Exploiting the Matchups: Week 11 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

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Published on November 16, 2023

For the first time in what feels like months, we have an NFL slate full of exciting matchups. Even better that two of the premium games (CIN-BAL, PHI-KC) are in primetime, with the third night game (MIN-DEN on Sunday) shaping up as a pleasant surprise relative to the low expectations a few weeks ago when both teams were well below .500.

It's also a fun fantasy slate, as the four teams on bye (ATL, IND, NE, NO) won't exactly deprive us of many superstars, though RBs Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson certainly have a shot to become that over the final month and a half of the season.

On the other hand, QB injuries continue to impact scoring expectations, with Deshaun Watson (shoulder) now the fifth starter to suffer a season-ending injury, following Aaron Rodgers (Achilles), Anthony Richardson (shoulder), Kirk Cousins (Achilles) and Daniel Jones (ACL). Rodgers, of course, is still talking about making the quickest ever return from an Achilles' tear, though only if the Jets somehow manage to stay afloat in a tough AFC while playing the Bills, Dolphins (twice) and Texans over the next five weeks.

Given the joint hurdles of his physical recovery and the Jets staying competitive, there's a less-than-20-percent chance we actually see Rodgers on the field again this year. It's the Zach Wilson show until further notice, or at least until he's so awful that Tim Boyle looks tolerable.

While QBs have taken a beating, backfields around the league actually seem to be

While QBs have taken a beating, backfields around the league actually seem to be getting healthier, which is pretty weird for this time of year. There haven't been any season-ending injuries to starters since Nick Chubb (ACL) and J.K. Dobbins (Achilles) went down in September, and Alexander Mattison's concussion was the only new, significant injury to a starting RB the past two weeks.

James Conner and David Montgomery returned last week, Khalil Herbert (ankle) should be back this Sunday, and Kyren Williams (ankle) seems to be on track for Week 12. So much for the perennial logic of QB being deep and RB shallow...

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Jared Goff (vs. CHI) — 51% started

Start Over — Trevor Lawrence (vs. TEN), Sam Howell (vs. NYG), Brock Purdy (vs. TB)

The Chicago defense has improved considerably since September, but it's still far from a heavyweight matchup and may now have to play another game without middle-of-the-field linchpin Tremaine Edmunds (knee). That's a bigger issue against the Lions than it would be against other teams, as few offenses (if any) are more reliant on running backs, tight ends and slot-receiver production (as opposed to perimeter WRs).

Goff has been excellent in home games ever since joining the dome-based Lions, and while the splits are less extreme this year, it's strictly because he's been better on the road (rather than worse in Detroit). He has eight passing TDs and two rushing scores in four home games, with a 72.2 completion rate and 8.1 YPA.

Other Good Matchups: C.J. Stroud (vs. ARI), Brock Purdy (vs. TB), Jordan Love (vs. LAC)

Running Backs 👍

Brian Robinson (vs. NYG) — 64% started

Start Over — Raheem Mostert (vs. LV), James Cook (vs. NYJ), Najee Harris (at CLE)

The Giants' run defense perhaps hasn't been quite as bad as their... um, everything else... but it also hasn't been good by any means, with only two teams allowing more rushing yards to running backs (111.7 per game) and only five allowing more YPC (4.50). Enter Robinson, coming off his second-best fantasy score in 22 career games, albeit driven by receiving production in a 29-26 loss to the Seahawks.

He won't repeat the 6-119-1 receiving line or even come close, but he also won't need to with the Commanders favored by nine points over what's arguably the worst team in the league right now. Robinson should get it done on the ground this Sunday, and he's even got a shot to handle a larger share of the backfield than usual with Antonio Gibson absent from practice Wednesday due to a toe injury. Gibson has dealt with injuries to his right foot and/or big toe every year since entering the NFL, and his snaps could be scaled back even if he's cleared to play before the weekend.

Darrell Henderson (at GB) — 16% started

Start Over — Chuba Hubbard (vs. DAL), D'Onta Foreman (at DET), Keaton Mitchell (vs. CIN)

Based on what I've seen in my own fantasy leagues, I suspect people are somewhat underrating Henderson because the Rams offense completely cratered in a Week 9 loss to Green Bay with Brett Rypien playing quarterback. Prior to that, Henderson had 19 touches for 66 yards (with a TD) and 15 touches for 85 yards in his two games since rejoining the Rams. Backfield mate Kyren Williams (ankle) is still ineligible for one more week, leaving Henderson and Royce Freeman to share backfield work against a Seattle defense that's given up the sixth most fantasy points to running backs, including four scores of 15-plus PPR points the past two weeks (Keaton Mitchell, Gus Edwards, Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson).

