely $5,800 DK / $7,500 FD (NO first in DVOA vs. TE)
NO DFS fades: none

Key stat: NO eighth in red-zone conversions at 64.3 percent; BAL 23rd in red-zone defense at 61.3 percent

The Scoop: Kenyan Drake leads the BAL backfield with 90 combined yards and a TD. Jackson throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Proche while running for 50 yards and a score of his own. Kamara erupts for 130 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, while Taysom Hill vultures a red-zone score. Dalton throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting Chris Olave and Tre'Quan Smith. Saints 31-30

L.A. Chargers at Atlanta (+3), o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

If the playoffs were starting this week the Chargers would somehow have a wild-card spot at 4-3, but they wouldn't exactly be heading into the postseason with momentum. Prior to their bye, they needed OT to get past the Broncos before getting thumped by the Seahawks, and both of those games came at home — though to be fair, they're 11-10 overall at SoFi Stadium, so it's more just the building they happen to play in than a true home. Injuries remain the Bolts' biggest issue. Every key skill player on offense has either missed time or played a game less than 100 percent healthy, while the defense is missing its best pass rusher and expensive free-agent cornerback. From that perspective, just being above .500 is something of an accomplishment, but Justin Herbert is going to have to figure out how to do more with less if they're going to stay afloat. Over the last three games, he's managed just a 3:2 TD:INT and a 5.3 YPA. Fun fact (well, not if you're a Chargers fan): that stretch marks the first time in his career he's gone three consecutive games without a completion of 40 yards or more.

Maybe facing one of the worst secondaries in the league will help. The Falcons would also be a surprise playoff team if the postseason started this week, but not by some half-assed backdoor wild-card sport, no sirree. Atlanta is currently leading the NFC South at a robust, uhh, 4-4, thanks to an overtime win over the Panthers that didn't exactly help make the Falcons' case that they're legit. Marcus Mariota did finally remember he has Kyle Pitts on his team last week, which is nice, but that's come at the cost of forgetting he has Drake London. Coach Arthur Smith wants this to be a running team, though, and on that front Cordarrelle Patterson could return with an encouraging week of practice. Chewing up clock might be the only sure way to keep the DBs from getting torched — Jimmy Garoppolo's the only quarterback not to throw for at least 300 yards against them in the last four weeks, and he had 296.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: WR Keenan Allen (out, hamstring), WR Mike Williams (out, ankle), WR DeAndre Carter (questionable, illness), LT Rashawn Slater (IR, biceps), K Dustin Hopkins (out, hamstring), DE Jerry Tillery (out, back), EDGE Joey Bosa (IR, groin), CB J.C. Jackson (IR, knee)
ATL injuries: RB Patterson (IR-R, knee), RB Damien Williams (IR, ribs), LG Elijah Wilkinson (out, knee), LG Jalen Mayfield (IR, back), CB A.J. Terrell (out, hamstring), CB Casey Hayward (IR, shoulder)

LAC DFS targets: Herbert $7,200 DK / $7,800 FD (ATL 30th in passing DVOA, 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPA allowed, t-26th in passing TDs allowed), DeAndre Carter $4,300 DK / $5,500 FD (ATL 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)
ATL DFS targets: Tyler Allgeier $5,400 DK / $6,400 FD and Caleb Huntley $4,900 DK / $6,000 FD (LAC 27th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed), Damiere Byrd $3,500 DK / $5,400 FD (LAC 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

LAC DFS fades: none
ATL DFS fades: Olamide Zaccheaus $3,600 DK / $5,200 FD (LAC third in DVOA vs. WR2), Falcons DST $2,800 DK / $3,100 FD (t-29th in sacks, LAC first in sacks allowed, t-3rd in giveaways)

Key stat: LAC t-13th in third-down conversions at 40.6 percent; ATL 30th in third-down defense at 47.1 percent

The Scoop: Ekeler picks up 80 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Herbert throws for 320 yards and three TDs, hitting Palmer, Carter and Gerald Everett. Patterson isn't quite ready, so Allgeier leads the ATL backfield with 60 yards while Huntley adds 50 yards and a score. Mariota throws for 230 yards and two TDs, finding London and Pitts in the same game for the first time. Chargers 28-27

Miami at Chicago (+5), o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Dolphins remain undefeated with Tua Tagovailoa under center for the final snap, going 5-0 with him leading the attack and 0-3 without him for a whole game. He predictably lit up the Lions last week, and so far the only thing that's slowed him is head trauma — in his four starts without some sort of concussion concern, he has a 70.8 percent completion rate, a 9.0 YPA and an 11:2 TD:INT. Miami was also one of the busiest teams at the trade deadline, bringing in Bradley Chubb to bolster the pass rush and swapping out Chase Edmonds for Jeff Wilson to give Raheem Mostert a more reliable backup. Improving the defense will certainly help, but this team will go as far as its passing game will take it.

