DFS Tournament Guide: NFL Week 7 Strategy

I'm not sure what it is about this season where I repeatedly find myself leaning toward balanced DFS lineups full of mid-priced players, rather than the stars-and-scrubs construction that generally seemed to offer more upside in the past. It could just be a matter of injuries and slow starts for a few top players, or perhaps second- and third-year breakouts that still haven't been fully priced in.

Whatever the case, it looks like more of the same Week 7, with the $5,300-5,900 price range at WR standing out as the most fruitful ground for harvesting value. There's also some fun stuff happening a bit lower down the price scale at tight end, where Austin Hooper, Mark Andrews and Darren Waller all appear headed for another week of heavy usage.

As always, I'm happy to discuss strategy in the comments section below, or on twitter (@RotowireNFL_JD).

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1:00, 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the vast majority concentrated at the very top. Risk is our friend.

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to price — the guys that are great plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our tourney lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few "chalk" picks that have strong odds to outperform their salaries. These players, along with a couple passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• WR Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. JAX ($5,600)

Boyd has been surprisingly inconsistent for a receiver who sees a high volume of short targets, with two games above 25 DK points and four games below 15. It's probably just a matter of the limited six-week sample, considering he has the third-most targets (60) and is tied for the fourth-most catches (60) among wide receivers. The $5,600 price tag makes Boyd a bargain relative to his season average of 15.6 DK points, and that's before we factor in the likelihood of positive regression for both touchdowns (one) and yards per target (6.9).

• WR Kenny Golladay, DET vs. MIN ($5,800)

Here we have another talented, high-volume receiver coming at a discount in a tricky matchup, albeit with a target profile (13.4 aDOT) much different from Boyd's (7.0 aDOT). Averaging 18.1 DK points with at least eight targets each week this season, Golladay is producing at the WR1/2 borderline but is priced closer to the WR2/3 line (in season-long terms). He's fourth in the league with 120.8 air yards per game and tied for ninth at 9.0 targets. The Vikings once again have an excellent defense, but it's been problematic for running backs and tight ends more so than wide receivers so far this year.

Honorable Mentions: RB Chris Carson, SEA vs. BAL ($6,500); RB Devonta Freeman, ATL vs. LAR ($5,400); QB Lamar Jackson, BAL at SEA ($6,800); TE Mark Andrews, BAL at SEA ($4,900); TE Hunter Henry, LAC at TEN ($4,000)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of any tournament lineup, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the contest, hoping to take advantage of a tight game where both teams are still chucking the ball around late in the fourth quarter. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses)

Ravens (22.75) at Seahawks (25.75)

It feels weird to stack a game with two teams in the top five for run-play rate, but I guess that's what happens when one quarterback is his team's leading rusher and the other is completing 72.4 percent of his passes for 9.0 yards per attempt. Lamar Jackson ($6,800) and Russell Wilson ($6,600) offer 30-point upside even in the toughest matchups, and they'll both be facing inconsistent, mediocre defenses this weekend.

The Seahawks have been the better team overall and are favored by three points, but injuries are starting to take a serious toll, with Will Dissly (Achilles) out for the season and three others starters — LT Duane Brown (biceps), DE Ezekiel Ansah (ankle), FS Bradley McDougald (back) — missing practice both Wednesday and Thursday. Of course, the Ravens appear headed for another week without Marquise Brown (ankle), leaving a rotating cast of bums to pick up snaps at wide receiver.

With Tyler Lockett ($6,600) priced at WR8 on the main slate and likely facing shadow coverage from Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey on the other side of the ball, this is the rare occasion when I'll stack a game without using any of the wide receivers. If forced to choose, I'd go with DK Metcalf ($4,800) for the home run potential, though it feels like a bit of a stretch after he lost some snaps to David Moore the past three weeks.

I don't have much interest in figuring out the split between Luke Willson ($3,000) and Jacob Hollister ($2,900), but we can pencil in Mark Andrews ($4,900) for a seventh straight game with seven or more targets, potentially getting a boost if McDougald isn't able to play. Either way, the Seahawks have been extremely friendly to tight ends, allowing 8.8 YPT and the fourth-most fantasy points per game. A Jackson-Andrews stack has already been a strong play three times this year, with both players outperforming their DFS salaries in Weeks 1, 2 and 6.