Other Good Matchups: Tony Pollard (at CAR), Aaron Jones & AJ Dillon (vs. LAC), De'Von Achane (vs. LV), Devin Singletary (vs. ARZ), Ty Chandler (at DEN)

Wide Receivers 👍

Tank Dell (vs. ARZ) — 58% started

Start Over — Marquise Brown (at HOU), Adam Thielen (vs. DAL), Jordan Addison (at DEN)

Dell is the only one of Houston's top four WRs not listed on the Week 11 injury report, after the past two games featured high-water marks for fantasy production (29.6 PPR points on 11 targets Week 9) and then target volume (18.9 points on 14 targets Week 10). It's possible all four receivers end up playing, to be fair, but even then I'd like Dell's chances to post an efficient stat line while being emphasized in the gameplan.

Arizona has allowed 9.44 YPT to wide receivers, third worst in the league, and it seems there's nothing punching-bag CB Marco Wilson can do to get demoted from the starting lineup. That's partially because the team's other perimeter corners are 30-year-old journeyman Antonio Hamilton and undrafted rookie Starling Thomas, both suboptimal options. The best hope for Arizona is rookie third-round pick Garrett Williams, but he's almost exclusively played in the slot, where Dell has taken only 22.8 percent of his snaps. If we've learned nothing else the past few years, it's that small, fast WRs can be successful on the perimeter now that the NFL is intent on strict enforcement of pass interference, illegal contact and defensive holding.

Courtland Sutton (vs. MIN) — 35% started

Start Over — George Pickens (at CLE), Jakobi Meyers (at MIA), Tyler Boyd (at BAL)

Sutton largely has gotten by on touchdowns rather than volume, and while it feels especially unsustainable in the context of a non-elite, run-first offense, we're now well into Month 3 of the trend and also have seen a few spike games for his target numbers (11 apiece in Weeks 3, 10). He's got a sturdy 23.7 percent target share overall, heading into a home matchup with a Minnesota defense that's given up the ninth most fantasy points to WRs (38.5 PPR per game) while deploying a subpar group of cornerbacks. The CBs may be even worse than usual this Sunday, as Akayleb Evans (calf) left Sunday's win over the Saints and now is absent from practice to start Week 11.

Other Good Matchups: Brandon Aiyuk & Deebo Samuel (vs. TB), Terry McLaurin (vs. NYG), Christian Kirk & Calvin Ridley (vs. TEN), DeAndre Hopkins (at JAX), Tank Dell & Nico Collins (vs. ARI), Jerry Jeudy (vs. MIN), Jayden Reed (vs. LAC), Trey Palmer (at SF)

Tight Ends 👍

Trey McBride (at HOU) — 52% started

Start Over — Cole Kmet (at DET), Jake Ferguson (at CAR), David Njoku (vs. PIT)

The recent production speaks for itself, and McBride has a good opportunity to stay hot now that Kyler Murray is his QB and he's facing a defense that's allowing the fourth most PPR points (14.8 per game) to tight ends. It doesn't hurt that the Texans opened the week of practice without two starting linebackers — Denzel Perryman (suspension), Henry To'oTo'o — and safety Jimmie Ward (hamstring), potentially making their middle-of-the-field coverage even worse than usual. The overall game environment looks similarly promising; the 48.5 O/U is our high-water mark for Week 11, with Arizona's implied total of 21.75 ranking second among underdogs (Rams - 22.5).

Other Good Matchups: Sam LaPorta (vs. CHI), Cole Kmet (at DET), Luke Musgrave (vs. LAC),

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Joshua Dobbs (at DEN) — 28% started

Start Instead — Kyler Murray (at HOU), Justin Fields (at DET)

While run defense remains a problem for the Broncos, their veteran secondary has overcome a slow start and is playing the way most expected before the season. No QB has reached 20 fantasy points against Denver since Week 4, despite the past four games including two matchups with Patrick Mahomes and one with Josh Allen. As impressive as Dobbs has been, he's obviously still a far cry from those guys, and it isn't clear at this point if he'll have Justin Jefferson (hamstring) in the lineup come Sunday. The Vikings have a modest implied total of 20 points, playing on the road against a surging defense that has the best homefield advantage in the league (because of the altitude, not the fans... for the record).