The 3-5 Bears were also a hub of activity ahead of the deadline, shipping out Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith to gut their front seven, but the timing is a little curious considering the offense has had its two best showings of the season the last two weeks. Maybe the front office sees the same mirage I do, which might also explain bringing in Chase Claypool. The Patriots may not have been prepared to contain Justin Fields two weeks ago, but Chicago also benefited from a lot of short fields (there's a pun there somewhere, I just can't quite find it) created by New England turnovers, and their average drive started at their own 42-yard line. Last week against the Cowboys, the Dallas defense noticeably let up a bit after the team grabbed a 14-0 lead in the first quarter and pretty much let the Bears run the ball in the second half despite Chicago mostly being down by two-plus scores. Hey, when your opponent wants to kill the clock for you, you let them. Matt Eberflus' squad doesn't have a particularly tough schedule for the next month ahead of their Week 14 bye, so it's possible the Bears will still be part of a muddy NFC wild-card race down the stretch at, like, 6-7 or something. Three of their final four are against the Eagles, Bills and Vikings, though, so, yeah, looking ahead to 2023 seems like the right call.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: LT Terron Armstead (questionable, toe), LG Liam Eichenberg (IR, knee), RT Austin Jackson (doubtful, ankle), EDGE Jaelan Phillips (questionable, quadriceps), CB Byron Jones (PUP-R, Achilles), S Brandon Jones (IR, knee), S Eric Rowe (questionable, hip)
CHI injuries: C Doug Kramer (IR, lower leg), C Lucas Patrick (IR, toe)

MIA DFS targets: Mostert $6,100 DK / $6,500 FD (CHI 28th in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 27th in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed)
CHI DFS targets: Fields $5,300 DK / $7,400 FD (MIA 29th in passing DVOA, 28th in YPA allowed, 28th in rushing yards allowed to QB), David Montgomery $6,000 DK / $7,000 FD and Khalil Herbert $5,800 DK / $7,000 FD (MIA t-26th in rushing TDs allowed, 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Equanimeous St. Brown $3,700 DK / $5,200 FD (MIA 27th in DVOA vs. WR3)

MIA DFS fades: Tagovailoa $6,700 DK / $8,000 FD (CHI fifth in passing yards per game allowed, t-3rd in passing TDs allowed)
CHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIA fourth in red-zone conversions at 69.6 percent; CHI t-26th in red-zone defense at 68.0 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 50s, 13-16 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mostert runs for 110 yards and a score. Tua throws for 250 yards and two TDs, finding Tyreek Hill and Mike Gesicki. Montgomery leads the CHI backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving score, while Herbert adds 70 yards. Fields throws for less than 200 yards but runs for 40 and a touchdown. Dolphins 24-20

Carolina (+7.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

I get that folks are excited about the Panthers' sudden brush with respectability. They've had their two best performances of the season on offense the last two weeks, by total yards at least, and the defense held Tom Brady to three measly points in Week 7. Both those games came against NFC South foes, though, and the NFC South has been the worst division in the league to date, so let's see how they do against someone else before putting Steve Wilks in the running for Interim Coach of the Year. I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop with PJ Walker, too. He's posted decent numbers in his three starts, but he really only looks like a star compared to what Baker Mayfield was doing before. D'Onta Foreman's numbers seem much more stable — maybe not the three TDs a game, or even the 118 rushing yards a game, but just in the general sense of him finally becoming the guy it looked like he might become way back in his Texans days. Once Chuba Hubbard gets healthy he'll likely see his share of touches, but there's no reason to think he's a threat to the top job given how Foreman has erupted.

Maybe the most baffling part about the Bengals' no-show against the Browns on Monday was the post-game analysis that attributed it to Ja'Marr Chase's injury, and not Cincy's season-long futility against any defense that could muster a semi-decent pass rush. Myles Garrett was healthy. That was it, really. So far this year, Miami's the only team that hasn't sacked Joe Burrow multiple times, and last week's five sacks brought back memories of the team's 0-2 start against the Steelers and Cowboys, when Burrow was brought down a combined 13 times. Chase being out isn't the problem; it's that the offensive line can't keep its quarterback from being chased, hur hur hur. Cincy gets a Week 10 bye, and if O-line coach Frank Pollack doesn't use that time to figure out how to keep Burrow upright, it could be a frustrating second half for a team with a tough schedule and Super Bowl aspirations.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: QB Sam Darnold (IR-R, ankle), RB Hubbard (out, ankle), C Pat Elflein (IR, hip), CB Donte Jackson (questionable, ankle), S Jeremy Chinn (IR, hamstring)
CIN injuries: WR Chase (out, ), RT La'el Collins (questionable, ), CB Chidobe Awuzie (out, knee), CB Mike Hilton (out, finger)

CAR DFS targets: none
CIN DFS targets: Hayden Hurst $3,600 DK / $5,300 FD (CAR 29th in DVOA vs. TE)

CAR DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: CAR 32nd in third-down conversions at 26.8 percent; CIN 11th in third-down defense at 39.4 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Foreman rumbles for 80 yards. Walker throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Joe Mixon racks up 90 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Burrow has time in the pocket and throws for 320 yards and two more touchdowns, hitting Hurst and Tee Higgins. Bengals 31-9

Green Bay at Detroit (+3.5), o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

I know some folks continue to pay lip service to the idea that Aaron Rodgers can salvage this season, but does anyone actually believe it? He did show a flicker of his old self last week against the Bills, mounting a 95-yard TD drive in the fourth quarter to bring the Packers within 10, but that was after throwing an INT on his first pass of the prior possession and watching Aaron Jones do most of the heavy lifting in the game before that. Rodgers' numbers are still solid, but hardly MVP-worthy — his 6.6 YPA would be his worst showing since he became a starting QB, and he's on pace to fall short of 4,000 passing yards over a full season for the first time since 2015, even with a 17th game. He might even toss double-digit picks for the first time since 2010. At 3-5, Green Bay's not out of the playoff picture yet (the Niners currently sit in a wild-card spot at 4-4), but the team has no margin for error. A three-game stretch in Weeks 10-12, when they play host to the Cowboys and Titans before facing the Eagles on the road, could mean their season is over before December if something doesn't start clicking.

