Exploiting the Matchups: Week 18 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

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Updated on January 5, 2024 5:10PM EST

I'll spare you the lecture on fantasy leagues that extend through Week 18. The elimination of a second bye and addition of a seventh playoff spot has actually made the final week more interesting most years, but unfortunately this isn't one of those years.

We already know Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, Matthew Stafford and Joe Flacco won't play this week, nor will Christian McCaffrey (calf), Cooper Kupp or Kyren Williams. Common sense suggests a bunch of other players from the Ravens (No. 1 seed), Chiefs (No. 3), Browns (No. 5), 49ers (No. 1) and Rams (No. 6/7) also will be held out or play very little, and there's also some chance the Lions and Eagles don't go all out given that their ability to improve seeding depends on the Commanders beating the Cowboys.

At the very least, Detroit and Philadelphia figure to be more cautious with injured players, which is especially relevant for fantasy when their Week 18 injury reports include WR DeVonta Smith (ankle), WR Jameson Williams (ankle) and TE Sam LaPorta (ankle). Furthermore, history suggests at least one or two of the non-contending teams will give young guys more playing time than usual and reduce workloads for some of their veterans.

If you're looking for sure things in terms of teams going all out, the AFC South is a good place to start. The Colts and Texans have a win-to-get-in game Saturday, and the Jaguars game against the Titans on Sunday will be important to Jacksonville no matter what happens with their rivals a day prior. The Jaguars can still end up at No. 4, No. 7 or out of the playoffs entirely.

We also know the Bills-Dolphins game Sunday night will be fiercely contested. The winner gets the No. 2 seed in the AFC. If the Dolphins lose, they'll head to Kansas City next week. If the Bills lose, they might be out of the playoffs entirely (a Steelers win + a Jaguars win would leave the Bills in the strange position of either being the second seed with a win or missing the playoffs on a tiebreaker with a tie).

In the NFC, it's a safe bet the Bears and Packers game will be 100 percent played to win on both sides. Green Bay clinches a wild-card with a win, and Chicago won't want that to happen. The Bears already have the No. 1 overall pick locked up via Carolina, want to continue their strong finish to the season and know that their own draft pick will land somewhere between 8th and 13th.

The Seahawks-Cardinals game is another good bet to be hotly contested. Seattle needs a win plus a Green Bay loss to reach the playoffs, and the Cardinals don't especially seem to care about the draft position thing (though their fans might end up pretty frustrated with that given the possibility of moving from No. 2 to all the way down to No. 7 in the span of two weeks. The Cards also just don't have many veteran starters to rest; they're a young team and care more about evaluation/reps for their young starters than for their backups.

The NFC South, like the AFC South, features two games with huge playoff implications, and the only team out of the playoff hunt (Carolina) also figures to treat it as a normal game. The Panthers don't have their first-round pick anyway, and like the Cardinals their starters could use more reps together.

Vikings-Lions and Giants-Eagles are the two games I'm least sure about. I think the Giants and Vikings will treat it as a normal game, but they might consider scaling back workloads for certain veterans if their opponents do the same (or simply rest starters). The Lions are in a strange spot, as their game only matters for playoff seeding if BOTH the Eagles and Cowboys lose... with Detroit playing at 1:00 ET and the AFC East games coming later at 4:25 ET.

With Philadelphia, you could make the case that practice/momentum is needed. With Detroit, not so much. Plus, the only thing left to be determined for Detroit is the No. 2 seed versus No. 3. The Eagles technically can jump from fifth to second still if the Cowboys choke against the Commanders.

If we're lucky, more coaches will clear this stuff up before the weekend. We were fortunate that a majority of the coaches in likely rest situations announced their QB benchings Wednesday. Most of them didn't elaborate on which other players will sit, but mostly we can connect the dots and assume that if Patrick Mahomes isn't playing, neither is Travis Kelce. Rams WR Puka Nacua might be an exception because he's so close to the rookie receiving yardage record, but even he doesn't figure to play a full game if he suits up. The same goes for the likes of Rashee Rice and Zay Flowers; if they do play, it won't be for the entire game.

