NFL Game Previews: Browns-Steelers Matchup

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (+3), o/u 40.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Both these teams are out of the playoff race coming into the week, but important as a win would be for either club, that might take a back seat to it being Ben Roethlisberger's final home game as a Steeler. Nothing's official yet, but this figures to be an emotional night no matter what the final score is. The Browns haven't won in Pittsburgh in the regular season since 2003 — Tommy Maddox started at QB for the Steelers in that one, with Charlie Batch seeing some action as well in a 33-13 rout — but last year's playoff win pretty decisively got that monkey off their back. The vultures are also circling in Cleveland around Baker Mayfield, but if anyone deserves a mulligan on their 2021 it's the guy who's played hurt all year. This is Nick Chubb's offense anyway, and Kareem Hunt might be back this week as well, so any contribution Mayfield gives them should be gravy. As for the Steelers, the institutional failure to plan for Roethlisberger's inevitable departure, when he's seemed on the cusp of hanging up his cleats for two-plus years now, is pretty much inexcusable, especially when you consider the state of the rest of the roster. It's not like the draft capital or free agent dollars not used on a QB has done much to help the offensive line. They're 2-4 since failing to beat the Lions in Week 10, which in retrospect was the clearest sign this team wasn't going to send Ben off into the sunset with a playoff run. Maybe they go find a veteran in the offseason (Matt Ryan?) to take over next year, but that's just more draft picks out the door to try and tread water in a division that might be passing them by.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: RB Hunt (questionable, ankle), S John Johnson (out, hamstring), S Ronnie Harrison (out, ankle)

PIT injuries: C B.J. Finney (IR, back), C Kendrick Green (questionable, hamstring), LB Devin Bush (questionable, COVID-19), LB Joe Schobert (doubtful, COVID-19)

CLE DFS targets: Chubb $7,800 DK / $8,000 FD (PIT 30th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed)

PIT DFS targets: none

CLE DFS fades: none

PIT DFS fades: none

Key stat: PIT is 20th in red-zone conversions at 56.8 percent; CLE is 28th in red-zone defense at 68.1 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 8-3-1 PIT, average score 24-20 PIT, average margin of victory nine points. PIT has won 17 straight home meetings in this rivalry during the regular season, but lost 48-37 to the Browns at Heinz Field in the wild-card round last season 

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Chubb thunders for 120 yards and two touchdowns. Mayfield throws for 230 yards and a score to Rashard Higgins. Najee Harris picks up 70 yards and a TD. Roethlisberger comes through in his farewell, throwing for 260 yards and touchdowns to Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. Steelers 24-21

Philadelphia at Washington (+3.5), o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Eagles come into the penultimate week of the regular season clinging to the final wild card in the NFC, and with a tough Week 18 matchup against the Cowboys looming, they can't afford to stumble in DC. Philly's won three straight and five of six, including a 27-17 win over Washington a couple weeks ago, largely on the strength of its running game — last week was the first time since Week 7 no Eagle reached 70 rushing yards in a game, and Jalen Hurts got held to a season-low seven yards on the ground, but the aggregate backfield was still more than enough. Hurts appears to have put his ankle injury behind him too, so that paltry total might just be a one-off for the second-year QB. Washington's crashing hard after last year's division title, as the Horse Team With No Name has lost three straight to guarantee a losing record for 2021, a swoon punctuated by last week's embarrassing rout in Dallas. Taylor Heinicke got replaced by Kyle Allen late in that one, and coach Ron Rivera has suggested both QBs will get reps in this one, which is as much an admission Heinicke isn't the answer as it is Rivera's looking ahead to next year. Whoever takes the snaps will do so from a third-string center to boot, which doesn't bode well for the offense as a whole.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: RB Mikes Sanders (out, hand), RB Jordan Howard (questionable, neck), RG Brandon Brooks (IR, pectoral), LB Davion Taylor (IR, knee)

WAS injuries: RB Antonio Gibson (doubtful, COVID-19/hip), RB J.D. McKissic (IR, concussion), WR Curtis Samuel (questionable, hamstring), LG Ereck Flowers (questionable, COVID-19), C Tyler Larsen (IR, Achilles), RT Samuel Cosmi (doubtful, COVID-19)

PHI DFS targets: Hurts $6,600 DK / $7,900 FD (WAS 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in TD% allowed), Jalen Reagor $3,300 DK / $5,000 FD (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

WAS DFS targets: John Bates $2,900 DK / $4,600 FD and Ricky Seals-Jones $3,300 DK / $5,000 FD (PHI 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

PHI DFS fades: none

WAS DFS fades: none

Key stat: PHI is fifth in third-down conversions at 45.5 percent; WAS is 31st in third-down defense at 50.5 percent 

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 PHI, average score 26-21 PHI, average margin of victory 10 points. Last season's sweep represented the only WAS victories in this rivalry since 2016

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-60s, 11 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Howard suits up, but Boston Scott leads the PHI backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown. Hurts throws for 230 yards and two TDs, hitting DeVonta Smith and Reagor, while running for 40 yards and a score of his own. Jaret Patterson leads the WAS backfield with 50 combined yards, but Jonathan Williams bangs in a short TD. Heinicke throws for less than 200 yards and a score to Seals-Jones. Eagles 28-20

L.A. Rams at Baltimore (+3.5), o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

If you're looking for a sign the Rams, who just took over the lead in the NFC West and still have a shot at the top seed in the conference, might be destined to win the Super Bowl this season, the late-season return of Cam Akers from what was supposed to be a season-ending Achilles injury is as good an omen as any. Akers might make his shocking return just as Darrell Henderson goes down, but it's Sony Michel who'll probably lead the way in the backfield. Not that any of the team's RBs might be needed much in this one. Matthew Stafford will take aim at a patchwork secondary and will look to rebound from his worst performance of the season, which seems like a bad combo for Baltimore. That's not even the biggest issue for the Ravens, as Lamar Jackson missed consecutive games with an ankle injury and appears headed for absence No. 3. Josh Johnson was pressed into duty last week and put up stunningly good numbers in place of Tyler Huntley, who has also played amazingly well in Lamar's place. You know what? I take it back, the secondary is their biggest issue. The Ravers have lost four straight regardless of who's been under center, giving up 29.0 points a game during that slump. Not only has that probably cost them the AFC North title — they're one game back of the Bengals, who swept them this year and thus hold the primary tiebreaker — they aren't even currently in a wild-card spot despite an 8-7 record.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: RB Henderson (IR, knee), RB Akers (questionable, Achilles), LB Ernest Jones (IR, ankle), S Taylor Rapp (questionable, shoulder)

BAL injuries: QB Jackson (questionable, ankle), WR Marquise Brown (questionable, illness), WR Devin Duvernay (questionable, ankle), LG Ben Powers (out, foot), CB Anthony Averett (out, ribs) 

LAR DFS targets: Stafford $7,100 DK / $7,600 FD (BAL 30th in passing DVOA, 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed), Odell Beckham $5,700 DK / $6,500 FD (BAL 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)

BAL DFS targets: none

LAR DFS fades: none

BAL DFS fades: Devonta Freeman $5,100 DK / $5,700 FD and Latavius Murray $4,400 DK / $5,100 FD (LAR fourth in rushing DVOA, third in YPC allowed), Ravens DEF $2,500 DK / $3,500 FD (31st in takeaways, LAR t-2nd in sacks allowed)

Key stat: LAR are first in yards per play at 6.1; BAL is 32nd in yards per play allowed at 6.1

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-60s, 15-17 mph wind, 35-55 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Michel rumbles for 90 yards and a TD. Stafford throws for 310 yards and two touchdowns, finding Cooper Kupp (who tops 100 yards) and Beckham. Freeman manages 50 yards and Murray 40. Huntley starts and throws for 240 yards and a score to Rashod Bateman while running in a TD of his own. Rams 30-17

Tampa Bay at N.Y. Jets (+13.5), o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Bucs continue to sail full speed toward an NFC South title, weird inability to solve the Saints in the regular season notwithstanding. Against any other opponent, they've won five consecutive games and scored 30-plus in each, and they've put up those numbers despite a rotating cast of skill players around Tom Brady. While tiebreakers could be an issue when it comes to claiming the No. 1 seed, Tampa Bay does have the easiest remaining schedule of any of the competitors with two double-digit loss squads left on the calendar. The Jets' win over the Jags last week puts the No. 1 pick in next week's draft out of reach, but they should still wind up in the top five if they don't do something dumb in the final two weeks. Zach Wilson has been getting it done with his legs, scoring four rushing TDs in the last five games, but his 3:2 TD:INT and 5.7 YPA as a passer over that stretch show how far he has to go. Getting his top receiving options back healthy would probably help a little, but when you're stuck with Keelan Cole, Denzel Mims and Braxton Berrios, you don't have to be a rookie to post bad numbers.

The Skinny

TB injuries: RB Leonard Fournette (IR, hamstring), WR Mike Evans (questionable, hamstring), WR Antonio Brown (questionable, ankle), LB Lavonte David (IR, foot), OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (out, shoulder), OLB Shaquil Barrett (out, knee), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (questionable, COVID-19), CB Richard Sherman (doubtful, Achilles), S Antoine Winfield (questionable, foot)

NYJ injuries: WR Jamison Crowder (doubtful, calf), WR Elijah Moore (IR, quadriceps), C Connor McGovern (IR, knee), DT Quinnen Williams (questionable, COVID-19), CB Bryce Hall (questionable, COVID-19)

TB DFS targets: Brady $7,600 DK / $8,300 FD (NYJ 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in YPA allowed), Ronald Jones $6,300 DK / $7,000 FD and Ke'Shawn Vaughn $5,200 DK / $5,600 FD (NYJ 29th in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed), Brown $6,100 DK / $8,500 FD (NYJ 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Tyler Johnson $3,800 DK / $5,200 FD (NYJ 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3), Rob Gronkowski $6,200 DK / $6,700 FD (NYJ 32nd in DVOA vs. TE), Buccaneers DEF $4,300 DK / $4,900 FD (t-2nd in sacks, NYJ t-31st in giveaways)

NYJ DFS targets: none

TB DFS fades: none

NYJ DFS fades: Zach Wilson $5,400 DK / $6,500 FD (TB fourth in passing DVOA, second in YPA allowed), Jets DEF $2,300 DK / $3,100 FD (32nd in points per game allowed, TB first in sacks allowed, second in points per game)

Key stat: TB is second in third-down conversions at 46.7 percent; NYJ are 27th in third-down defense at 43.2 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, 9-11 mph wind, 10-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jones piles up 100 scrimmage yards and a TD, while Vaughn adds 60 yards. Brady throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, both to Gronk. Michael Carter scratches out 50 yards. Wilson throws for less than 200 yards and gets sacked for a safety. Buccaneers 29-6

Miami (+3.5) at Tennessee, o/u 40.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Talk about a tale of two seasons. The Dolphins have reeled off a seven-game winning streak immediately after a seven-game losing streak, leaving them atop the pile of 8-7 teams in the AFC and with the final wild card for the moment. Do all seven wins come with some sort of asterisk, given the health and/or general talent level of the opposition? Yup. Do they all count? Yup. The defense has led the way, allowing only 11.7 points a game over the wining streak and only once giving up more than 17 (bizarrely, to the Jets a couple weeks ago), but the now-three-headed backfield of Duke Johnson, Phillip Lindsay and Myles Gaskin has also done enough to take more pressure off Tua Tagovailoa. The Titans seem likely to make the playoffs as well, as they still hold a one-game lead over the Colts in the AFC South and swept the season series, but they're 2-3 in their last five games and haven't scored more than 20 points in any as the offense continues to pine for Derrick Henry's return. Ryan Tannehill hasn't tossed multiple TDs in a game against anybody but Indy this season (6:4 TD:INT in two games against the Colts, 9:10 in 13 games against everybody else), but Tennessee's gotten away with it since the defense hasn't given up more than 19 points in three straight since the team's bye. Given that the conditions in this one aren't likely to be to either side's liking, points figure to be at a premium.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: none

TEN injuries: RB Henry (IR, foot), WR Julio Jones (questionable, COVID-19), OLB Bud Dupree (questionable, COVID-19)

MIA DFS targets: Dolphins DEF $2,800 DK / $3,600 FD (first in sacks, TEN 29th in sacks allowed)

TEN DFS targets: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $4,200 DK / $5,300 FD (MIA 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

MIA DFS fades: Mike Gesicki $5,300 DK / $5,900 FD (TEN fourth in DVOA vs. TE)

TEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: TEN is 10th in red-zone conversions at 61.1 percent; MIA is t-4th in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-30s, 10-11 mph wind, 15-25 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Johnson leads the MIA backfield with 60 yards and a score. Tua throws for less than 200 yards but hits Jaylen Waddle for a touchdown. D'Onta Foreman bangs out 70 yards and a TD. Tannehill throws for 230 yards and a score to Anthony Firkser but gets picked off twice. Dolphins 20-17

Jacksonville (+14.5) at New England, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Full credit to the Jags. They resisted the temptation to start playing better once Urban Meyer got sacked, and now find themselves with the worst record in the league (again) at 2-13, a half-game worse than the 2-12-1 Lions. There's no consensus on who the top prospect in next year's draft will be, which could hurt their chances of trading down for a big haul, but whether the new brain trust wants to grab an elite pass rusher or a tackle to protect Trevor Lawrence, it should have options. In the meantime, the offense, which hasn't scored more than 23 points in a game all year (16 teams have averaged more than 23), is now missing its most consistent asset for the final two weeks with James Robinson out of commission. The Patriots have no reason to take it easy on them, either. Buffalo reclaimed the top spot in the AFC East with last week's win and gets two creampuffs in the Falcons and Jets down the stretch, but New England will still wants to win out to keep pressure on the Bills while ensuring they don't slip out of a wild-card spot. They may have peaked at the wrong time, though. They've lost consecutive games since their bye, and a Week 18 contest on the road against a Miami team that could have its season on the line will be no pushover. The defense also has allowed 60 points in those two losses, its worst performance over consecutive games all year. The Jags are a perfect opponent to get right against, but they won't learn anything that'll help them against playoff-caliber foes.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: RB Robinson (IR, Achilles), TE James O'Shaughnessy (out, hip), TE Jacob Hollister (questionable, COVID-19), LT Cam Robinson (doubtful, COVID-19), LG Andrew Norwell (questionable, COVID-19), C Brandon Linder (questionable, COVID-19), RG Ben Bartsch (questionable, COVID-19), S Andrew Wingard (doubtful, COVID-19)

NE injuries: RB Damien Harris (questionable, hamstring), WR Jakobi Meyers (questionable, thigh), WR Nelson Agholor (out, concussion), K Nick Folk (questionable, knee), LB Dont'a Hightower (questionable, knee), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, COVID-19), OLB Matthew Judon (questionable, COVID-19), CB J.C. Jackson (questionable, elbow), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, hamstring)

JAC DFS targets: none

NE DFS targets: Mac Jones $5,300 DK / $6,800 FD (JAC 31st in passing DVOA, 27th in YPA allowed), Meyers $5,100 DK / $5,800 FD (JAC 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), N'Keal Harry $3,000 DK / $4,900 FD (JAC 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Patriots DEF $3,900 DK / $5,000 FD (t-1st in points per game allowed, JAC t-31st in giveaways, 32nd in points per game)

JAC DFS fades: Lawrence $5,000 DK / $6,500 FD (NE third in passing DVOA, third in passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed), Marvin Jones $4,400 DK / $5,700 FD (NE second in DVOA vs. WR1), Hollister $2,500 DK / $4,300 FD (NE first in DVOA vs. TE)