The Lions' season, on the other hand, is going exactly as most expected. They have the worst record in the league at 1-6, and the worst point differential in the NFC at minus-52 points. The defense has yet to give up fewer than 24 points in a game, while the offense has sputtered due to injuries. Turns out Jared Goff wasn't making guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown look like stars, it was the other way around. Who could have guessed? Shipping T.J. Hockenson to the Vikings before he got expensive is as clear a white flag as you'll see, and the Detroit brain trust can now spend the next six months evaluating college QBs. Hopefully for fantasy GMs, they can spend the second half routinely crushing the over, and last week's 31-27 loss to the Dolphins was definitely encouraging on that front. If you're looking for a second-half sleeper or two on this offense, fifth-round rookie tight end James Mitchell could flourish in the absence of Hockenson, while Kalif Raymond is taking advantage of his opportunity to prove he can be more than just a return guy.

The Skinny

GB injuries: WR Allen Lazard (questionable, shoulder), WR Randall Cobb (IR, ankle), WR Christian Watson (questionable, concussion), LT David Bakhtiari (questionable, knee), LG Elgton Jenkins (questionable, knee), LB De'Vondre Campbell (out, knee), EDGE Preston Smith (questionable, shoulder)
DET injuries: RB D'Andre Swift (questionable, ankle), WR Josh Reynolds (doubtful, back), WR DJ Chark (IR, ankle), WR Jameson Williams (NFI-R, knee), WR Quintez Cephus (IR, foot), TE Brock Wright (questionable, concussion), LT Taylor Decker (questionable, groin), RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (IR, back), RG Tommy Kraemer (IR, back), DE Charles Harris (questionable, groin), DE Romeo Okwara (PUP-R, Achilles), S Tracy Walker (IR, Achilles)

GB DFS targets: Rodgers $5,900 DK / $7,000 FD (DET 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in YPA allowed), Jones $7,400 DK / $7,800 FD and AJ Dillon $5,700 DK / $6,100 FD (DET 30th in rushing DVOA, 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 28th in YPC allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed, 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Romeo Doubs $5,300 DK / $6,100 FD (DET 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Robert Tonyan $3,800 DK / $5,000 FD (DET 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)
DET DFS targets: Swift $6,400 DK / $7,500 FD and Jamaal Williams $5,900 DK / $7,500 FD (GB 31st in rushing DVOA, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed)

GB DFS fades: none
DET DFS fades: Raymond $4,000 DK / $5,400 FD (GB second in DVOA vs. WR2), Lions DST $2,600 DK / $3,200 FD (31st in sacks, t-30th in takeaways)

Key stat: GB 13th in red-zone conversions at 59.1 percent; DET 30th in red-zone defense at 73.1 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 27-24 DET, average margin of victory 13 points. GB had won five straight meetings before a 37-30 DET victory in Week 18 of last season, when Jordan Love played the second half

The Scoop: Jones leads the GB backfield with 130 scrimmage yards and a TD, while Dillon adds 60 yards. Rodgers throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, finding Doubs and Tonyan, while also running in a score of his own. Swift plays but Williams has something of a revenge game with 90 combined yards and a TD. Goff throws for 290 yards and two touchdowns, both to St. Brown (who tops 100 yards), but he gets picked off twice. Packers 34-27

Las Vegas at Jacksonville (+1.5), o/u 48 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

There's really not much to say about last week's stinker in New Orleans. The Raiders were so bad, Jarrett Stidham got a look under center for the final drive. Losing shouldn't have been a surprise, though. Vegas' only two wins with Josh McDainels at the helm have come against Houston and Denver, neither of which is exactly a powerhouse. The better Josh, Josh Jacobs, saw his streak of massive games end, but that was as much due to game script as anything else. Davante Adams was the bigger disappointment, as he had his first complete dud of a game in a Raiders uniform — he'd either topped 90 yards or scored a TD, or both, in six consecutive games before last week's miserable three-yard showing. The team was also quiet at the trade deadline, which seems like a missed opportunity to clear out the last dregs of the Mike Mayock regime like Johnathan Abram — I mean, it's not like the defense can get much worse — but I guess new GM Dave Ziegler thinks they can make a wild-card push or something. I look at their remaining schedule and think finishing the season with six wins might be a stretch, but what do I know.