Anyway, it's impossible to evaluate Week 18 without including rest-related stuff in matchup analysis, and there are also some incentives/milestones worth mentioning. It won't be the only thing I discuss, but it's impossible to dance around. And I 100 percent recommend looking at betting odds if you're playing in a league that includes Week 18 or involved in any other kind of DFS or fantasy contest this week. Many of the lines are very, very different from what they would've been for the same matchups a week or two ago. A quick look at the odds is the best way to get a grasp on what's expected in terms of resting starters.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Kyler Murray (vs. SEA) — 22% started

Start Over — Jared Goff (vs. MIN), Jordan Love (vs. CHI), Geno Smith (at ARZ)

Murray is coming off back-to-back road games with more than 20 fantasy points and now returns home to face a Seattle defense that just can't seem to get it right. After getting gouged by wide receivers earlier this year, the Seahawks have struggled to stop the run more recently, now ranking 30th in both rushing yards and touchdowns allowed. Murray should get his fantasy points one way or another, as he's averaging 219.1 yards through the air and 30.1 on the ground. The 48.0 over/under for this Seattle-Arizona game is the second-largest of the week, behind only Bills-Dolphins (49.5).

Other Good Matchups: Dak Prescott (at WAS), Justin Fields (at GB), Geno Smith (at ARZ), Tyrod Taylor (vs. PHI), Gardner Minshew (vs. HOU), Nick Mullens (at DET), Sam Darnold (vs. LAR)

Running Backs 👍

Austin Ekeler (vs. KC) — 85% started

Start Over — Derrick Henry (vs. JAX), D'Andre Swift (at NYG), James Cook (at MIA)

It's been a disappointing year for Ekeler and the Chargers, with injuries playing a considerable role in both cases. He's scheduled for free agency in the offseason but first has a lot to gain from a big Week 18, and it appears he'll get a boost from playing a division rival that plans to rest some starters. In addition to getting one last chance to make his case for future employers, Ekeler will earn a $100,000 bonus if he records 110 yards from scrimmage (to reach 1,125 for the season).

RELEVANT PLAYER INCENTIVES:
Odell Beckham 5 rec for 250K
Nelson Agholor 58 rec yds for 250K
Dalton Schultz 4 rec for 250K / 6 rec for 500K
Devin Singletary 73 scrimmage yards for 250K
DeAndre Hopkins 49 rec yds for 1M / 7 rec for 250K
Austin Ekeler 110 total yds for 100K…
— David Mendelson (@DMendy02) January 4, 2024

Devin Singletary (at IND) — 51% started

Start Over — Javonte Williams (at LV), David Montgomery (vs. MIN), Jaylen Warren (at BAL),

Singletary averaged 16.0 carries, 3.5 targets and 96 yards per game over the past four weeks while losing some carries to Dameon Pierce and some passing-down snaps to Dare Ogunbowale. An all-or-nothing Week 18 could favor more of the workload going to the guy who has clearly been the team's best RB this year, especially after Week 17 saw Singletary take 19 of the 23 RB opportunities prior to Houston's final two drives in a 26-3 win over Tennessee. He'll face an even more vulnerable defense this Saturday, with the Colts ranking 30th in PPR points surrendered to running backs (26.7 per game) and 27th in rushing yards allowed (127.8 per game).

Other Good Matchups: Tony Pollard (at WAS), Joe Mixon & Chase Brown (vs. CLE), James Conner (vs. SEA), Kenneth Walker (at ARZ)

RB James Conner missed 4 games and half of a fifth, but he is within 110 yards of 1,000 yards rushing. It's a goal of which the offense is distinctly aware.
That and other @AZCardinals notes & thoughts in the final Friday Before #SEAvsAZ of the season:https://t.co/N9IpjMB7oL
— Darren Urban (@Cardschatter) January 5, 2024

Wide Receivers 👍

Jordan Addison (at DET) — 33% started

Start Over — Terry McLaurin (vs. DAL), Adam Thielen (vs. TB), Courtland Sutton (at LV)

Addison rebounded from a Week 16 ankle injury to handle his usual role last Sunday against Green Bay, and while he managed just 28 yards, he's now off the injury report and facing another subpar NFC North defense at home for the regular-season finale. Crucially, the Vikings have gunslinging Nick Mullens back under center after a brutal half-game diversion toward Jarren Hall, having quickly decided that Mullens' turnover-happy style is better than not moving the ball. Mullens threw for 714 yards, four TDs and six INTs across his two full games, which included a 6-111-2 effort from Addison at Cincinnati in Week 15.