NE DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC is 25th in red-zone conversions at 54.5 percent; NE is second in red-zone defense at 47.7 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Dare Ogunbowale leads the JAC backfield with 50 yards. Lawrence throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Rhamondre Stevenson racks up 110 yards and two touchdowns. Jones throws for 240 yards and two scores, hitting Meyers and Hunter Henry. Patriots 31-3

Las Vegas (+6.5) at Indianapolis, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Note that if Carson Wentz doesn't end up playing, I have a projected 23-21 Raiders win. They might win anyway; despite all the turmoil surrounding the team this year, they refuse to leave the playoff picture, winning consecutive games over direct competition for a wild card in the Browns and Broncos. In both cases they got lucky, in that their opponent was missing key players, but hey, that might be good practice for Sunday. They've needed the assist, as the offense has grown sluggish and hasn't scored more than 17 points in any of the last four games. It's no coincidence those are the four games Darren Waller missed, leaving Derek Carr with no one reliable to put pressure on the defense down the field. The Colts still have a shot at the AFC South crown, but they'll need to win out and have the Titans lose both their remaining games to do it (and Tennessee plays Houston in Week 18). They're in good shape for a wild card at 9-6, but not too good that they can afford to just sub in a sixth-round rookie with zero career NFL pass attempts under center without blinking. That's exactly what'll happen if Wentz can't clear the COVID-19 protocols, though, as Sam Ehlinger would start. Jonathan Taylor carries the offense anyway, but his job gets a lot more difficult if the Vegas defense just gets to stack the box every play and dares the kid to beat it over the top.

The Skinny

LV injuries: TE Waller (doubtful, knee/back/COVID-19), LG Richie Incognito (IR, calf), LB Denzel Perryman (questionable, COVID-19), LB Cory Littleton (questionable, COVID-19), CB Casey Hayward (questionable, COVID-19), S Johnathan Abram (IR, shoulder)

IND injuries: QB Wentz (questionable, COVID-19), TE Jack Doyle (questionable, ankle), LT Eric Fisher (questionable, knee), RT Braden Smith (questionable, COVID-19), K Rodrigo Blankenship (IR, hip), S Andrew Sendejo (out, concussion)

LV DFS targets: Josh Jacobs $6,200 DK / $6,600 FD (IND 26th in YPC allowed, 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

IND DFS targets: Doyle $2,700 DK / $4,700 FD and Mo Alie-Cox $2,800 DK / $4,600 FD (LV 27th in DVOA vs. TE)

LV DFS fades: Zay Jones $3,900 DK / $5,100 FD (IND second in DVOA vs. WR2), Raiders DEF $2,700 DK / $3,400 FD (IND t-2nd in sacks allowed, fifth in points per game)

IND DFS fades: none

Key stat: IND is 10th in third-down conversions at 42.2 percent; LV is 24th in third-down defense at 41.8 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop Jacobs racks up 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Carr throws for 260 yards and a TD to Hunter Renfrow. Taylor jets for 130 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Wentz throws for 270 yards and two more TDs, finding Cox and T.Y. Hilton. Colts 31-23

Kansas City at Cincinnati (+5), o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Andy Reid's crew almost has the top seed in the AFC locked up. They're one game up on the Titans, and they'll need to stay there as they lost to Tennessee in Week 7, which also happens to be Kansas City's last loss to anybody. The Chiefs reeled off eight straight wins since, and while the resurgent defense did the heavy lifting early in the streak, now everything's firing on all cylinders – K.C. has outscored its opposition 118-47 over the last three, all victories over teams fighting for a playoff spot. Needless to say, Patrick Mahomes has been Mahomesing it up over that latest stretch, posting an 8:1 TD:INT, 73.3 percent completion rate and 9.2 YPA in those three wins. Joe Burrow's numbers over his last three games? 7:0 TD:INT, 75.5 percent completion rate and a 10.1 YPA. The Bengals somehow managed to lose one of them, but that's been the story of their season as they have yet to win or lose more than two games in a row. That's a bad omen coming into this one with consecutive wins in their pocket, but if they can take down the two-time defending AFC champs, not only will it all but lock up the AFC North title, it'll give them a shot at the No. 1 seed next week.

The Skinny

KC injuries: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (questionable, shoulder)

CIN injuries: RG Xavier Su'a-Filo (IR-R, knee), LB Germaine Pratt (doubtful, COVID-19), CB Trae Waynes (doubtfdul, COVID-19)

KC DFS targets: Travis Kelce $7,300 DK / $8,200 FD (CIN 28th in DVOA vs. TE)

CIN DFS targets: Joe Mixon $7,500 DK / $8,500 FD (KC 30th in YPC allowed, 26th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

KC DFS fades: none

CIN DFS fades: Tyler Boyd $5,400 DK / $6,200 FD (KC first in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: CIN is seventh in yards per play at 5.9; KC is 27th in yards per play allowed at 5.8

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-30s, 10-11 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Darrel Williams leads the KC backfield with 70 scrimmage yards and a score, while Derrick Gore adds 50 yards. Mahomes throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Kelce (who tops 100 yards) and Byron Pringle. Mixon piles up 110 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Burrow answers back with 320 yards and two more touchdowns, one to C.J. Uzomah and one to Tee Higgins in overtime. Bengals 30-24