Speaking of teams going nowhere fast, the Jaguars kind of feel like a Jim Steinman song right now. There's a whole lot of colorful characters and frantic, over-the-top action, but you're not entirely sure what the point was by the time the show's over. Jacksonville's dropped five consecutive games, including two to the same Houston and Denver teams that Vegas beat, and while it does have that Week 3 win over the Chargers to hang its helmet on, that feels like a lifetime ago. An offense that averaged 26.3 points through its first four games has failed to top 17 in three of its last four, and the defense that shut out the Colts in Week 2 has coughed up 26 a game over its last three. Those aren't exactly encouraging trends. Travis Etienne has emerged as a dynamic weapon, posting 100-plus scrimmage yards in four straight, but Trevor Lawrence continues to have trouble putting all the pieces together. It's not like there haven't been flashes, but each has either been very good or awful, with nothing in between. The Jags would absolutely settle for a steady hand at QB right now, but that hasn't been Lawrence — he's topped a 70 percent completion rate with a 6:0 TD:INT in three games, and been sub-60 percent with a 4:6 TD:INT in his other five. I'm still willing to excuse him in 2022 while the team as a whole clears out the last of Urban Meyer's cursed mojo, but it would be nice to see the good weeks begin to outnumber the bad in the second half.

The Skinny

LV injuries: TE Darren Waller (questionable, hamstring), LB Divine Deablo (questionable, back), CB Nate Hobbs (IR, hand)
JAC injuries: WR Calvin Ridley (out, suspension), LG Ben Bartch (IR, knee), CB Shaquill Griffin (IR, back)

LV DFS targets: none
JAC DFS targets: Lawrence $5,200 DK / $6,800 FD (LV 31st in passing DVOA, 30th in passing TDs allowed), Zay Jones $4,100 DK / $5,500 FD (LV 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

LV DFS fades: Raiders DST $3,200 DK / $3,500 FD (32nd in sacks, 32nd in takeaways, JAC t-3rd in sacks allowed)
JAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC 12th in third-down conversions at 41.2 percent; LV 29th in third-down defense at 46.0 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, 11 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jacobs bangs out 110 scrimmage yards and a TD. Derek Carr throws for 270 yards and a score to Foster Moreau. Etienne responds with 130 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Lawrence throws for 280 yards and two more TDs, hitting Christian Kirk and ZJones. Jaguars 31-20

Indianapolis (+5.5) at New England, o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Pepperidge Farm remembers when a matchup between these two teams would mean Peyton Manning versus Tom Brady. Now it's Sam Ehlinger versus (maybe) Mac Jones. Sad trombone. Ehlinger's first career start last week didn't go too badly — there's nothing wrong with a 73.9 percent completion rate, an 8.7 YPA and zero INTs — but he did lose a fumble and didn't manage to throw a touchdowns against one of the sketchier secondaries in the league, so his ceiling still seems pretty limited. Oh, and the Colts lost at home to the Commanders, so there's only so much silver lining you can find. Swapping Nyheim Hines out for Zack Moss at the trade deadline makes sense if Jonathan Taylor's ankle is going to be an issue for a while, as Moss is a better fit on early downs, but this week Indy could have to lean heavily on Deon Jackson if Moss isn't quite up to speed on the playbook. Michael Pittman also looks to be the only safe receiving option again in the passing game. Parris Campbell saw only two targets and a carry last week, while Alec Pierce got five targets. Even if Ehlinger falls behind and has to air it out, there may not be a lot of volume for non-Pittman wideouts.

Mac Jones was back in the starting job last week, but it's fair to wonder how long his leash is. He's thrown an interception in every game he's played this season, and that includes Week 7 when he only attempted six passes. A 3:7 TD:INT isn't going to cut it on a Bill Belichick team, especially with Bailey Zappe looking plenty competent behind him. At 4-4 and with three of those wins coming in the last month, the Patriots look like they're just about ready to push their way into a playoff spot, but their schedule after a Week 10 bye doesn't have many soft spots, and they probably can't afford jittery QB play. Rhamondre Stevenson has at least claimed the top job in the backfield and solidified the running game, and he seems much less likely to let it go, however. Over the last six games, he's compiled 697 scrimmage yards and four rushing TDs. Even if Damien Harris finally gets healthy, it's hard to see him forcing his way back into a timeshare without Stevenson slipping.

The Skinny

IND injuries: QB Matt Ryan (out, shoulder), RB Taylor (out, ankle), LT Dennis Kelly (questionable, ankle)
NE injuries: RB Harris (questionable, illness), WR DeVante Parker (out, knee), C David Andrews (out, concussion), RT Marcus Cannon (out, concussion), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, ankle)

IND DFS targets: none
NE DFS targets: Jakobi Meyers $5,400 DK / $6,800 FD (IND 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), Patriots DST $4,100 DK / $4,900 FD (t-5th in sacks, t-1st in takeaways, IND t-29th in sacks allowed, t-30th in giveaways)

IND DFS fades: none
NE DFS fades: Kendrick Bourne $3,400 DK / $5,000 FD (IND third in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: IND 26th in red-zone conversions at 47.8 percent; NE 16th in red-zone defense at 56.0 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 70s, 11-12 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jackson leads the IND backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Ehlinger throws for less than 200 yards, tosses two picks and gets sacked in the end zone for a safety. Stevenson churns out 100 combined yards and a score. Jones throws for 220 yards and a TD to Meyers. Patriots 19-11

Buffalo at New York Jets (+12), o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Bills continue to look like the most dangerous team in the NFL, but they also continue to look like a team capable of beating itself before they get to that long-overdue Super Bowl. They were handily beating the Packers last week, but Josh Allen let his focus slip in the second half and they wound up only winning by 10. Had that happened against a younger version of Aaron Rodgers ... Buffalo also still has five divisional games left, and with nobody in the AFC East looking like pushovers, a couple more untimely lapses and the Bills could suddenly find themselves staring at a wild card. The team didn't make any major trades at the deadline, simply swapping Zack Moss out for Nyheim Hines to give them a more specialized backup to Devin Singletary, but they will get a major addition in Week 9 when Tre'Davious White makes his season debut. The defense has slipped a tiny bit from its usual heights — they sit an unthinkable third in QB rating against after dominating that category in 2021 — so having its top corner back in action should make a difference.

The loss of Breece Hall loomed large for the Jets last week as they lost to the Patriots. Michael Carter, James Robinson and Ty Johnson combined for less than 50 rushing yards, forcing Zach Wilson to air it out and putting him right where Bill Belichick wanted him. This team isn't built to win with its QB chucking it up 40-plus times (Joe Flacco's passing numbers early in the year may have been exciting, but the Jets were 1-2 under him). Robert Saleh wants a game defined by his defense, with the passing game only making cameos in the highlight reel, and having Hall blossom into a superstar made it easier to stick to that philosophy. The really wild thing with the Jets is watching Denzel Mims suddenly have a place again because Elijah Moore is the one in the doghouse. The agent of chaos in me kind of hopes Mims has a huge second half, and then both guys keep demanding trades in the offseason, because regardless of what else the team is doing right at the moment, something's clearly amiss in that receivers room.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: RT Spencer Brown (questionable, ankle), LB Matt Milano (questionable, oblique), S Jordan Poyer (out, elbow), S Micah Hyde (IR, neck)
NYJ injuries: RB Hall (IR, knee), WR Corey Davis (out, knee), RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (IR, triceps), RT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee), RT George Fant (IR, knee), RT Max Mitchell (IR, knee)

BUF DFS targets: none
NYJ DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: none
NYJ DFS fades: Mims $3,100 DK / $5,200 FD (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR2), Tyler Conklin $3,200 DK / $5,200 FD (BUF second in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: BUF second in third-down conversions at 50.6 percent; NYJ t-13th in third-down defense at 39.8 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 BUF, average score 25-17 BUF, average margin of victory 13 points. BUF has won the last four meetings by a combined score of 29-14

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Singletary gains 70 yards and his first rushing TD of the year. Allen throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, finding Stefon Diggs (who tops 100 yards) and Dawson Knox while running in his own score. Carter leads the NYJ backfield with 60 combined yards. Wilson throws for 240 yards and a TD to Braxton Berrios while also running in a touchdown, but he gets picked off twice. Bills 31-14

Minnesota at Washington (+3.5), o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Everything's coming up Minnesota this year. The Vikings' lead in the NFC North keeps getting bigger, and even division rivals like the Lions aren't afraid to help them get better by sending them a much-needed upgrade at tight end before the trade deadline. They have a legit case for being the second-best team in the conference, and they may not even have played their best football yet. The offense only put up its first game with more than 30 points last week, while the defense is still trying to find its footing. Kirk Cousins' numbers exemplify the vaguely disappointing performance on that side of the ball — his 6.6 YPA would be a career low, and he's on pace to come up short of 30 TDs for the first time since 2019. Keep in mind that's with Justin Jefferson headed for an 120-catch, 1,800-yard campaign. If T.J. Hockenson gives Cousins a secondary option who can make an impact (Adam Thielen's still getting volume but not doing much with it), it could be just what the Vikes need to finally catch fire in the scoring department.

The Commanders might be in first place if they were in the NFC South, but in the mighty NFC East, they're in the basement despite a .500 record. Taylor Heinicke's won consecutive starts, even if it was by a combined three points, and while I fully expect Ron Rivera to hand the offense back to Carson Wentz once he's healthy, there really should be a QB controversy brewing in DC. The team hasn't reached 20 points in five of its last six games though, and regardless of who's under center, the offense's upside is limited. The backfield duo of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson remains lackluster, though Gibson is at least making the injured J.D. McKissic redundant, catching at least three passes in five consecutive games. The Commanders still really don't have anything but Terry McLaurin going for them, so if they're going to make any kind of wild-card push, it'll probably have to come via the defense getting its act together. Chase Young making his belated season debut will help, but he won't solve the issues in the secondary.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: TE Irv Smith (IR, ankle), CB Cameron Dantzler (questionable, neck), S Lewis Cine (IR, leg)
WAS injuries: QB Wentz (IR, finger), RB McKissic (out, neck), WR Jahan Dotson (out, hamstring), C Chase Roullier (IR, knee), C Wes Schweitzer (IR, concussion), DE Young (PUP-R, knee), LB Cole Holcomb (out, foot)

