IDP Analysis: Lawson's Revival

RISING

Tracy Walker, S, DET

Perhaps it was a one-week shift in the game plan, but the Lions gave Walker a three-down role against the Cardinals on Sunday after limiting him to more of a two-down role in the first two weeks. Walker rotated with fellow safety Will Harris in those first two games, but against the Cardinals Walker logged 65 snaps after playing only 54 and 39 in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively. If Matt Patricia keeps Harris out of Walker's way, then Walker has a clear path to DB1 utility in most formats. Walker piles up tackles at a high rate, which he did both Sunday (12 tackles) and in 2019 generally (103 on 851 snaps). If you need a defensive back improvement, Walker could be the ticket. The return of fellow safety Jayron Kearse from suspension could be a concern for Walker's role, but he's expected to be an off-the-bench player from more than one position.

Carl Lawson, DE, CIN

Lawson quickly established himself as one of the league's best edge rushers as a rookie fourth-round pick in 2017, when he posted 8.5 sacks on just 482 snaps, but knee troubles set him back for the subsequent two seasons. After posting six sacks on his next 690 snaps, it seemed like Lawson's rookie-year production was a flash in the pan. Now that we're three games into 2020, though, it sure seems like the old Lawson might be back. On just 123 snaps, Lawson is already up to 14 tackles and three sacks, and he's done that without star tackle Geno Atkins around to draw double teams. As much as Sam Hubbard and Carlos Dunlap offer more IDP stability as the starting defensive ends for Cincinnati, Lawson might be the favorite to lead the team in sacks this year.

Chase Winovich, DE, NE

A breakout candidate going into 2020, Winovich is picking up steam and appears to be on the verge of proving his speculators correct. He has 1.5 sacks over the last two weeks as well as a tackle for loss in Week 1, giving him 10 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and 2.5 tackles for loss through three games. Winovich is a candidate to see his per-game snap rate rise a bit, too, as his 121-snap workload through three games had a 32-snap anomaly after averaging about 45 snaps in the first two weeks. Winovich is a standout athlete who posted 5.5 sacks on just 299 snaps last year, so he has probable room for imminent improvement despite his solid start.

Julian Love, S, NYG

A fourth-round pick out of Notre Dame in 2019, Love made the switch from cornerback to safety and through three weeks has posted encouraging IDP production. After posting eight tackles and an interception in the first two weeks, Love posted 11 tackles against the 49ers on Sunday, bringing his three-game total to 19 tackles and interception on 196 snaps. Love probably isn't playing at a very high level in real life terms and might be at some risk of benching in the future if that doesn't change, but as a fourth-round pick on a team with no competitive ambitions it would make sense for the Giants to let Love keep his three-down role all year if only for evaluation purposes. As long as he's playing 60 snaps per game, Love should offer some IDP utility.

 
FALLING

Christian Kirksey, (3-4) ILB, GB

Although it won't require surgery, Kirksey will miss time with a shoulder injury he suffered against the Saints on Sunday, derailing for the foreseeable future what was supposed to be a comeback campaign for the former Browns standout. Kirksey's problems always had more to do with durability than production, so it's a discouraging development for those who hoped Kirksey would provide cheap LB1 production in 2020. If he hadn't gotten hurt we'd probably be talking about Kirksey in the riser section – his 27 tackles on 182 snaps is a blistering pace. Kirksey's replacement for the time being appears to be Ty Summers.

Cory Littleton, LB, LV

Littleton was a high-dollar free agent signing for the Raiders this offseason, with Las Vegas offering a three-year, $35 million deal to lure him away from the Rams. Littleton played a three-down, coverage-heavy role with the Rams, where he totaled 259 tackles, 7.5 sacks and five interceptions over the last two years, but the numbers haven't been there yet through three games with his new team. Despite playing a mammoth 196 snaps, Littleton has just 15 tackles and no supplementary stats to show for it otherwise. Perhaps Littleton's poor IDP production is due to the Raiders' defensive scheme, but that's no solace given that he'll have to continue playing in that same defense. With all of this noted, Littleton's production through these three games probably marks his floor – it's hard to believe he could get any worse for his IDP investors.

Patrick Queen, ILB, BAL

Queen should be good eventually and the Ravens appear somewhat committed to him in the meantime, but only somewhat. The rookie noticeably struggled against the Chiefs on Monday, to the point that the Ravens scaled back his playing time in the second half. Although Queen led Ravens inside linebackers in snaps against the Chiefs, his 47 reps were nearly matched by backup L.J. Fort, who played 43 snaps after playing only 50 snaps in the first two weeks combined. If Queen can't patch up his play to Baltimore's liking, then Fort might soon overtake him as the team's lead linebacker.

Germaine Pratt, LB, CIN

Pratt has been reasonably productive through three weeks, totaling 20 tackles over those games, but he might be at his ceiling at the moment and at risk of falling to a lower floor than expected as the Bengals curiously use a linebacker committee. Josh Bynes has actually played more snaps than Pratt, though both have left the field more than most starters as the Bengals try to fit in rookies Logan Wilson and Akeem Davis-Gaither. All four of the Bengals linebackers should be fairly productive on a per-snap basis, but amassing the snap count might be more difficult than expected.