N.Y. Giants (+6) at Chicago, o/u 37.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Giants have lost four consecutive games and have lost double-digit games for the fifth straight season, but while GM Dave Gettleman (in charge for four of those) is apparently on his way out, coach Joe Judge seems to have earned a reprieve. The team's certainly had enough injuries this year to provide cover — just among the wideouts alone, they have three guys on IR including Sterling Shepard, three more ruled out this week including Kadarius Toney, and that'll probably move to four once Darius Slayton runs out of time to clear the COVID-19 protocols. I genuinely have no clue who will be lining up opposite Kenny Golladay for this one, but that's fine because he probably has no idea who's going to be throwing him the ball. Mike Glennon flopped hard, but Jake Fromm didn't even get a full four quarters to prove himself last week before he got the hook and Glennon went back in. Which one will start, and when will the other one replace the starter after thee offense stalls out again? Your guess is as good as mine, though I suppose not as good as Judge's. The Bears have their own QB concerns, but if Matt Nagy decides to sit Justin Fields rather than having him play on a frozen track, Andy Dalton figures to get the nod despite Nick Foles' late-game heroics against the Seahawks. (Huh, imagine if a team like the Colts had picked up one of those guys a month or so ago rather than risking their whole season on a sixth-round rookie at QB.) It probably doesn't really matter who's under center in this matchup, as it figures to be the least watchable game of the afternoon either way. Another Chicago win would also firmly squelch any hopes the Giants had of securing two really early picks in next year's draft (they got the Bears' pick in the Fields trade at last year's draft), but even if they win out, Chicago is still handing over a top-10 pick.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: WR Toney (out, shoulder), WR Slayton (doubtful, COVID-19), C Billy Price (doubtful, personal), CB Adoree' Jackson (questionable, quadriceps)

CHI injuries: QB Fields (questionable, ankle), RB Tarik Cohen (out, knee), LT Jason Peters (questionable, knee), DT Akiem Hicks (questionable, undisclosed), CB Duke Shelley (questionable, heel)

NYG DFS targets: Golladay $5,100 DK / $5,500 FD (CHI 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), Giants DEF $2,800 DK / $4,200 FD (CHI t-31st in sacks allowed, 28th in points per game)

CHI DFS targets: none

NYG DFS fades: none

CHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYG are 31st in red-zone conversions at 45.9 percent; CHI is 14th in red-zone defense at 56.6 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 20s, 14-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Saquon Barkley manages 70 combined yards and a TD. Neither Glennon nor Fromm top 200 yards, and they combine for three INTs. David Montgomery gains 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Dalton throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Allen Robinson. Bears 14-10

Atlanta (+14.5) at Buffalo, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Falcons have just been looking to play spoiler for a while now, but they've done a poor job of it as the last team that could be considered a playoff contender they managed to beat was the Saints in Week 9. Losses since to the Cowboys, Patriots, Bucs and Niners haven't put a dent in anyone's postseason hopes (well, other than the teams chasing that group). Matt Ryan also hasn't tossed multiple TDs in a game since that victory over New Orleans, and his 4:5 TD:INT and 6.9 YPA in the seven games since are a pale shadow of his heyday. Atlanta should really trade the 36-year-old in the offseason, and it might find a healthy market given that this is supposed to be a weak draft class for QBs. Of course, that also makes it tougher for the Falcons to find Ryan's successor, but hey, one step at a time. The Bills have had a wild ride to get there, but they're back on top in the AFC East and barring a weird collapse in either of the final two weeks (stares at that 9-6 loss to the Jags in Week 9) they should stay there this time. Josh Allen has been productive but not efficient in recent weeks, managing only a 6.2 YPA over the least three games despite an 8:2 TD:INT, but if the defense plays up to its capabilities, that's more than enough offense for Buffalo to get by.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: WR Calvin Ridley (out, personal), WR Tajae Sharpe (questionable, COVID-19), CB Fabian Moreau (doubtful, ribs), S Jaylinn Hawkins (doubtful, COVID-19)

BUF injuries: WR Emmanuel Sanders (questionable, knee)

ATL DFS targets: none

BUF DFS targets: Josh Allen $8,000 DK / $8,800 FD (ATL 29th in passing DVOA, 28th in TD% allowed), Stefon Diggs $7,900 DK / $8,000 FD (ATL 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), Sanders $4,200 DK / $5,500 FD (ATL 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

ATL DFS fades: Matt Ryan $5,300 DK / $6,600 FD (BUF second in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, first in TD% allowed), Sharpe $3,200 DK / $4,800 FD (BUF first in DVOA vs. WR2), Olamide Zaccheaus $3,600 DK / $5,100 FD (BUF third in DVOA vs. WR3), Falcons DEF $2,300 DK / $3,000 FD (32nd in sacks, BUF third in points per game)

BUF DFS fades: none

Key stat: BUF is fourth in third-down conversions at 45.8 percent; ATL is 30th in third-down defense at 47.6 percent

Weather forecast: overcast and foggy, temperature in the mid-20s, 9-11 mph wind, 10-20 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Cordarrelle Patterson picks up 70 combined yards. Ryan throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Devin Singletary racks up 90 scrimmage yards. Allen throws for 260 yards and two TDs, finding Diggs and Gabriel Davis, while also running for a score. Bills 24-6

Houston (+12.5) at San Francisco, o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Texans are on a bit of a roll down the stretch, winning two straight including last week's upset of the Chargers, and if they've developed a taste for it, they get two more chances to play spoiler (they play host to the Titans in Week 18). Davis Mills suddenly looks like a credible QB, posting a 5:1 TD:INT, 68.9 percent completion rate and 7.5 YPA the last three games, and while it wasn't against the stiffest competition, it still might be enough to convince the front office Houston won't need to go get a starter in the offseason, either with their top draft pick or in a Deshaun Watson trade. Rex Burkhead's eruption last week also probably solidifies the backfield for the final two games, though again, running roughshod over the Bolts isn't exactly a tough challenge. The 49ers still cling to a wild card despite last week's loss in Tennessee, but now it looks like they'll have to make the final push with their own rookie under center. Jimmy Garoppolo's thumb injury puts Trey Lance in position to be the hero or goat, but at least he gets a relatively cushy warmup before potentially having to face the Rams in Week 18. The rest of the offense is also getting healthier, taking more pressure off Lance.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: QB Watson (out), RB David Johnson (questionable, quadriceps/COVID-19), WR Chris Conley, (questionable, knee), LT Laremy Tunsil (IR, thumb), LT Tytus Howard (questionable, COVID-19)

SF injuries: QB Garoppolo (doubtful, thumb), WR Elijah Mitchell (questionable, knee), LB Dre Greenlaw (out, groin), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (out, knee), CB Emmanuel Moseley (IR, ankle)

HOU DFS targets: Brandin Cooks $6,000 DK / $6,500 FD (SF 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)

SF DFS targets: Mitchell $6,000 DK / $7,800 FD and Jeff Wilson $5,600 DK / $6,700 FD (HOU 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed), George Kittle $7,100 DK / $7,300 FD (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

HOU DFS fades: Brevin Jordan $2,800 DK / $4,800 FD (SF second in DVOA vs. TE)

SF DFS fades: none

Key stat: SF is first in red-zone conversions at 71.7 percent; HOU is 23rd in red-zone defense at 62.1 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Burkhead ekes out 50 yards and a receiving TD. Mills throws for 250 yards and a second score to Cooks. Mitchell returns with a bang, piling up 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Lance throws for 230 yards and a TD to Kittle while running in a score of his own. 49ers 21-20

Denver (+6.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Both these come into Week 17 trying to get back into the playoff picture, though at 8-7, the Chargers' job is a little bit easier than the Broncos' at 7-8. Denver's lost three of its last four, and COVID-19 has devastated the team's roster this week, sidelining the Broncos' top three wideouts, top pass rusher and a couple key members of the secondary, among others. Teddy Bridgewater will also miss another game with a concussion, putting the thoroughly lackluster Drew Lock back under center. Even their backfield duo is banged up, though both Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams were able to practice this week and the former will have that extra revenge game incentive. The Chargers are only in this mess because they no-showed in Houston last week, as the run defense basically gave up against Rex Burkhead and Justin Herbert couldn't carry the team out of the hole. He'll at least have his receiving corps at full strength, though, and if the Bolts can win out, 10-7 might just be good enough to sneak into a first-round loss to Buffalo or whoever in the postseason.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: QB Bridgewater (out, concussion), RB Williams (questionable, knee), RB Gordon (questionable, thumb/hip), WR Jerry Jeudy (out, COVID-19), WR Courtland Sutton (questionable, illness), WR Tim Patrick (out, COVID-19), RT Bobby Massie (out, COVID-19), LB Kenny Young (questionable, concussion), OLB Bradley Chubb (out, COVID-19), CB Ronald Darby (questionable, shoulder), CB Bryce Callahan (out, COVID-19), S Kareem Jackson (questionable, back)

LAC injuries: TE Jared Cook (doubtful, COVID-19), RT Bryan Bulaga (IR, back), RT Storm Norton (doubtful, COVID-19), K Dustin Hopkins (questionable, COVID-19), LB Drue Tranquill (doubtful, ankle), CB Chris Harris (questionable, COVID-19), S Nasir Adderley (questionable, COVID-19)

DEN DFS targets: Williams $6,400 DK / $6,100 FD and Gordon $6,200 DK / $6,100 FD (LAC 32nd in rushing DVOA, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in rushing TDs allowed), Diontae Spencer $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (LAC 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

LAC DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: none

LAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAC are third in third-down conversions at 46.3 percent; DEN is 26th in third-down defense at 42.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 DEN, average score 20-19 LAC, average margin of victory eight points. Only three of the last 12 meetings have been decided by more than a single score

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Williams picks up 90 combined yards and a TD, while Gordon adds 70 yards. Lock throws for less than 200 yards. Austin Ekeler gains 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Herbert throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, finding Keenan Allen and Jalen Guyton. Chargers 24-13