Other Tough Matchups: Jalen Hurts (at KC), Josh Allen (vs. NYJ), Kenny Pickett (at CLE)

Running Backs 👎

Najee Harris (at CLE) — 70% started

Start Instead — James Conner (at HOU), Raheem Mostert (vs. LV), Isiah Pacheco (vs. PHI)

The Deshaun Watson news improves Harris' odds for favorable game script, but he has nearly everything else working against him, including Jaylen Warren's recent revelation that he was informed of a promotion prior to last week's 23-19 win over Green Bay. While Harris still got the start and 16 carries, Warren finished with just one fewer carry and took a career-high 52 percent of snaps. The slight change lowers Harris' weekly floor/ceiling a bit, and he's unlikely to achieve one of his better outcomes in a road game against a stout defense that's allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to RBs.

Chuba Hubbard (vs. DAL) — 27% started

Start Instead — AJ Dillon (vs. LAC), Keaton Mitchell (vs. CIN)

Hubbard had a decent stretch of three games with Miles Sanders either inactive or barely playing, but the walls caved in last Thursday when Hubbard had only 11 touches for 39 yards on 50 percent snap share in a 16-13 loss to the Bears. His snap reduction mostly was due to Sanders playing more in passing situations, which is a big problem in an offense with so little cumulative production to go around. Hubbard needs those cheap checkdown targets to put up decent fantasy scores most weeks, and even more so when the Panthers are facing a top defense. The Cowboys have just that, allowing the fourth fewest points (18.3 ppg) and eighth fewest PPR points to running backs (17.8). They're also favored by 10.5, despite being on the road.

Other Tough Matchups: Rachaad White (at SF), Isiah Pacheco (vs. PHI), Jerome Ford (vs. PIT), D'Onta Foreman (at DET)

Wide Receivers 👎

Puka Nacua (vs. SEA) — 64% started

Start Instead — Cooper Kupp (vs. SEA), DeVonta Smith (at KC), Mike Evans (at SF)

Most of us don't have the luxury of benching someone with Nacua's target share, especially now that Matthew Stafford (thumb) is back to full practice participation and ready to play. Others do have that luxury, though, in part because Nacua was either a late-round pick or waiver add and thus resides on some teams that are absolutely stacked at WR. The main point here is not to expect a repeat of his Week 1 coming out party against Seattle. The Seahawks have been tough on wide receivers since September, allowing only 6.1 YPT (second best) over the past eight weeks, with each of their top three cornerbacks holding a top-43 PFF grade at the position. Also note that Nacua was limited in practice Wednesday, apparently still bothered by the knee swelling that had him on the injury report prior to his Week 10 bye.

Gabe Davis — 42% started

Start Instead — Courtland Sutton (vs. MIN), Zay Flowers (vs. CIN), Rashee Rice (vs. PHI)

Despite improving his catch rate to a career-high 60 percent, Davis has been as inconsistent as ever this season, scoring 20 PPR points on three occasions and finishing with 5.2 or less four times. One of those was a Week 1 loss to the Jets, who continue to shut down WRs (league-low 21.7 PPR points per game) thanks in large part to their phenomenal cornerback trio of Sauce Gardner, DJ Reed and Michael Carter — none of whom is listed on the Week 11 injury report. After back-to-back down weeks Davis' per-game averages for 2023 (3.3 catches for 49.0 yards and 0.50 TDs on 5.5 targets) look awfully similar to those from 2022 (3.2 receptions for 55.7 yards and 0.47 TDs on 6.2 targets)

Other Tough Matchups: Amari Cooper (vs. PIT), George Pickens & Diontae Johnson (at CLE), Khalil Shakir & Gabe Davis (vs. NYJ), Tyler Boyd & Trenton Irwin (at BAL), Jonathan Mingo (vs. DAL), Tutu Atwell (vs. SEA)

Tight Ends 👎

Logan Thomas (vs. NYG) — % started

Start Instead — Cole Kmet (at DET), Luke Musgrave (vs. LAC), David Njoku (vs. PIT)

This isn't a bad matchup in the traditional sense; the Giants don't do anything particularly well right now, including coverage over the middle of the field. My concern is that Thomas is never a priority in Washington's offense, instead riding lofty team passing volume to a decent fantasy year. All three of his games with 50 or more yards came in losses, along with two of his three touchdowns, and the checkdown targets may not be there Sunday with the Commanders heavily favored (-9) and facing a defense that just got smacked by Dallas. We'll likely see more Brian Robinson carries than usual, and quite possibly a larger share of the passes going to frequent first reads Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson.