Exploiting the Matchups: Week 17 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

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Published on December 27, 2023

The big story of Week 17 — apart from your fantasy Super Bowl matchup — is the continuation of 2023's wild QB carousel. The Commanders, Broncos and Giants announced new starters Wednesday, while the Texans and Titans likely will be getting their injured starters back in the lineup (there's some chance the Steelers will too, but probably not).

On top of that, Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) is coming off his third injury in as many weeks and acknowledged Wednesday that he doesn't plan to do much throwing. He's made starts the week after suffering an injury three times this season already, including the past two games, but it seems an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder represents the greatest threat yet to his availability. If C.J. Beathard ends up starting, he and Jacoby Brissett will become the 60th and 61st quarterbacks to start games this year, with Jarrett Stidham then making it 62 once the late-afternoon games kick off.

That's actually not an unusual number — 68 QBs made starts last year, 62 the year before and 58 in 2020 — but it's hard to remember another season with this much fantasy impact from injuries to signal-callers. And now we've got teams making non-injury-related changes for various reasons, ranging from contract interests (Wilson/Stidham) to "protecting" a young QB (Howell... from himself?) to trying to win more games even when many of the fans would rather lose (DeVito/Taylor). The stated reasons for these changes aren't always the real reasons, but we

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

C.J. Stroud (vs. TEN) — 17% started

Start Over — Jared Goff (at DAL), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. BAL), Jordan Love (at MIN)

Coach DeMeco Ryans revealed Wednesday that Stroud is in Stage 4 of concussion protocol, which means he could be cleared by a club physician and an independent neurologist (Stage 5) as soon as Thursday or Friday. If so, the rookie will return to action with a home matchup against the league's most injury-ravaged defense, and likely with WRs Nico Collins (calf) and Noah Brown (knee) both at his disposal after they made it through Sunday's loss to the Texans without incident and then logged limited practice Wednesday (as did Stroud).

The Titans' injury report doesn't look nearly as gruesome this week, but that's because they placed three starter on IR at the end of last week, shutting down star DT Jeffery Simmons plus their second-leading tackler (LB Jack Gibbens) and third-leading tackler (S Amani Hooker). Give Mike Vrabel and DC Shane Bowen credit for keeping their defense competitive after the Kevin Byard trade and recent injuries; just don't expect it to continue this Sunday if they have to face a relatively healthy version of Houston's offense led by Stroud and Collins.

Other Good Matchups: Jalen Hurts (vs. ARI), Dak Prescott (vs. DET), Patrick Mahomes (vs. CIN), Brock Purdy (at WAS), Nick Mullens (vs. GB), Tyrod Taylor (vs. LAR), Jarrett Stidham (vs. LAC), Will Levis (at HOU)

Running Backs 👍

D'Andre Swift (vs. ARZ) — 79% started

Start Over — Derrick Henry (at HOU), Austin Ekeler (at DEN), Joe Mixon (at KC)

Swift has been a success relative to pre-season expectations but a disappointment relative to what was expected after a stretch of big games in September and early October. He's done enough to keep the lead role, however, and rebounded last week with a 20-92-1 rushing line against the Giants to end a four-game run of single-digit PPR points. Swift should turn in another solid stat line this weekend, facing an Arizona defense that's given up the most fantasy points in the leagues to RBs this season, including 112 rushing yards and a TD to a previously dormant Khalil Herbert last week.

Javonte Williams (vs. LAC) — 61% started

Start Over — Najee Harris (at SEA), Jerome Ford (vs. NYJ), Gus Edwards (vs. MIA)

Jaleel McLaughlin reemerged as more of a factor last week, but Williams still led the Broncos in carries (11) and touches (14) with the team seemingly committed to his success amidst an inefficient and largely ineffective campaign. He's taken double-digit carries in every game besides the Week 4 contest he left early with an injury, and a recent matchup with this same Chargers defense (Week 14) led to his third-best fantasy score of the season (18.1 PPR points).

Other Good Matchups: Travis Etienne (vs. CAR), Derrick Henry (at HOU), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (vs. CIN), Josh Jacobs / Zamir White (at IND), Devin Singletary (vs. TEN), Ty Chandler (vs. GB)

Texans practice report: Defensive line battered with injuries https://t.co/RyaH9zkKOl
— Houston Chronicle (@HoustonChron) December 27, 2023

Wide Receivers 👍

Chris Olave (at TB) — 77% started

Start Over — Amari Cooper (vs. NYJ), DJ Moore (vs. ATL), DK Metcalf (vs. PIT)

Olave's 2023 has been more impressive in real life than in fantasy, as the box score doesn't show that he's battled through multiple injuries while also overcoming mediocre QB play and a conservative coaching staff. He's nonetheless over 1,000 yards through 14 appearances, after putting up 129 on the Rams last Thursday just four days after missing a game (his first absence of the year) with an ankle sprain.

It doesn't hurt that the Saints are fighting for their playoff lives this Sunday, which could mean a few extra snaps and routes relative to Olave's typical workload. It also doesn't hurt that the Bucs opened the week with CB Carlton Davis (concussion) and OLB Shaquil Barrett (groin) absent from practice; their veteran-laden defense finally appeared healthy last week but didn't stay that way for long.

Jayden Reed (at MIN) — 17% started

Start Over — George Pickens (at SEA), Jakobi Meyers (at IND), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. PIT)

Reed (toe) missed Sunday's win over Carolina but returned to a limited practice Wednesday, while Christian Watson (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (chest) started the week as non-participant. That doesn't automatically mean Reed will be back in, but if he is I'd expect him to be a focal point for the Packers, and not just because two of their other top four WRs appear unlikely to play.

Reed's reliance on screens, quick passes, jet-sweeps, etc. should play nicely against a Minnesota defense that leads the league in blitz rate (49%) and has given up the eighth most PPR points to wide receivers. Reed put up 4-83-0 on six targets back in Week 8 against the Vikings; this time we can expect a lower average per catch but also more touches to make up for it. The rookie can be started as a WR3 in PPR leagues if he suits up this Sunday.

Other Good Matchups: CeeDee Lamb & Brandin Cooks (vs. DET), Brandon Aiyuk & Deebo Samuel (at WAS), Justin Jefferson, K.J. Osborn & Brandon Powell (vs. GB) Nico Collins & Noah Brown (vs. TEN), Rashid Shaheed (at TB), Jerry Jeudy (vs. LAC), Demarcus Robinson (at NYG), Greg Dortch (at PHI), Darius Slayton (vs. LAR), Justin Watson (vs. CIN)

The Packers are about to play Justin Jefferson in a must-win game without the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history because he decided to make himself a captain before a game in his hometown.
A strange season for Jaire Alexander takes its most significant turn yet.
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) December 27, 2023

Tight Ends 👍

Darren Waller (vs. LAR) — 23% started

Start Over — Kyle Pitts (at CHI), Dalton Kincaid (vs. NE), Pat Freiermuth (at SEA)

Waller played 42 percent of snaps in his first game back from injured reserve and then 63 percent in his second game, combining for six catches and 71 yards on 11 targets. We could see another step forward in terms of playing time for his third week since the IR stint, and against a Rams defense that's allowed the fourth most PPR points (13.8) and fifth most yards per target (8.20) to tight ends this season.

Consider it a bonus that the Giants are turning back to Tyrod Taylor, whose previous run of playing time (Weeks 5-7) coincided with Waller's most productive stretch of the season. Waller has 24 of the 95 targets (25.2 percent) from Taylor this year, with 18 catches for 208 yards and a TD. I still wouldn't start Waller over someone who has been pretty reliable like Dalton Schultz or Jake Ferguson, but we can at least put the 31-year-old back on the board as a low-end TE1 (I have Waller and Isaiah Likely essentially tied at TE10 this week).

Other Good Matchups: Travis Kelce (vs. CIN), Chigoziem Okonkwo (at HOU), Cade Otton (vs. NO)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Jared Goff (at DAL) — 46% started

Start Instead — Matthew Stafford (at NYG), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. BAL)

Goff has severe home/road splits for a third time in his three years with the Lions, averaging 2.71 total TDs and 7.80 YPA in Detroit compared to 1.25 TDs and 7.04 YPA on the road. He's been good enough to consider away from home against bad defenses, but even that's been a risky proposition, as his only road outings with 17-plus fantasy points this season came against the Bucs and Chargers. If I'm rolling the dice on a QB with a difficult matchup this week, I'd rather go with Tua Tagovailoa at home against the Ravens.

Other Tough Matchups: Tua Tagovailoa (vs. BAL), Joe Flacco (vs. NYJ), Jake Browning (at KC), Desmond Ridder (at CHI), Bailey Zappe (at BUF)

Running Backs 👎

James Conner — 61% started

Start Instead — Aaron Jones (at MIN), Kenneth Walker (vs. PIT)

Three of Conner's four best fantasy games this season came in his past three outings, and he did it against the Steelers, Niners and Bears rather than beating up on lightweight defenses. You're obviously not benching him from an RB3 type after the recent showings, but many of the stacked teams in fantasy finals can probably find a safer option for Week 17 with a similar ceiling. My concern is that the Cardinals are double-digit underdogs and facing an Eagles defense that's given up the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs.

It's a concern that's highlighted because Emari Demercado got 38 percent of the snaps and routes in last week's loss to Buffalo, poaching eight targets and two carries from Conner in the process. Conner had a huge receiving line (5-67-1) nonetheless, but Demercado getting so much of the passing-down work represents a real threat to the veteran's scoring over these final two weeks.

Gus Edwards (vs. MIA) — 27% started

Start Instead — Devin Singletary (vs. TEN), Ty Chandler (vs. GB), Jaylen Warren (at SEA)

Edwards had 70 yards and a touchdown Monday at San Francisco in the Ravens' first game after the season-ending ACL injury to Keaton Mitchell. However, Justice Hill got more playing time (62%), more carries (10-9) and more targets (3-1), and the snap share could shift even more in his favor this week against a Miami defense that ranks fifth in both opponent YPC (3.7) and fantasy points allowed to running backs. Edwards always has pretty good odds to score a touchdown, but he might leave you with only two or three fantasy points if he doesn't.

Other Tough Matchups: David Montgomery (at DAL), Raheem Mostert / De'Von Achane (vs. BAL), Khalil Herbert (vs. ATL)

Wide Receivers 👎

Garrett Wilson (at CLE) — 70% started

Start Instead — Rashee Rice (vs. CIN), Tee Higgins (at KC), Calvin Ridley (vs. CAR)

We can safely say Trevor Siemian is no better than Zach Wilson (concussion) and quite possibly even worse. Wilson needed 15 targets to put up 76 yards against a horrible Washington defense last week, and he's now tasked with facing a Cleveland defense that's allowed the second fewest PPR points to wide receivers behind strong years from the standout CB trio of Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson and Greg Newsome. The only thing working in Wilson's favor here — besides his immense talent — is that the weather looks surprisingly tame for late December in Cleveland.

Drake London (at CHI) — 46% started

Start Instead — Nico Collins (vs. TEN), Zay Flowers (vs. MIA), Terry McLaurin (vs. SF)

London has been targeted seven times in two games since his 172-yard monster Week 14 against Tampa Bay, and while he should be more involved this Sunday the results won't necessarily be much better than what happened Weeks 15 and 16. He's facing a Bears defense led by PFF's No. 1 graded cornerback, Jaylon Johnson, whose strong work has helped Chicago allow the eighth-fewest PPR points (27.3 per game) and seventh least yards per target (7.01) to wide receivers over the past eight weeks. I also worry that coach Arthur Smith will be even more inclined to run the ball than usual in a road game played outdoors in cold weather.

Other Tough Matchups: Amari Cooper (vs. NYJ), Demario Douglas & DeVante Parker (at BUF), Tyler Boyd (at KC), Josh Downs (vs. LV)

Tight Ends 👎

Kyle Pitts (at CHI) — 50% started

Start Instead — Isaiah Likely (at MIA), Dalton Schultz (vs. TEN), Trey McBride (at PHI)

With 194 yards and two TDs the past four weeks, Pitts continues to do just enough to warrant starting but not quite enough to actually help fantasy managers. He's caught multiple passes in every game this year but has yet to top 15.7 PPR points and has reached double digits just four times.

This week he'll face a hot Chicago defense that just had four straight games with three or more turnovers Weeks 11-15 and then held the Cardinals to 16 points this past Sunday. While they've given up the sixth most PPR points to tight ends, the Bears have actually done well in terms of efficiency (6.3 YPT, fourth) and would rank much higher if not for a 14-target game for David Njoku and an 11-target outing for Logan Thomas. We already know Pitts doesn't offer that kind of volume upside even when the Falcons fall behind by multiple scores; He needs to be efficient to put up solid numbers, and that's a much taller task when he's playing outdoors against a good defense.