Carolina (+7.5) at New Orleans, o/u 38.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Panthers have lost five consecutive games and are giving every indication of just playing out the string, getting outscored 152-72 over that stretch. No Christian McCaffrey and a revolving door at QB has doomed the offense, while injuries in the secondary have left the defense vulnerable to any quarterback with a decent arm. Sam Darnold gets another chance, but he did little in his return last week from shoulder trouble, though he at least didn't commit any turnovers. Cam Newton, by contrast, has thrown a pick in four consecutive games, and he could be relegated to red-zone work in this one. At 7-8, the Saints are still alive in the wild-card race but need to win out (not that tough a task with a trip to Atlanta in Week 18) and get some help to squeak in. Last week's loss with rookie Ian Book under center wasn't a surprise, but it's not like the offense was humming with Taysom Hill in charge either. They've scored only 35 points total against their last four credible opponents (i.e. not the Jets), and no matter how well the defense is playing, that's not going to cut it most of the time. Getting the offensive line back up to full strength might help, but there's no guarantee the Saints will get either of their starting tackles back in time to save their season.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: TE Tommy Tremble (doubtful, COVID-19), LT Cameron Erving (doubtful, calf), DE Brian Burns (questionable, COVID-19), LB Shaq Thompson (questionable, COVID-19), LB Jermaine Carter (questionable, groin), LB Haason Reddick (doubtful, COVID-19), CB Stephon Gilmore (out, groin), CB CJ Henderson (questionable, shoulder), CB A.J. Bouye (IR, foot), CB Jaycee Horn (IR, foot), S Juston Burris (questionable, groin)

NO injuries: RB Mark Ingram (questionable, knee), WR Tre'Quan Smith (out, chest), WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey (questionable, illness), LT Terron Armstead (questionable, knee), C Erik McCoy (doubtful, COVID-19), RT Ryan Ramczyk (doubtful, knee/COVID-19), S Marcus Williams (questionable, COVID-19)

CAR DFS targets: none

NO DFS targets: Deonte Harris $3,000 DK / $5,100 FD (CAR 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

CAR DFS fades: Chuba Hubbard $5,000 DK / $5,400 FD (NO first in rushing DVOA, second in YPC allowed)

NO DFS fades: none

Key stat: CAR is 24th in red-zone conversions at 54.8 percent; NO is first in red-zone defense at 42.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 9-3 NO, average score 27-22 NO, average margin of victory 12 points. NO has won five of the last six meetings in the Superdome

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Ameer Abdullah leads the CAR backfield with 60 combined yards, while Hubbard adds 40. Darnold throws for less than 200 yards but does hit DJ Moore for a score, while Newton also runs in a TD. Alvin Kamara totes up 80 scrimmage yards. Hill throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, finding Marquez Callaway and Harris, while adding 50 yards on the ground. Saints 17-14

Detroit (+7) at Seattle, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Lions appear to have blown their shot at the No. 1 pick next year with those wins over the Vikings and Cardinals, as the Jaguars won't stop losing and have now moved past them into the league's cellar. Those two wins also account for the only times Detroit has scored 20 or more points in a game since Week 1, and while the backfield will get D'Andre Swift back this week after a four-game absence, Tim Boyle still is replacing the banged-up Jared Goff under center, which makes it that much more unlikely they'll be able to climb back up to the dizzying heights of 20 points. Then again, the Seahawks' gave up 25 to the Bears last week, so never say never. Seattle's folded in the second half, winning just two of the last seven games, and there's more than enough blame to go around to everyone for Pete Carroll's first losing season since 2011, with the coach right at the front of the line. Russell Wilson, of course, got drafted in 2012, but even his future in Seattle now seems uncertain. He's played better in recent weeks, posting an 8:2 TD:INT over the last five, but his 64.9 percent completion rate and 7.0 YPA are still below his usual level. At least Rashaad Penny is finally playing like a first-round pick ... just in time for free agency in the offseason.

The Skinny

DET injuries: QB Goff (doubtful, knee), WR Josh Reynolds (questionable, COVID-19), WR Kalif Raymond (doubtful, COVID-19), TE Brock Wright (questionable, COVID-19), RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (doubtful, COVID-19), LB Josh Woods (IR, neck)

SEA injuries: LG Damien Lewis (doubtful, COVID-19), RT Brandon Shell (doubtful, shoulder)

DET DFS targets: Boyle $4,600 DK / $6,200 FD (SEA 28th in passing DVOA, 31st in passing yards per game allowed)

SEA DFS targets: Rashaad Penny $6,100 DK / $6,900 FD (DET 28th in rushing DVOA, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)

DET DFS fades: Lions DEF $2,400 DK / $3,500 FD (t-30th in sacks, SEA second in giveaways)

SEA DFS fades: none

Key stat: DET is 32nd in red-zone conversions at 43.2 percent; SEA is third in red-zone defense at 49.1 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 40s, 13-14 mph wind, 55-65 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Swift gains 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Boyle throws for less than 200 yards. Penny puts together 80 yards and a touchdown. Wilson throws for 280 yards and two scores, both to Tyler Lockett (who tops 100 yards). Seahawks 27-7