My favorite play on the other side is Chris Carson ($6,500), coming off three straight games with at least 22 carries, two targets and 76 percent of snaps. The Baltimore run defense has been inconsistent more so than outright bad, but we don't need the matchup to be great when we're getting Carson's combination of workload, talent and price.   

• Best Stack: QB Jackson + RB Carson + TE Andrews

Rams (28.75) at Falcons (25.75)

Another week, another opportunity to employ game stacks featuring the Falcons and their opponent. In addition to the pitiful, oft-discussed defense, Atlanta's pass-dominant approach on offense leads to extra volume on both sides of the ball. Week 7 brings a matchup with a Rams offense ranked second in unadjusted pace (24.09 seconds per snap) and situation-neutral pace (27.59), with the Falcons sitting 10th in both categories (27.07, 29.46).

Long story short, there's plenty of evidence supporting this game having the highest over/under (54.5) of the week, a full four points above Cardinals-Giants. The real question is figuring out which players to use, starting with Matt Ryan ($6,300) and Jared Goff ($6,200) at surprisingly reasonable prices. Ryan has been the better player in the better offense this season, but he'll be up against a real NFL defense, while Goff has no such concern.

It's easy enough to make a case for most of the key skill-position players in this game, though I'll probably avoid Mohamed Sanu ($4,600) in a primary matchup with slot ace Nickell Robey-Coleman. I already made a case for Calvin Ridley ($5,300) in my matchups column earlier this week, though it was partially dependent on Julio Jones ($8,000) doing battle with Jalen Ramsey (back), who may or may not be available. 

Austin Hooper ($5,300), Cooper Kupp ($7,400), Robert Woods ($5,900), Brandin Cooks ($5,400) and Devonta Freeman ($5,400) all make sense in various lineups, with Darrell Henderson ($3,500) setting up as the A+ value of the week if Todd Gurley (quad) and Malcolm Brown (ankle) can't play. There's almost too much to decipher here, with each selection involving the opportunity cost of missing out on another player. It'll be hard to finalize a lineup before we know if Gurley and/or Brown will be active.

• Best Stack: QB Goff + WR Kupp + WR Woods + WR Ridley

Cardinals (23.75) at Giants (26.75)

The Cardinals stack is our other weekly ritual, along with the aforementioned Falcons stack (it sure was convenient when they played each other last week). The pricing on DK no longer appears favorable for individual Arizona players, but a matchup with the Giants' leaky pass defense nonetheless brings Kyler Murray ($6,700) and Larry Fitzgerald ($6,100) into play.

I will say that I've become skeptical of the Arizona offense apart from Murray and David Johnson ($7,800), with Kliff Kingsbury cutting down his use of four-wide formations and also spreading out the reduced WR snaps that remain. I discussed the recent development in my Hidden Stat Line column earlier this week, noting that the shift away from 10 personnel has corresponded with better results, i.e., the trend is likely to continue.

The other side of this game actually seems a bit more interesting, though we're undoubtedly paying up for the matchup with all of Daniel Jones ($6,100), Saquon Barkley ($8,900), Golden Tate ($5,800), Sterling Shepard ($5,700) and Evan Engram ($6,500). If Shepard can't clear the concussion protocol, deep threat Darius Slayton ($4,100) might actually be the best value among the Giants' pass catchers. Engram should pile up volume and production in the premier TE matchup, but the short passes alone may not be enough for Jones to enjoy a ceiling game.

• Best Stack: QB Jones + WR Slayton + TE Engram

RB-Defense Pairing

We can pair a running back with his team's defense to double our bet on favorable game script in certain matchups. Just keep in mind that the scoring correlations aren't nearly as strong as those between quarterbacks and pass catchers, so it isn't worth forcing into a lineup unless the prices for each individual commodity make sense. We also need to account for specialized backfield roles, i.e., using Marlon Mack rather than Nyheim Hines in conjunction with the Indianapolis defense.   

• RB Latavius Murray ($5,100) + Saints D/ST ($2,900) at CHI

The Saints defense is my top streaming pick for season-long leagues, coming off three consecutive standout performances with the help of a second-year breakout from DE Marcus Davenport and a streak of hot play from cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Given what we've seen from Mitchell Trubisky and the rest of the Chicago offense — with apologies to Allen Robinson — an implied total of 20.75 points actually feels too high. 

The other half of this selection is contingent on Alvin Kamara (ankle) not playing, with Murray offering three-down potential if that happens. It isn't clear how much Sean Payton would use Dwayne Washington or Zach Zenner, if at all, in the event of a Kamara absence. The Bears defense remains among the best in the league, but Josh Jacobs showed that it's beatable with DE Akiem Hicks (elbow) on injured reserve, busting out a 26-123-2 rushing line in London two weeks ago. The Saints' perennially excellent offensive line is up to the task of any matchup, ranking second in PFF's pass-blocking grades and 10th in the run-blocking grades.

Honorable Mention: Frank Gore ($5,200) + Bills D/ST ($4,300) vs. MIA; Marlon Mack ($6,000) + Colts D/ST ($2,000) vs. HOU

High-Priced Hero

• RB Leonard Fournette, JAX at CIN ($7,000)

Now that Royce Freeman finally squeaked into the end zone, Fournette is the No. 1 bet for positive touchdown regression, somehow scoring just once from 141 touches and 773 scrimmage yards. It's not like he's stuck in a terrible offense — the Jags enter Week 7 with 10 passing touchdowns (t-9th) and 14 field-goal attempts (t-5th), ranking ninth in offense DVOA (6.1%), ninth in yards per play (6.0) and 14th in yards per drive (32.2). Meanwhile, the Bengals defense is 31st in DVOA (19.3%), 31st in yards per play (6.5) and 29th in yards per drive (37.1), allowing league-high marks for both YPC (5.3) and rushing yards per game (184.5). Or, to put it more simply, the Bengals stink and Fournette doesn't. The matchup is too good to worry about high ownership.

Honorable Mention: WR Michael Thomas, NO at CHI ($7,800); WR Cooper Kupp, LAR at ATL ($7,400)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players carrying high ownership without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. Recency bias is often to blame, but in some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are other good alternatives at the same position.

• RB Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. ARZ ($8,900)

Fading Barkley is always a bit scary, but I truly believe it's the right move if there's even a sliver of doubt about him seeing his usual workload. The first game back from a high-ankle sprain qualifies for creating that minimum level of doubt, and it's not like we'll have the benefit of low ownership to help justify the risk — I don't even know if it's possible for Barkley to go below 10-to-15 percent. There's a clear talent drop off going from Barkley to Leonard Fournette, but the latter has a safer workload at a much lower price in a similarly favorable matchup. 

Other Fades: RB Dalvin Cook, MIN at DET ($8,000); WR Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. BAL ($6,600); QB Josh Allen, BUF vs. MIA ($6,500)

The SMASH Spot

Volume is king, no doubt. But we still need to account for efficiency, pinpointing situations that give players good odds to outperform their typical marks for YPA, YPC or YPT.

• WR T.Y. Hilton, IND vs. HOU ($5,900)

Hilton is a popular topic of discussion whenever he's about to face the Texans, averaging 5.4 catches for 103 yards and 0.6 TDs in 14 regular-season matchups, including three of his four games with 175 or more yards. I mostly think it's silly to make decisions based on stats that occurred under the context of different quarterbacks, offensive coordinators and defensive players, but it's at least interesting to note that Hilton has done a number on Texans cornerback Jonathan Joseph, who hopes to return from a hamstring injury for Sunday. 

With Bradley Roby (hamstring) already expected to be absent, the Texans will need significant contributions at cornerback from 22-year-old Lonnie Johnson and 28-year-old retread Phillip Gaines. The rookie hasn't given up many catches into his coverage, but it's probably just a matter of time given that he holds PFF's No. 106 grade (42.6) among 109 qualified CBs. Gaines, who hasn't played enough to qualify, is graded even lower at 36.7 after he got beat for 5-84-2 (plus two drops) on nine targets last week in Kansas City, per PFF. There's also the matter of Hilton being too cheap for a player with his combination of talent and role security as the far-and-away No. 1 option.

Honorable Mention: WR Robert Woods, LAR at ATL ($5,900); WR Calvin Ridley, ATL vs. LAR ($5,300); TE Evan Engram, NYG vs. ARZ ($6,500)

The Bargain Bin

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX at CIN ($5,400)

RB Tarik Cohen, CHI vs. NO ($4,600)

RB Mark Walton, MIA at BUF ($3,200)

WR Auden Tate, CIN vs. JAX ($4,500)

WR Darius Slayton, NYG vs. ARZ ($4,100)

WR Taylor Gabriel, CHI vs. NO ($3,900)

WR Jake Kumerow, GB vs. OAK ($3,600)

WR Trevor Davis, OAK at GB ($3,300)

TE Dawson Knox, BUF vs. MIA ($3,300)

TE Luke Willson, SEA vs. BAL ($3,000)

Injury Situations

The "Sunday Scramble" doesn't need to be stressful. We can formulate plans ahead of time for the best way to respond once inactive lists are released.

• RB Todd Gurley (quad) and Malcolm Brown (knee), LAR at ATL

The Rams' offensive line has been terrible, but Darrell Henderson will still be a slam-dunk DFS play if Gurley and Brown both end up inactive. The rookie is faster than both of his backfield mates, and he looked sharp in limited action during last week's vomfest against the Niners.

• RB Alvin Kamara (ankle), NO at CHI

Ineffective on a sprained ankle last week, Kamara was held out of practice Wednesday and Thursday. I won't use Kamara if he unexpectedly ends up playing, but his presence would steer me away from Latavius Murray and might also lower my interest in Michael Thomas.

• WR Sterling Shepard (concussion), NYG vs. ARZ

Shepard at $5,700 isn't too interesting now that he won't be the only show in town, but his presence would slightly lower my expectations for Evan Engram and Darius Slayton.

• WR Marquise Brown (ankle), BAL at SEA

There's need to mess with the other Baltimore wide receivers. This is just a reminder that Brown's absence would solidify lofty target volume for Mark Andrews. It's also a slight negative for Lamar Legend, but rushing stats reign supreme in any discussion of the fleet-footed QB.

• CB Jalen Ramsey (back, contract?), LAR at ATL

Ramsey may be recovering from an injury and learning a new scheme, but I still prefer Julio Jones' chances for a blow-up game if he's facing a different cornerback.

Weather Watch

With no wind projections above 10 mph and no expectation of heavy precipitation, Week 7 looks squeaky clean from a weather standpoint. Per usual, it will still be a good idea to double-check the forecasts Sunday morning.

Adjusting for FanDuel Prices

The prices listed in this article are from DraftKings, and while most of the logic applies to any DFS site, there are a few specific changes I'll need to apply for FanDuel:

• Kyler Murray ($7,700) still seems a bit too cheap, priced with the second tier of QBs rather than the first. There's also a solid argument for Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600) and David Johnson ($7,400), whereas DK prices discourage the Arizona stack.
• I'm not so sure about fading Saquon Barkley ($8,600) when his price is so much closer to Dalvin Cook ($8,300) and Leonard Fournette ($7,900) than it is on DK.
• The price on Tyler Boyd ($5,600) is...well, it's really something else. Play him.
• I'll take a risk on Tyler Lockett ($6,500) dealing with Marlon Humphrey at this price.
• Add D.J. "baby" Chark 🦈 ($6,600) Will Fuller ($6,300) and Calvin Ridley ($5,500) to the always-robust list of underpriced WRs on FanDuel.
• Dawson Knox ($4,800) is fun, cheap and facing the Dolphins. I guess Tyler Kroft could steal some targets, but the price makes it a fine risk to accept.
• Compared to DK, Evan Engram ($6,800) is priced a bit further below George Kittle ($7,100) and much closer to the rest of the pack at TE.
• I think it's worth paying up for the Bills defense ($5,500) on a site with softer pricing and some smack-you-in-the-face value at WR. I also like the Lions at $3,500, hosting Minnesota.

Good Luck!