MIN DFS targets: Thielen $5,600 DK / $6,200 FD (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), K.J. Osborn $4,200 DK / $5,300 FD (WAS 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)
WAS DFS targets: Heinicke $5,400 DK / $7,200 FD (MIN 29th in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed), McLaurin $5,900 DK / $7,200 FD (MIN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), Logan Thomas $2,900 DK / $5,000 FD (MIN 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

MIN DFS fades: Dalvin Cook $7,800 DK / $8,500 FD (WAS second in rushing DVOA, t-3rd in rushing TDs allowed), Hockenson $4,800 DK / $6,200 FD (WAS third in DVOA vs. TE)
WAS DFS fades: Commanders DST $2,400 DK / $3,700 FD (t-30th in takeaways, MIN t-3rd in giveaways)

Key stat: WAS t-25th in third-down conversions at 34.6 percent; MIN ninth in third-down defense at 34.9 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-70s, 9-10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Cook gains 70 yards. Cousins throws for 300 yards and three TDs, hitting Jefferson (who tops 100 yards) twice and Osborn once. Robinson leads the WAS backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown, while Gibson adds 50 combined yards. Heinicke throws for 250 yards and two scores, finding McLaurin (who also tops 100 yards) and Thomas. Vikings 24-21

Seattle (+2) at Arizona, o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Last time these teams met, it was supposed to be a barn burner and instead wound up a 19-9 dud. I'm going back to the well on a high score, to make a complete hash of the metaphor — why am I going to a well to get water if I want the barn to burn? — but it's something to keep in mind before you toss money at the over. The Seahawks won that game, though, and they sit precariously perched on top of the NFC West at 5-3, nervously waiting for the Niners or Rams to make some kind of push. Anybody not rooting for Geno Smith at this point is just dead inside; he's the story of the season, leading the league in completion rate at 72.7 percent and sitting in the top 5 or top 10 in a bunch of other categories, including YPA, TD% and INT%. He should be in the MVP conversation alongside Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, but he'll probably have to settle for Comeback Player of the Year. Meanwhile Kenneth Walker is gunning for Offensive Rookie of the Year with a four-game touchdown streak that's seen him average more than 100 rushing yards a game. The defense is also having fun and flying to the ball like in the good old Legion of Boom days, holding the Giants to 13 points last week. I still expect San Francisco, at least, to make it a race in the division, but Seattle's got the talent and the swagger to hold them off.

As for the Cardinals, they've lost three of their last four, and in the game they won the defense coughed up 34 points. Not exactly a winning formula. Kyler Murray hilariously waited until two days after the new Call of Duty launched to have his best passing performance of the season in an absolutely legendary reverse troll, but it didn't get Arizona a win, so I guess Patrick Peterson gets the last laugh. People keep saying Kliff Kingsbury has job security after signing a five-year extension in March, and I keep thinking how easy it would be for the Cards to get off the hook for at least some of that contract if a big-time college program throws a gazillion dollars at him. I mean, Carolina already showed them how it was done with Matt Rhule. Murray looks a lot more comfortable with DeAndre Hopkins back at his top wideout, so that duo at least should have a great second half, but I can't say I expect the same for the franchise given that the defense is sketchy, and the offensive line is in tatters.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: RB Rashaad Penny (IR, ankle), WR Marquise Goodwin (out, groin), S Jamal Adams (IR, knee)
ARI injuries: RB James Conner (questionable, ribs), RB Darrel Williams (IR, hip), WR Marquise Brown (IR, foot), LT D.J. Humphries (questionable, back), LG Justin Pugh (IR, knee), LG Max Garcia (out, shoulder), C Rodney Hudson (out, knee), S Budda Baker (questionable, ankle)

SEA DFS targets: Dee Eskridge $3,100 DK / $4,800 FD (ARI 26th in DVOA vs. WR3), Will Dissly $3,000 DK / $4,900 FD and Noah Fant $2,900 DK / $4,800 FD (ARI 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
ARI DFS targets: Eno Benjamin $5,900 DK / $6,600 FD (SEA 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 28th in rushing TDs allowed, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

SEA DFS fades: DK Metcalf $6,400 DK / $7,400 FD (ARI first in DVOA vs. WR1), Tyler Lockett $6,100 DK / $7,600 FD (ARI fifth in DVOA vs. WR2)
ARI DFS fades: A.J. Green $3,300 DK / $5,000 FD (SEA first in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: SEA 10th in third-down conversions at 42.4 percent; ARI 26th in third-down defense at 42.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 SEA, average score 24-22 SEA, average margin of victory eight points. SEA is 7-1-1 in the last nine games at State Farm Stadium

The Scoop: Walker gallops for 120 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Geno throws for 270 yards and two more TDs, finding Dissly and Eskridge. Benjamin leads the ARI backfield with 80 combined yards and a score. Murray throws for 260 yards and a TD to Zach Ertz. Seahawks 34-23

L.A. Rams (+3) at Tampa Bay, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Rams' quiet trade deadline could easily be read as a sign the team's given up on the idea of a Super Bowl repeat, but it could just as easily be a signal to the players already on the roster to start playing up to their talent level. (Also, they can always just parachute in Odell Beckham if it seems worth it.) It some ways, L.A.'s offensive struggles mirror those of the team they beat for the championship in February. The Rams are 3-1 when Matthew Stafford isn't running for his life, and 0-3 when he gets sacked five or more times. Unlike the Bengals, though, the fix isn't simply waiting for a rebuilt offensive line to finally gel. A unit that already shed starters in the offseason has been shredded by injuries, and right tackle Rob Havenstein might be the only guy left standing from last season's group. All the offense's other issues — Stafford struggling to connect with a target not named Cooper Kupp, and the running game being stuck in the mud — stem from losing the battle in the trenches week after week. On the bright side ... uhh, well, at least they don't have to face the 49ers again in the regular season.

It's tough to say whether the Buccaneers have been as disappointing as the Rams, but it's definitely close. Tom Brady's in new territory having lost three consecutive games, and five of six if you wind it back to Week 3. They aren't getting beaten by juggernauts either. That Week 3 loss to the Packers looks worse with every passing day, and the current losing skid includes bafflingly poor showings against the Steelers and Panthers. This isn't just on Brady's off-field drama either, though that can't be helping. This is another offense that hasn't been able to weather attrition along the offensive line, and the one time they scored more than 22 points this year, the defense was busy giving up 41 points to Patrick Mahomes. The Bucs have plenty of star power who can step up and help turn things around, on both sides of the ball, but you could say exactly the same thing about the Rams. I'd feel a lot better about this call if Shaquil Barrett were healthy to get after Stafford, but maybe Devin White can cause some backfield havoc or something.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: RB Kyren Williams (IR-R, ankle), WR Van Jefferson (questionable, knee), LT Joe Noteboom (IR, Achilles), LG David Edwards (IR, concussion), C Brian Allen (questionable, knee), RG Tremayne Anchrum (IR, lower leg), RG Logan Bruss (IR, knee), S Jordan Fuller (IR, hamstring)
TB injuries: WR Russell Gage (out, hamstring), TE Cameron Brate (out, neck), LG Aaron Stinnie (IR, knee), LG Luke Goedeke (out, foot), C Ryan Jensen (IR, knee), DE Akiem Hicks (questionable, foot), EDGE Barrett (IR, Achilles), CB Carlton Davis (questionable, hip), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (questionable, quadriceps), S Logan Ryan (IR, foot), S Antoine Winfield (out, concussion)

LAR DFS targets: none
TB DFS targets: Mike Evans $7,200 DK / $7,700 FD (LAR 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), Chris Godwin $6,200 DK / $6,700 FD (LAR 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Buccaneers DST $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (fourth in sacks, LAR 28th in giveaways)

LAR DFS fades: Stafford $5,600 DK / $6,700 FD (TB sixth in passing yards per game allowed, fifth in YPA allowed) 
TB DFS fades: Julio Jones $5,000 DK / $5,300 FD (LAR second in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: TB 14th in net yards per play at plus-0.1; LAR 27th at minus-0.6

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, 11 mph wind, 10-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Rivers leads the LAR backfield with 60 yards. Stafford throws for 280 yards and two TDs, hitting Kupp and Allen Robinson, but he also loses a fumble that White takes to the house. Leonard Fournette grinds out 70 combined yards and a score. Brady throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, both to Evans. Buccaneers 28-20

Tennessee (+12.5) at Kansas City, o/u 46 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Titans are the ultimate rope-a-dope team. They never really seem particularly scary, and they get written off quickly whenever they lose a couple games in a row, but then you look up and they've reeled off a five-game winning streak and are back on top of the AFC South. This time, though, I'm not buying it. Those wins have come against the Commanders, Raiders, Texans and Colts (twice), none of which look like credible playoff teams. Against two real teams, the Giants and Bills, they're 0-2, and they got wiped off the map 41-7 by Buffalo. Now they get to head to Kansas City, potentially without their starting quarterback — not the Ryan Tannehill is going to go throw for throw with Patrick Mahomes. Their game plan is the same as always — dare the other defense to contain Derrick Henry, grind out clock, and try to get enough big plays on defense to stay in it against a high-powered offense.

That Week 3 loss to the Colts doesn't look as potentially catastrophic now that they've handed the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Bills, but it still might end up making K.C. have to work a little harder than necessary to secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC. They're the only team in the league to score 40-plus points in more than one game, and they've done it three times. Last week Kansas City also topped 500 total yards of offense for the first time, and with the Cowboys now having a set a high-water mark in points with 49, you have to figure Mahomes is going to take a run at 50 at some point this year. He's finally clicking with the offseason additions at wide receiver, too — JuJu Smith-Schuster has topped 110 receiving yards and a TD in back-to-back games, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling popped for 111 yards last week against the 49ers. Did I mention Mecole Hardman has four TDs in those two games, or that Travis Kelce's reeled off five consecutive games with 90-plus yards and/or a touchdown? Or that they just added Kadarius Toney on the cheap? My heart goes out to every secondary and defensive coordinator who has to try to solve this riddle in the second half. The Kansas City defense has yet to allow less than 20 points in a game, but it almost feels like they have a mandate from the league to keep things competitive. You can have your 20; we'll average 30-plus and take our chances.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: QB Tannehill (questionable, ankle), WR Treylon Burks (IR, toe), LT Taylor Lewan (IR, knee), DE Jeffery Simmons (questionable, ankle), EDGE Harold Landry (IR, knee), EDGE Bud Dupree (questionable, illness), S Amari Hooker (out, shoulder)
KC injuries: DE Frank Clark (out, suspension)