Arizona (+5.5) at Dallas, o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

If regular seasons ended around Halloween, there might be dynasty talk around the Cardinals. In 2019, Kliff Kingsbury's first season in charge, they went 3-3-1 in their first seven games ... and 2-7 the rest of the way. Last year, they went 5-2 in their first seven ... and 3-6 the rest of the way. This season, they went 7-0 to begin the year ... and are 3-5 since after losing their last three. The swoon has cost them the top spot in the NFC West, but thanks to a season sweep of the 49ers back when they were playing well, that's as far as the Cards can drop — at 10 wins, none of the teams currently on the outside looking in for a wild card can catch them. Injuries have been a big part of the problem, sapping depth on defense and taking Arizona's best wideout (DeAndre Hopkins) off the field, but Kyler Murray also hasn't looked the same since returning from an ankle issue. He's still scrambling, but his 4:3 TD:INT, 62.8 percent completion rate and 6.8 YPA over the last four games are all big steps back from the passing numbers he was putting up early when he was part of the MVP conversation. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have won four straight to claim the NFC East crown and keep the pressure on the Packers for the No. 1 seed in the conference. Last week's destruction of Washington might have heralded the return to form of Dak Prescott (330 yards and four TDs in less than three quarters of work), but it's been the defense that's been getting the headlines lately. They've held fourconsecutive opponents to 20 points or less, racking up multiple takeaways in each, while the now-healthy pass rush has looked downright unstoppable at times. This may not be the stingiest unit in the league, but it does look like the defense most capable of turning around a close game with a big play.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: RB James Conner (questionable, heel), WR Rondale Moore (questionable, ankle), LT D.J. Humphries (doubtful, COVID-19), OLB Markus Golden (questionable, COVID-19), CB Robert Alford (IR, pectoral), CB Marco Wilson (out, shoulder), S Budda Baker (questionable, ribs)

DAL injuries: LB Keanu Neal (out, COVID-19)

ARI DFS targets: none

DAL DFS targets: none

ARI DFS fades: Christian Kirk $5,800 DK / $6,400 FD (DAL first in DVOA vs. WR1)

DAL DFS fades: Ezekiel Elliott $7,100 DK / $7,500 FD and Tony Pollard $5,900 DK / $6,200 FD (ARI fifth in rushing DVOA, t-1st in rushing TDs allowed), CeeDee Lamb $7,100 DK / $7,200 FD (ARI third in DVOA vs. WR1), Dalton Schultz $5,000 DK / $5,900 FD (ARI third in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: ARI is sixth in third-down conversions at 44.9 percent; DAL is first in third-down defense at 31.2 percent

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop Chase Edmonds leads the ARI backfield with 70 combined yards. Murray throws for 230 yards and runs for 50, hitting Zach Ertz and Antoine Wesley for scores, but he also throws a pick-six to Micah Parsons. Elliott leads the DAL backfield with 70 yards, while Pollard adds 60 yards and a receiving TD. Prescott throws for 300 yards and two more touchdowns, finding Amari Cooper (who tops 100 yards) and Michael Gallup. Cowboys 31-20

Minnesota (+6.5) at Green Bay, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Before the Kirk Cousins news hit, I had the Packers winning 30-20. It's, uhh, a little different now. It's too bad too, since the Vikings have been the one club to consistently give the Packers trouble in recent years, especially in Green Bay. The downgrade from Cousins to Sean Mannion is massive, however, and for all the grief Minnesota's starter gets for his occasional Cousinsing, he still puts up excellent numbers in the aggregate. Mannion has a career QB rating of 57.5. Cousins' mark since arriving from Washington is 103.0 in three-plus seasons. The Vikes probably needed to win out to have a shot at the postseason, but unless we look back on this one as the Mannion Miracle, that seems gone now. Maybe they'll get lucky and the Packers will look past them to their Week 18 clash with, uhh, the Lions. Green Bay controls their own fate — win out, and the road to the Super Bowl runs through Lambeau as they'll be the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Aaron Rodgers is making a late push for another MVP, posting a 16:0 TD:INT, 70.6 percent completion rate and 8.3 YPA over the last five games, with the Pack winning the last four. The defense still hasn't quite gelled despite plenty of talent, particularly in the secondary, but the team doesn't need to be perfect on that side of the ball just so long as it makes sense Rodgers gets his chances.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: QB Cousins (out, COVID-19), WR Thielen (IR, ankle), TE Tyler Conklin (questionable, hamstring), RG Mason Cole (IR, elbow), RG Oli Udoh (questionable, COVID-19), DE Everson Griffen (out, personal), CB Cameron Dantzler (doubtful, calf)

GB injuries: WR Randall Cobb (IR-R, groin), LT David Bakhtiari (out, knee), C Josh Myers (IR, knee), RT Billy Turner (out. Knee), OLB Za'Darius Smith (IR, back), CB Jaire Alexander (out, shoulder)

MIN DFS targets: Dalvin Cook $8,000 DK / $8,500 FD (GB 31st in rushing DVOA, 31st in YPC allowed)

GB DFS targets: Davante Adams $9,300 DK / $8,700 FD (MIN 26th in DVOA vs. WR1)

MIN DFS fades: Dede Westbrook $3,500 DK / $4,900 FD (GB second in DVOA vs. WR3)

GB DFS fades: Packers DEF $2,900 DK / $4,400 FD (MIN t-2nd in sacks allowed, third in giveaways)

Key stat: GB is t-14th in red-zone conversions at 60.0 percent; MIN is t-20th in red-zone defense at 60.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-4-1 MIN, average score 23-23, average margin of victory eight points. MIN is 3-3-2 in their last eight games at Lambeau Field

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high single digits, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Cook bangs out 80 yards. Mannion throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, one of which Darnell Savage returns to the house. Aaron Jones gains 70 yards and a score, while AJ Dillon adds 60 yards. Rodgers throws for 280 yards and two TDs, hitting Adams (who tops 100 yards) and Allen Lazard. Packers 34-3

Last week's record: 11-5, 8-8 ATS, 7-8-1 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 152-87-1, 128-111-1 ATS, 109-127-4 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1266-759-7, 987-978-67 ATS, 719-771-30 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)