This same Detroit defense shut the rookie down a week later, but that was partially due to his second-quarter exit with a sprained ankle — an event that was followed by Justin Jefferson and K.J. Osborn stacking up yards and both scoring touchdowns as part of Mullens' 400-yard day. The Lions have allowed the fourth most PPR points to wide receivers (39.0), and this Sunday they might rest or limit some starters in a game that can only impact their playoff seeding if BOTH the Cowboys and Eagles lose later in the afternoon.

Gabe Davis (at MIA) — 23% started

Start Over — Romeo Doubs (vs. CHI), Jakobi Meyers (vs. DEN), Brandin Cooks (at WAS)

Davis remains impossible to trust, but we can at least say his odds of a spike game are better than usual this week, as the Dolphins won't have CB Xavien Howard (foot) and may thus use Jalen Ramsey to shadow Bills No. 1 receiver Stefon Diggs. That would leave Davis to contend with Eli Apple and Kader Kohou, playing in a game with the largest over/under (49) of Week 18 and no concerns about starters being rested or cold/snowy weather.

Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey to us today on if he will shadow Cowboys star WR Ceedee Lamb: "I don't think that's the game plan. I don't think that's my role in this defense."
Ramsey shadowed Jets' Garrett Wilson last Sunday in late adjustment only because Xavien Howard was inactive.
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) December 22, 2023

Other Good Matchups: Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison (at DET); CeeDee Lamb & Brandin Cooks (at WAS); DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett & Jaxon Smith-Njigba (at ARZ); George Pickens (at BAL); Julio Jones (at NYG); Quentin Johnson (vs. KC)

Tight Ends 👍

Gerald Everett (vs. KC) — 21% started

Start Over — Sam LaPorta (vs. MIN), Pat Freiermuth (at BAL), Taysom Hill (vs. ATL)

Everett has a four-game streak with either eight or nine targets, but thanks to poor efficiency it's gone unnoticed by many. Normally I wouldn't expect the efficiency part to change with QB Easton Stick under center, but there's a good chance the Chargers (-3.5) end up facing Kansas City's second-string defense for all or most of Sunday's game. That might also mean less passing and more running, but it should work out fine for Everett given the likelihood that Keenan Allen (heel) and/or Joshua Palmer (concussion) miss another game.

Everett and Alex Erickson were Stick's top targets last week, and there's also a good chance the Chargers try to use this game as a platform for Quentin Johnston into next season. Everett has his own motivation, as he's scheduled for a third crack at unrestricted free agency in March.

Other Good Matchups: Dalton Schultz (at IND), Jake Ferguson (at WAS)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Tua Tagovailoa (vs. BUF) — 55% started

Start Instead — Dak Prescott (at WAS), Justin Fields (at GB), C.J. Stroud (at IND)

With so many top QBs out of action this week, you're probably starting Tagovailoa if you have him. Those with the luxury of benching him should consider it, however, as he's likely looking at another week without Jaylen Waddle (ankle) and will have to contend with one of the better defenses in the league. Buffalo has allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points to QBs and ranks sixth in net yards per pass attempt (5.5), with the strong track record including limiting Tagovailoa to one TD in a 48-20 blowout back in Week 4. It won't be that ugly this time, nor will it be as ugly as what happened in Baltimore last week, but we also shouldn't expect huge numbers when he's facing a top defense and doesn't have both Waddle and Tyreek Hill available.

Other Tough Matchups: Jordan Love (vs. CHI), Derek Carr (vs. ATL), Taylor Heinicke (at NO), Tyler Huntley (vs. PIT)

Running Backs 👎

David Montgomery (vs. MIN) — 73% started

Start Instead — Ezekiel Elliott (vs. NYJ), Najee Harris (at BAL), Chuba Hubbard (vs. TB)

Although the Packers beat up on them last week, the Vikings mostly have played solid defense this year, staying in the playoff hunt (kind of) despite cycling through three different QBs since Kirk Cousins' injury. That alone probably isn't enough to bench Montgomery, especially in a home game, but it does give us a second factor tempering his upside on top of the possibility he's rested or pulled early. Craig Reynolds, anyone?

Javonte Williams (at LV) — 60% started

Start Instead — Jaylen Warren (at BAL), Zamir White (vs. DEN), Khalil Herbert (at GB)

The Raiders have allowed just two double-digit PPR performances to running backs in four games since a Week 13 bye, with Jonathan Taylor (last week) being the only guy in that stretch to have more than 66 total yards. Williams managed just 58 yards on 18 touches last week in a better matchup, home against the Chargers, and Jaleel McLaughlin has re-emerged as a factor in Denver's backfield with 10 and 11 touches the past two games.

Williams has been inefficient all season, and in negative game script he often drops to around 10-to-14 touches instead of pushing for 20. My concern this week is that he could be limited to that first range even if the Broncos win as three-point underdogs, as he's facing a rejuvenated defense and could lose even more work to a rejuvenated McLaughlin.

Other Tough Matchups: Derrick Henry (vs. JAX), Chuba Hubbard (vs. TB), Brian Robinson (vs. DAL)

Wide Receivers 👎

Garrett Wilson (at NE) — 69% started

Start Instead — Nico Collins (at IND), DeAndre Hopkins (vs. JAX), Calvin Ridley (at TEN)

The Trevor Siemian era has coincided with Wilson averaging just 5.34 YPT and 51.7 yards over a three-game stretch, cementing the talented wideout's 2023 receiving line (93-1,008-3) as something like a poor man's version of what Jarvis Landry did in Miami for four years (averages of 100-1,010-5.5). Landry did it with fewer targets and a much higher catch rate, benefitting from the sort of mediocre QB play Wilson can only dream of.

The 23-year-old remains capable of turning any game into a big one with his slippery work after the catch, but his task is even taller than usual with Siemian under center and the Jets on the road in a potential snow game. The 30.5 over/under is 4.5 points south of any other game on the Week 18 docket, even though at least a handful of teams are resting starters.

Terry McLaurin (vs. DAL) — 45% started

Start Instead — George Pickens (at BAL), Chris Godwin (at CAR), Tyler Lockett (at ARZ)

McLaurin is 53 yards away from his fourth straight 1,000-yard season, which could help him with volume — at least until he gets there — but I don't think that outweighs the impact of playing with a subpar QB against one of the league's top defenses. If not for Jacoby Brissett (hamstring) replacing Sam Howell in-game a couple times, McLaurin might not even be within striking distance of the milestone. The veteran wideout got a nice boost from his 122 passing yards on Brissett's 23 attempts, whereas McLaurin has accounted for just 21.7 percent of the receiving yards from Howell this season.

The combination of not missing any games and a Brissett boost has McLaurin in shape for another 1,000-yard campaign, but it hasn't been especially useful for fantasy with just four TDs, zero rush attempts and 59.1 yards per game. Dallas, meanwhile, ranks sixth in PPR points allowed to WRs (29.4 per game) and ninth in yards per target (7.53), with the strong work including limiting McLaurin to a 4-50-0 line on 11 looks back in Week 12.

Other Tough Matchups: Davante Adams (vs. DEN); Rashid Shaheed (vs. ATL); Jahan Dotson & Curtis Samuel (vs. DAL); Romeo Doubs (vs. CHI); Courtland Sutton & Jerry Jeudy (at LV); Demario Douglas & DeVante Parker (vs. NYJ)

Tight Ends 👎

Kyle Pitts (at NO) — 49% started

Start Instead — Dalton Schultz (at IND), Dalton Kincaid (at MIA), Darren Waller (vs. PHI)

Pitts is one of the few name-brand TEs that figures to handle his typical workload Week 18, but he's coming of his worst fantasy game of the season (one catch for five yards) and facing a highly motivated Saints defense that has Demario Davis and Tyrann Mathieu patrolling the middle of the field. New Orleans even got a huge showing from Johnathan Abram last week, with the former Raider (and first-round pick) notching an interception and a forced fumble while filling in for Marcus Maye (shoulder). The bigger problem, of course, is that Pitts simply hasn't done enough this year. He's sitting on a 51-640-3 receiving line despite being healthy all season. That's partially on him and partially on the situation around him, but either way it's not changing at this point.