TEN DFS targets: Tannehill $5,300 DK / $6,400 FD or Malik Willis $5,000 DK / $6,400 FD (KC 30th in passing yards per game allowed, t-31st in passing TDs allowed), Robert Woods $5,100 DK / $5,500 FD (KC 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
KC DFS targets: Valdes-Scantling $4,400 DK / $5,800 FD (TEN 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)

TEN DFS fades: Henry $8,500 DK / $9,500 FD (KC third in rushing yards per game allowed, second in rushing TDs allowed)
KC DFS fades: Clyde Edwards-Helaire $5,900 DK / $6,100 FD (TEN first in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, first in rushing TDs allowed, second in passing DVOA vs. RB)

Key stat: KC first in red-zone conversions at 76.7 percent; TEN 12th in red-zone defense at 52.4 percent (the KC offense and TEN defense both first rank first on third downs)

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Henry battles for 90 yards and a score. Willis starts at QB and throws for less than 200 yards, but he does run for 50 and a TD. CEH manages 60 yards. Mahomes throws for 350 yards and four touchdowns, finding Kelce (who tops 100 yards) twice and JJSS and MVS once each. Kansas City 34-20

Philadelphia at Houston (+13.5), o/u 45.5
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

I suppose this should be considered a trap game for the high-flying Eagles, but LOL. Since a Week 1 scare in Detroit, Philly's mostly steamrolled the opposition, holding five of the last six offenses it's faced to 17 points or less while never failing to score at least 20. (The one exception on the defensive front was in Week 4, when they charitably spotted the Jags 14 points in the first quarter and still claimed the lead by halftime.) Jalen Hurts is on pace for more than 4,300 passing yards and nearly 40 total TDs between his arm and legs, and he'd be the MVP front runner in a world where Josh Allen didn't exist. If the Eagles do have a perfect season, he might just win it anyway, no matter what numbers Allen puts up. The defense also addressed its one "weakness" before the trade deadline by picking up Robert Quinn, though a pass rush that was tied for fifth in sacks and tied for eighth in pressure rate wasn't exactly struggling. There isn't really much of a chance they'll get caught looking ahead here, as the Eagles' schedule contains no real threats to their unblemished record until about Week 12, or maybe not even until Week 16 in Dallas. On paper, there's no reason to think this Week 9 matchup will be particularly close.

The Texans' inability to stop the run seems to be a wee bit of an issue again. The last two games, Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry have combined for 362 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns against Houston, which maybe seems less than ideal. This is nothing new — Houston's run defense has been a tire fire for three years running now, and it wasn't that great in 2019 either. Basically, the last time the Texans' front seven was good was the last time J.J. Watt was healthy and in peak form. That's bad, but the problem gets compounded when you're fielding an offense that just doesn't have the horses to mount any kind of comeback. Davis Mills' numbers have taken a noticeable step backward in his second NFL season, and he's looking more and more like a future Case Keenum rather than a Joe Flacco, or even a Nick Foles. Even if Mills did have some upside, he's running out of guys to throw to. Nico Collins is banged up, and Brandin Cooks is banged up and disgruntled he's still a Texan. Hey, Phillip Dorsett has a first-round pedigree, maybe ... nope, I can't even finish typing that with a straight face.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: DE Derek Barnett (IR, knee)
HOU injuries: WR Cooks, (questionable, wrist), WR Collins (out, groin), C Justin Britt (NFI-R, personal), DE Jonathan Greenard (IR, calf), LB Christian Harris (questionable, thigh), CB Desmond King (questionable, knee)

PHI DFS targets: Miles Sanders $10,400 DK / $13,000 FD (HOU 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPC allowed), A.J. Brown $11,200 DK / $14,500 FD (HOU 28th in DVOA vs. WR1), Eagles DST $7,000 DK / $10,000 FD (t-5th in sacks, t-1st in takeaways)
HOU DFS targets: none

PHI DFS fades: none
HOU DFS fades: Mills $9,000 DK / $14,000 FD (PHI second in passing DVOA, fourth in passing yards per game allowed, second in YPA allowed), Dorsett $4,000 DK / $9,000 FD (PHI second in DVOA vs. WR1), Tyron Johnson $200 DK / $5,000 FD (PHI first in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: HOU 30th in third-down conversions at 31.9 percent; PHI 12th in third-down defense at 39.5 percent

The Scoop: Sanders piles up 120 yards and a touchdown, while Boston Scott also gets into the end zone. Hurts throws for 250 yards and a score to Brown while also running for 40 yards and a TD of his own. Dameon Pierce gains 60 yards and a score. Mills throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, but he does manage to hit (flips coin for TE) Jordan Akins for a garbage-time TD, and the only suspense in the game comes from whether Philly will hang on to cover the spread. Eagles 31-17

Last week's record: 12-3, 10-5 ATS, 7-8 o/u
2022 regular-season record: 63-59-1, 53-67-3 ATS, 62-60-1 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 174-97-1, 146-125-1 ATS, 125-143-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 1351-828-8, 1058-1059-70 ATS, 797-847-31 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)